Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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The number of public protests in Jerusalem over Shabbat business closures will increase over the next 30 days, as secular and liberal groups mobilize in response to the Cafe in the Alley incident. Reference class: Jerusalem Shabbat protests (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a protest wave within 30 days of a high-profile closure. Confidence adjusted up due to the coffee cart action and Schwartz's explicit call to action.
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The IDF will not announce the closure of any ammunition production lines within the next 30 days, despite the warning letter, as the government will likely provide a short-term budget extension to avoid immediate shutdown. Reference class: Israeli defense budget crises (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for short-term stopgap funding. Confidence adjusted up due to the public nature of the warning and political pressure.
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The fragmentation of the Israeli Right will lead to at least one new party alliance or merger announcement within 90 days, as smaller parties seek to avoid falling below the electoral threshold.
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The public and political pressure on Netanyahu regarding the October 7 investigations will intensify over the next 30 days, as new evidence of his failure to read them emerges.
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Milei will not secure a bilateral meeting with UK Prime Minister over the Falklands within 90 days, as the shift in tone alienates British officials. Reference class: Argentine-UK diplomatic engagements on Falklands (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a bilateral meeting within 90 days of a sovereignty statement. Confidence adjusted up due to Milei's prior pro-UK stance and the UK's likely refusal to engage.
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The US will not announce a withdrawal of naval forces from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, despite internal debate, as the risk of a global energy crisis remains high.
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Syria and Chevron will not sign a final agreement for the Basra-Baniyas pipeline within 90 days, as the security situation in Syria and the scale of investment remain prohibitive.
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The investigation of the child-marriage activist will result in an indictment within 30 days, given Judge Melamed's ruling that the suspicion remains at high intensity. Reference class: Israeli investigations of public figures for familial offenses (2018-2025); base rate ~55% for indictment within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the judge's explicit finding of danger and the existence of a signed contract as concrete evidence.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a final ruling on the Police Internal Investigations Department Law within 30 days, likely striking it down or requiring significant amendments.
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The number of violent incidents in the southern Hebron Hills will decrease over the next 90 days, as the arrest of 13 suspects disrupts the local network. Reference class: Israeli police crackdowns on organized violence in the West Bank (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for a temporary reduction in incidents within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of retaliatory attacks.
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The disciplinary proceedings against police spokesman Aryeh Doron will result in a formal reprimand or suspension within 30 days, as the Police Disciplinary Department moves swiftly on high-profile internal cases.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a temporary injunction requiring the advisory committee to provide security for Yair Golan within 90 days, given the police's own high risk assessment.
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The number of anti-Semitic incidents in Spain will continue to rise over the next 90 days, driven by the ongoing political fallout from the Ceuta migration crisis.
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Iran will not resume full IAEA inspector access to its enrichment facilities within 90 days, as the regime continues to conceal its nuclear activities amid US pressure. Reference class: Iran-IAEA access disputes (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for full access resumption within 90 days of a report. Confidence adjusted up due to the long duration of the block (since June 2025) and the escalating US strikes.
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The Ja'far Farah sexual harassment allegations will lead to his formal withdrawal from the Hadash list within 30 days, as internal and external pressure mounts.
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The Haifa District Attorney's Office will file additional charges against Khamis Suaed within 90 days, expanding the indictment beyond the initial ISIS-related offenses.
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Additional European countries will announce purchases of Israeli air-defense systems within 30 days, following the Achilles Shield deal and the LORA test. Reference class: European air-defense procurement from Israel (2021-2025); base rate ~80% for follow-on deals within 30 days of a major test. Confidence adjusted up due to the LORA test's strategic timing amid tensions with Russia.
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The IDF will confirm the elimination of the remaining 10-15 Hezbollah terrorists in the Ali Taher ridge tunnels within 90 days, as the siege and military activity continue. Reference class: IDF tunnel clearance operations in southern Lebanon (2024-2025); base rate ~70% for full clearance within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the difficulty of confirming kills in tunnel networks.
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The frozen NIS 400,000 in the Haifa District Court rape compensation ruling will remain frozen for at least 30 days, with no appeal or payment order issued. Reference class: Israeli civil compensation rulings with frozen portions (2017-2024); base rate ~55% for no change within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the case and the defendant's likely financial constraints.
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Turkey will not formally apply for SCO full membership within 90 days, as the diplomatic cost of antagonizing NATO partners outweighs the symbolic benefit.
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Likud will not fall below 19 seats in polls within 30 days, as the party's core base remains stable despite Gottlieb's defection.
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Israel will not impose retaliatory sanctions against Britain within 90 days, despite Sa'ar's threat, as the diplomatic cost of escalating with a key European partner outweighs the benefit.
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The tension between Haredi enlistment and rabbinical opposition will intensify over the next 90 days, as the 30% enlistment increase is met with more public orders to leave the IDF. Reference class: Haredi draft crises in Israel (2017-2024); base rate ~60% for escalation after an enlistment surge. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature of the Salim order.
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Yair Golan will file a defamation lawsuit against Sara Netanyahu within 30 days if she does not issue a public apology.
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Britain will announce its comprehensive package of measures regarding Israeli settlements within 30 days, as Miliband's stated timeline narrows the window for delay.
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China will announce new investment deals with Egypt worth at least $5 billion within 30 days of Xi's visit, as part of the Belt and Road expansion.
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Violence against public transportation drivers will continue to be reported at a rate of at least 40 cases per month over the next 30 days, as the underlying safety conditions remain unaddressed.
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Iran will increase its naval reconnaissance and harassment operations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea within 90 days, leveraging the resurrected general's plans.
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Sara Netanyahu's conspiracy claim against Yair Golan will continue to dominate Israeli political news cycles over the next 7 days, with at least two additional major political figures publicly condemning or defending the statement.
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The number of investigations into IDF medication trafficking will increase over the next 90 days following the arrest of pharmacist Victoria Motola, as authorities expand their probe into the Glilot base pharmacy network.
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Finland will not reverse its UNRWA funding decision within 90 days, as the domestic political calculus tied to the April elections will outweigh international pressure.
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The Smotrich-Feiglin technical bloc will be finalized and registered within 30 days, but will not include Ben Gvir or Vinter.
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Yair Golan will ultimately recommend Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, despite his current non-commitment.
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The compensation ruling for the middle school student attacked by classmates will not be appealed by the municipality within 30 days, despite its claim the attack was a 'prank.'
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The settlement expansion in the Hebron Hills will accelerate over the next 90 days, with at least one of the planned settlements (Meged or Ma'ale Enav) seeing families move in.
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The number of military police investigations into looting in Gaza and Lebanon will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days, as the gap between Chief of Staff Zamir's public condemnation and the low indictment rate draws media scrutiny.
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The Advisory Committee on Security Affairs will recommend approving Shin Bet security for Gadi Eisenkot within 90 days, but the ministers may delay or reject the recommendation.
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The US will announce a partial drawdown of troops from CENTCOM within 90 days, as the fleet readiness crisis forces reallocation to other theaters.
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The US will reduce the tempo of its military strikes against Iran within 30 days, as the unsustainable campaign assessment forces operational adjustments.
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Shas will not secure an explicit exemption from conscription as a formal coalition condition within 30 days, as other coalition partners will resist the demand.
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The teacher shortage in Israel will not be significantly reduced within 90 days, as no new major recruitment or salary reform is announced.
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Iran will not return to nuclear negotiations with the US within the next 30 days, as it conditions talks on the US first fulfilling commitments, a precondition the administration is unlikely to meet.
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The Treasury will transfer at least part of the 15 billion shekels in agreed defense funds within 30 days, as the security establishment's warnings about the budget gap intensify.
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Hezbollah will not begin a substantive disarmament process within 90 days, as linking it to Hamas/Islamic Jihad disarmament provides a delaying mechanism.
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The Trump administration will appeal Judge Wise's ruling on visa revocations for pro-Palestinian activity within 90 days, escalating the constitutional challenge.
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The Gantz-Erdan merger talks will fail to produce a joint list by the September 8 deadline, as the leadership dispute remains unresolved.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party will not cross the electoral threshold in the October 27 elections, leading to its dissolution.
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Saudi Arabia will seek alternative military partners for the Houthi campaign within 30 days, after the US refusal to lead.
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The Joint List will not be fully reunited within 90 days, as internal disagreements over seat distribution persist.