Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
657 forecasts
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Iranian-backed attacks on Kuwait will continue at a rate of at least 10 per week over the next 30 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation into the incident of five Israeli citizens crossing into Syria within 7 days.
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The Ministry of Labor will announce a new enforcement campaign on construction site safety within 90 days, following 23 construction worker deaths since the start of the year.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The IDF will report achieving the collapse of nearly 100% of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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Additional US fighter squadrons will deploy to Jordan or Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of the F-16 squadron arrival.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a pilot program to address Arab-Jewish workplace tensions in hospitals within 30 days, following the Abraham Initiatives study.
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The Israel Fire and Rescue Services will issue a public advisory or operational update within 7 days regarding increased fire risk due to continued hot and dry weather, following the two large fires on July 18.
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Magen David Adom will report an increase in drowning-related calls along the Mediterranean coast over the next 30 days, compared to the same period last year, following three drownings on a single Saturday.
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Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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At least one additional Arab state will join the military coalition against the Houthis within 90 days, following the pattern of Kuwait and the UAE.
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US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, targeting additional economic nodes beyond Bandar Abbas.
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Police will announce a formal task force or dedicated investigative unit for domestic violence in Bat Yam within 30 days, following the stabbing of a pregnant woman and the 82% femicide increase.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
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The National Insurance Institute will face increased public scrutiny or a Knesset committee hearing regarding caregiver background checks within 30 days.
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The incoming Colombian government will formally withdraw from the ICJ genocide lawsuit against Israel within 90 days, following the agreement between Sa'ar and Escobar.
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The use of explosive devices by criminal organizations in Israel will see a measurable increase in the next 90 days, reversing the reported 30% decrease.
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The US-Israel relationship will face a public rift within 90 days, as Arab diplomatic pressure on Trump to distance from Netanyahu intensifies.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation or disciplinary action against the soldier who criticized General Bluth within 30 days.
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The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially navigable for commercial shipping over the next 30 days, despite Iranian threats, as both sides avoid a full blockade.
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The IDF will secure an alternative procurement of attack helicopters within 90 days to compensate for the missed Apache deal.
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The disparity in shelter access between Jewish and Arab communities will be addressed by a government committee within 90 days, following media pressure.
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Ben-Gurion University will issue a public statement clarifying its policy on campus speech within 30 days, in response to the Parhi incident.
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Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
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The Privacy Protection Authority will issue new guidelines for age verification in online sales of smoking products within 90 days, following the Smoking Cessation Initiative's call.
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The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
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Tnuva will face increased regulatory scrutiny or a market competition probe within 30 days following the cottage cheese shortage.
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The Israeli Defense Ministry's strategic plan with India will yield a formal memorandum of understanding or joint defense project announcement within 90 days.
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At least one additional suspect will be arrested in connection with the Japanika grenade attacks within 90 days.
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Iran will retaliate for the US airstrike that killed seven servicemen within 30 days, likely through a proxy attack on US or Israeli targets.
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Bnei Brak's gender-segregated street policy will face a legal challenge at the High Court of Justice within 90 days.
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At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
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The IDF will announce measures to address the transport vehicle shortage in Gaza reserve brigades within 30 days, following public criticism.
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The Houthis will attempt to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb within 90 days, but will not fully close the strait.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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The controversy over PEN America's stance on cultural boycotts will lead to at least one more prominent resignation or public protest from a board member within 90 days.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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The IDF will increase enforcement along the Syrian border to prevent civilian crossings, following the detention of activists and the 'Pioneers of Bashan' incident.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
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Houthi attacks on Saudi targets will continue, with at least one more missile or drone strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility within 30 days.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.