Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
443 forecasts
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The Likud Central Committee's approval of eight reserved places for Netanyahu will be challenged or annulled by a party court within 90 days.
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The Mosli-Jerushi conflict will see at least one additional grenade or shooting incident within 30 days, breaking the current truce.
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Saeed Jalili's Paydari movement will intensify public opposition to the Hormuz deal, with at least two major statements or protests within 30 days.
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The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
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Suhaila Ghanem will be publicly honored by at least one medical or Druze community organization within 90 days of her retirement.
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The News 12 investigation into abuse at the Prime Minister's residence will lead to a formal inquiry or police investigation within 90 days.
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The Knesset's gender segregation law will face increased public and institutional opposition over the next 30 days, with at least one additional medical school dean publicly condemning it.
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The Together party's seat count in Maariv polls will remain below 20 over the next 30 days, failing to recover from the 15-seat crash.
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The lawsuit filed by former residence employee Y. will lead to a formal investigation or court hearing within 90 days.
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The US will increase the number of destroyers in the Mediterranean to at least four within 30 days, responding to the naval shortage warning.
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The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
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The soldier arrested for shooting the Palestinian child will face formal charges within 30 days, given the IDF's stated investigation.
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Serbia's defense exports to Israel will continue to grow over the next 90 days, driven by the Elbit Systems deal and the 2026 intelligence-sharing agreement.
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The reserve manpower shortage in southern Lebanon will become more acute, with at least one additional brigade reporting understaffing in official channels within 90 days.
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Yoav Segalovitz will formally announce his candidacy on the Ra'am slate within 30 days, making him the party's first Jewish candidate.
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Ben Gvir's public opposition to the ceasefire draft will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement or action calling for continued military operations in Gaza.
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Rebeca Grynspan will face increased scrutiny from permanent Security Council members over her stance on Israel-Palestine issues, potentially affecting her candidacy.
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The detention of Avraham Hadi will be extended at least once more beyond the current four-day order, as the investigation into the News 12 brick-throwing continues.
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The number of Arabs killed in crime-related circumstances will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, given the current rate of 158 since the beginning of the year.
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The reserve duty burden will become a more prominent public issue, with at least one major protest or Knesset debate specifically addressing the gap between official limits and actual service.
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The IDF will conduct at least one additional controlled demolition of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days, following the Beaufort operation.
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The internal pressure on police spokesman Arie Doron will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional senior officer publicly joining the call for his dismissal.
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The IDF will announce new disciplinary measures for unauthorized base departures within 30 days, following the Givati mutiny.
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At least one more prominent figure will announce joining a party or forming a new political list within 30 days, as the October 27 elections approach.
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The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
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The coalition tensions over the Chief Rabbinate appointment will lead to a public rift between Shas and Religious Zionism within 90 days.
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Haredi enlistment will continue to rise over the next 90 days, but the rate of increase will slow as rabbinic opposition intensifies.
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Likud will intensify legal actions against media outlets perceived as critical over the next 30 days, citing election law violations.
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The US and Israel will sign a new MoU within 90 days that shifts from direct FMF to a joint R&D fund, reflecting Netanyahu's proposal.
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International human rights organizations will issue a joint report condemning conditions in Israeli prisons, citing the al-Barsh case, within 90 days.
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At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The IDF will publicly disclose evidence linking Hezbollah's ceasefire violations to Iranian direction within 90 days.
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The NYPD will officially classify the hammer attack at the Jewish Institute of Queens as a hate crime within 90 days, despite initial belief it was random.
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The Likud party will formally adopt digital primaries for its candidate selection within 30 days.
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The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
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The United States will impose new restrictions on Israeli military operations in the West Bank within 90 days, following the Turmus Ayya incident.
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Pressure on Lapid to dissolve the union with Bennett will result in a public announcement of separation within 30 days.
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Iran will execute at least 5 of the 10 young men sentenced to death within 90 days, despite UN calls to halt.
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Internal coalition tensions over the draft exemption will lead to at least one public ultimatum from a Haredi party within 90 days.
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The Finance Ministry will raise at least one major tax rate within 90 days after the elections, rather than implementing structural reforms.
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The number of Hezbollah drone incursions into Israeli airspace will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 90 days.
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The IDF will face increased pressure to reclassify the Samaria incident as a battle rather than 'operational activity' within 90 days.
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At least one new Israeli government initiative to support orphans in Gaza will be announced within 90 days, following the Social Development Ministry's national platform launch.
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The internal Iranian power struggle between civilian leadership and Revolutionary Guards will become more visible, with at least one public policy rift reported in major media within 90 days.
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At least one additional snakebite incident in residential areas of Beit Shemesh will be reported in the next 90 days.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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South Korean women will not achieve an average life expectancy exceeding 90 years by 2030, as predicted, due to low birth rates and aging population pressures.
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The Welfare Ministry will open fewer than 50 new places in locked youth facilities within 90 days, despite the current waitlist of 132 children.
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Israel's academic growth rate among 25-34 year olds will remain below the OECD average for the next 90 days, with no new major policy initiatives announced to reverse the trend.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.