Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
434 forecasts
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The number of military police investigations into looting in Gaza and Lebanon will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days, as the gap between Chief of Staff Zamir's public condemnation and the low indictment rate draws media scrutiny.
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The Advisory Committee on Security Affairs will recommend approving Shin Bet security for Gadi Eisenkot within 90 days, but the ministers may delay or reject the recommendation.
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The US will announce a partial drawdown of troops from CENTCOM within 90 days, as the fleet readiness crisis forces reallocation to other theaters.
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The teacher shortage in Israel will not be significantly reduced within 90 days, as no new major recruitment or salary reform is announced.
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Hezbollah will not begin a substantive disarmament process within 90 days, as linking it to Hamas/Islamic Jihad disarmament provides a delaying mechanism.
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The Trump administration will appeal Judge Wise's ruling on visa revocations for pro-Palestinian activity within 90 days, escalating the constitutional challenge.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party will not cross the electoral threshold in the October 27 elections, leading to its dissolution.
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The parole board's decision to reduce Monder Issa's sentence will face a formal appeal by the state or the victim's family within 30 days.
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Iran will execute at least 100 more people within the next 30 days, maintaining the current pace of executions.
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The US will formally request allied nations to replenish Patriot and THAAD stocks within 90 days, acknowledging the depletion from the war with Iran.
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The Joint List will not be fully reunited within 90 days, as internal disagreements over seat distribution persist.
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The share of Arab Israeli doctors will remain stable or increase slightly over the next 90 days, as no new medical schools are announced to address the shortage.
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Russia will not launch a major new offensive in Ukraine within 90 days, despite the perception of US weakness, as its own military capacity remains constrained.
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Nepal will accept international aid for flood relief within 90 days, as the death toll and missing persons numbers strain domestic capacity.
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NATO will announce a formal plan to shift more defense responsibilities to European members within 90 days, following Colby's push.
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The state will not establish a dedicated psychological rehabilitation fund for released hostages within 90 days, maintaining reliance on crowdfunding.
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The Bank of Israel will hold its interest rate steady for at least the next 90 days, as rising US bond yields constrain the ability to cut despite low local inflation.
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The PIMS hospital fire in Islamabad will trigger an official inquiry report that identifies specific safety violations within 90 days.
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The number of reported violent incidents involving knives carried by minors will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year within 90 days.
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Turkey's naval buildup, including the construction of 47 warships, will lead to at least one public diplomatic protest from a NATO ally (e.g., Greece, France) within 90 days.
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No new mine-laying incidents will be reported in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days, following Trump's threat of destruction.
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The Hadera business targeted by two grenade attacks will be the site of a third violent incident within 90 days.
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The IDF will deploy at least one additional regular brigade to the West Bank within 90 days, as concerns over a third intifada persist.
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The use of AI-directed autonomous drones in combat will be reported in at least one new conflict zone within 90 days, following the precedent set in Ukraine.
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The share of Israeli parents reporting academic harm to their children will remain above 85% in any new survey within 30 days, as the school year begins and teacher shortages persist.
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Qatar will take delivery of at least one Boeing KC-46A tanker within 90 days of the US approval, despite Israeli objections.
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The state comptroller election will not be completed within 90 days, leaving the position vacant through the election period.
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The number of kites launched from Gaza into Israel will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days compared to the current baseline, as the IDF's strike in Shati camp fails to deter the practice.
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Israel will bar at least one more European politician or delegation from entering the country within 90 days, citing anti-Israel positions.
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The number of shootings in Israel will remain at or above the current rate, with at least one new shooting incident reported per week over the next 90 days.
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The share of National-Religious men in IDF reserve duty will continue to grow relative to their population share over the next 90 days, as secular participation declines further.
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AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will decline measurably over the next 90 days, as at least one major Democratic candidate will explicitly refuse AIPAC endorsement or funding.
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Gideon Sa'ar will face increased criticism from within the coalition for his remarks on the 2021 government, potentially leading to a public rebuke from a coalition partner within 90 days.
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The PanStar Acro's Arctic voyage will be followed by at least one additional commercial transit by a South Korean vessel within 90 days, despite Western concerns.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on homelessness within the next 90 days, driven by the gap between official counts and NGO-reported numbers.
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The 100-gambler raid in Haifa will be followed by at least one additional police operation targeting illegal gambling in the same city within 90 days.
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Piracy attacks off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden will continue at a rate of at least one per month over the next 90 days, exceeding the 2025 baseline.
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Japan will publicly distance itself from the ICC blacklisting decision over the next 30 days, issuing a formal statement of concern or abstaining from a related vote.
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Public pressure on the government over the handling of missing persons cases like Haymanot Kasau will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee hearing or parliamentary question specifically referencing the case.
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Gilad Erdan's new party Achdut will fail to cross the electoral threshold in at least one major poll within 90 days.
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The IRGC will conduct at least one publicly reported test of a new ballistic missile or drone system within 90 days, as a show of force in response to Trump's economic threats.
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The new 'Third Camp on the Right' merger will fail to cross the electoral threshold in the next major public opinion poll, polling below 3.25% of the vote.
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Israeli banks will partially reduce but not fully sever correspondent banking ties with Palestinian Authority banks over the next 90 days, as the dilemma between legal risk and economic collapse remains unresolved.
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The crisis of trust in Arab society's leadership will deepen, as indicated by a follow-up poll showing a further decline in trust among younger Arab Israelis.
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The IDF will publicly restrict or ban the use of Chinese-made drones on front lines within 90 days, following the leakage warnings.
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The US naval blockade of Iran will lead to at least one publicly reported incident of Iranian harassment or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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Over the next 90 days, the Ukrainian government will not hold wartime elections, but will announce a formal proposal for a legal framework to enable them, following Fedorov's call.
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The indictment against Abdullah Gargawi will be upgraded to include charges of attempted murder or terrorism offenses within 90 days.
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Hezbollah's monthly salary payments to activists will decline in real value or frequency over the next 90 days, as Iranian funding prioritizes weapons rebuilding.
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The Knesset will hold a public hearing on the failure to protect northern educational institutions within 30 days.