Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
656 forecasts
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.
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The Israeli government will announce a plan to establish a state-run correspondent bank within 30 days to prevent disruption of PA transfers.
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The number of Hezbollah drone incursions into Israeli airspace will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 90 days.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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The IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one incident of reservists using physical force against Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria within 30 days.
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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At least one new Israeli government initiative to support orphans in Gaza will be announced within 90 days, following the Social Development Ministry's national platform launch.
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The IDF will face increased pressure to reclassify the Samaria incident as a battle rather than 'operational activity' within 90 days.
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Iranian oil revenues will continue to flow despite the US naval blockade, with at least one new report of a tanker breaching the blockade within 30 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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The US will announce a new military deployment to the Persian Gulf within 30 days in response to Iranian threats.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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The IDF will expand its operation in Judea and Samaria beyond current reinforcement within 30 days, despite Chief of Staff Zamir's earlier opposition.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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Brent crude oil will remain above $95 per barrel for at least 15 of the next 30 trading days.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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Jordan will expel at least one Iranian diplomat within 30 days in response to missile strikes on its territory.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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Israel's academic growth rate among 25-34 year olds will remain below the OECD average for the next 90 days, with no new major policy initiatives announced to reverse the trend.
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The shekel will remain at or above NIS 3.05 per USD for at least the next 30 days.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
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Meta will expand StoryKit availability beyond Mexico within 30 days.
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The IDF will announce at least one more targeted elimination of a Hamas commander in Gaza within 7 days.
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Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
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The Lebanese army will deploy in at least two more villages in southern Lebanon within 30 days as part of the pilot program.
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Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.
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Iraqi Shia groups under the 'Islamic Resistance' will carry out at least one attack on US forces in Iraq within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on emergency preparedness for senior citizens in the Gaza envelope within 90 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
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The US will announce a new arms production initiative for long-range missiles within 30 days.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more wave of strikes against Iranian military targets within 7 days.
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The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
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The Elem report's findings will prompt a Knesset committee hearing on youth violence within 90 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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Iranian-backed attacks on Kuwait will continue at a rate of at least 10 per week over the next 30 days.