Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
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Efforts to form a new right-center satellite party will become public within 7 days, aiming to capture centrist voters while remaining aligned with Likud.
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Internal pressure on Netanyahu to cancel Likud primaries will intensify over the next 30 days, as party comptroller's ruling and MK opposition create legal and political hurdles.
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The IDF will expand operations to the Zaharani River line within 30 days, as part of a containment strategy.
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IDF will maintain operational pressure in southern Lebanon without an immediate political decision on Nabatieh, limiting major advances for the next 7 days.
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Over the next 30 days, the debate over integrating women into the Armored Corps will escalate, leading to either a formal policy revision or a wider coalition crisis.
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Turkey will increase its diplomatic mediation between the US and Iran over the next 30 days, leveraging its relationship with both sides.
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US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days as Trump seeks to force a diplomatic deal.
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Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days without significant sanctions relief.
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Tensions between Likud and Shas will escalate over the Basic Law: Torah Study, leading to a coalition crisis within 30 days.
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Haredi street protests against conscription will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one large-scale demonstration drawing over 10,000 participants.
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Israel will seek to counter the railway deal by accelerating diplomatic and economic ties with Greece and Cyprus.
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Public sharing of personal trauma on Israeli social media will increase over the next 30 days as a coping mechanism during ongoing rocket attacks.
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The number of violent incidents in Israel's Arab sector will increase over the next 30 days, as family feuds and organized crime continue unchecked.
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Interest in US air travel from Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, driven by advance booking trends.
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Iran will not close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within 30 days, despite threats, as doing so would risk a wider US military response.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, following the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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Iran will launch at least one more missile or drone salvo toward Israel within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the IDF's preparation for further fire.
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US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days, but will not expand into a full-scale operation as Trump seeks to maintain diplomatic options.
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Trump will not declare 'total victory' over Iran within two weeks; instead, negotiations will continue without a breakthrough.
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US-Iran negotiations will continue over the next 30 days, with no final agreement reached, as Iran demands sanctions relief upfront.
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The shekel will weaken further against the dollar over the next 30 days as security tensions persist and the Bank of Israel refrains from intervention.
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Hezbollah will launch additional rockets or drones at northern Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of tit-for-tat strikes.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, despite the current quiet, as part of the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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US pressure on Israel to de-escalate with Iran will increase, as Trump seeks to avoid a broader regional war.
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The number of murder victims in the Palestinian community will exceed 130 within 30 days, given the current rate of violence.
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The EU will expand sanctions on Iranian entities within 30 days, following the recent sanctions on two Iranians and an IRGC unit for the Hormuz blockade.
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Hezbollah will retaliate for the Beirut strike with a significant cross-border attack within 30 days, given the new Israeli policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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Coalition internal tensions over ultra-Orthodox conscription will intensify as Shas pushes for equalization of yeshiva students with soldiers.
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The IDF will face increasing public and legal pressure to release data on ultra-Orthodox conscription within 30 days, potentially leading to a court order.
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Berri's ceasefire offer will not lead to a formal agreement within 30 days due to Hezbollah's refusal to disarm.
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The Knesset will hold a preliminary vote on granting immunity to Tali Gottlieb within 7 days, given the coalition's insistence and majority.
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France will announce new sanctions on Israeli settlers and entities within 30 days, given Barrot's threat of imminent action.
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The number of civilian gun owners in Israel will exceed 350,000 within 30 days, given the current trajectory of simplified licensing and the security situation.
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SOCAR will increase its LNG supply to Egypt by at least 20% within 30 days, as regional demand for non-Iranian gas rises.
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Israeli arrest campaigns in the West Bank will continue at a similar or higher frequency over the next 7 days, targeting at least one academic or public figure.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the pattern of daily violations and the IDF's admission of no hermetic solution.
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The US will not announce an end to security aid to Israel by July 4, 2026, despite Stutzman's push, as Trump's Iran strategy requires maintaining leverage over Israel.
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The Ramallah government will fail to secure full clearance fund transfers from Israel within 30 days, maintaining its deficit above 1 billion shekels monthly.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given the release of tank-attack footage and the IDF's continued strikes.
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At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the riot outside Justice Solberg's home.
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The Knesset will not pass the law splitting the Attorney General's office before the next election, given opposition from Deputy AG and the need to amend 250 laws.
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The US and Iran will announce a framework agreement on nuclear negotiations within 30 days, despite Trump's ultimatum.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile or drone attack targeting US or allied forces in the Gulf within 7 days.
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US and Iran will not finalize a nuclear deal within 7 days, given the deadlock and $24B demand.
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Israel and Hezbollah will not reach a finalized ceasefire agreement within 7 days, given Berri's 'vague' criticism and the gap between Ravid's optimism and Trump's Iran-first strategy.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire.
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At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the extended detentions and the pattern of escalation.
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The Likud convention will fail to approve primary regulations by June 25 due to the frozen powers, leading to a court challenge.
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The US House will not pass any resolution to remove troops from Lebanon within 7 days, given the 92-324 vote blocking Tlaib's resolution.
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Hezbollah will conduct at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire and the drone strike on UNIFIL.