Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
434 forecasts
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The total amount of ketamine seized in the Cyprus investigation will not exceed 500 kg within 90 days, as the current haul of 390 kg is already large and further seizures are likely to diminish. Reference class: large-scale drug seizures in Cyprus (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for exceeding initial haul by 30% within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ongoing nature of the investigation.
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Ofer Vinter's Amcha Yisrael party will not pass the electoral threshold in the next elections, as Likud's campaign against him will consolidate the right-wing vote.
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The number of new students at the Schechter Institute will not increase by more than 10% within 90 days, as the 25% growth over two years is a medium-term trend. Reference class: Israeli academic enrollment growth rates (2015-2025); base rate ~5% per quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to reported momentum from the current news cycle.
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The Rasha Zaid candidacy in Windsor will not result in a formal investigation by the Ontario Human Rights Commission within 30 days, as the threshold for investigation is high. Reference class: Human rights complaints against candidates in Ontario (2010-2025); base rate ~30% for formal investigation within 30 days of a complaint. Confidence adjusted down due to the public nature of the statement, increasing political pressure.
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The number of olive trees uprooted in the West Bank will exceed 30,000 by end of 2026, as the rate of 15,534 in six months suggests continued destruction. Reference class: Ynet reporting on uprooted trees (2026); base rate ~30,000/year. Confidence adjusted up due to the accelerated pace.
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The Jerusalem Urban Food Forum will not publicly report rescuing more than 1,000 tons of food within 90 days of its launch, as the coordination mechanism is still being built. Reference class: municipal food rescue programs in cities of similar size (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for reaching 1,000 tons in the first quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of coordinating 2,200 businesses.
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The number of Israeli cultural events abroad that are boycotted or protested will not decrease by more than 20% within 90 days, given the sustained post-Oct. 7 polarization. Reference class: Boycotts of Israeli cultural events (2023-2025); base rate ~5% month-over-month decline. Confidence adjusted up due to the Venice Biennale protests as a high-profile case.
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The number of new immigrants from North America in 2026 will exceed 4,000, as the summer wave of 2,200 suggests continued momentum through the fall. Reference class: Nefesh B'Nefesh annual aliyah figures from North America (2015-2025); base rate ~70% for hitting annual forecasts. Confidence adjusted down due to potential security deterioration after the High Holy Days.
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The indictment of Rabbi Shmueli will not lead to a conviction for incitement to violence within 90 days, as the defense will argue his statements were protected religious speech. Reference class: Israeli incitement prosecutions against religious figures (2010-2025); base rate ~40% for conviction within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the difficulty of proving direct incitement to violence from a prayer-like statement.
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The number of 18- to 29-year-olds who learned about 9/11 in school will not increase by more than 5 percentage points over the next 90 days, as curriculum changes are slow. Reference class: US education policy change rates (2000-2025); base rate ~10% for a 5-point shift in 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the 25th anniversary media push.
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The IDF will publicly announce the destruction of at least one more significant Hezbollah tunnel network in southern Lebanon within 90 days, beyond the Ali al-Taher ridge.
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The number of families returning to Kibbutz Kfar Aza will not exceed 80 within 90 days, given the slow pace of return and the deep trauma and lack of trust among residents.
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The leadership change in Degel HaTorah from Gafni to Asher will not lead to a significant shift in the party's stance on Haredi conscription within 90 days, as Asher's institutional loyalty outweighs generational change. Reference class: Israeli Haredi party policy shifts after leadership transitions (2003-2025); base rate ~20% for a substantive policy change within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to Asher's deep roots in the Lithuanian yeshiva world.
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The Yemeni government counteroffensive will not retake Sana'a from the Houthis within 90 days, but will make territorial gains in at least one of the four governorates mentioned.
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The Netanyahu bloc will not reach 61 seats in the October 27 election, given the fragmentation on the right and the failure to recruit Haddad. Reference class: Israeli right-wing bloc performance in elections with threshold-dwelling parties (2003-2025); base rate ~30% for reaching 61 seats. Confidence adjusted up due to Winter's marginal position and the 640,000 first-time voters who lean anti-Netanyahu.
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The Houthi attacks on Saudi cities will not trigger a formal activation of the Mecca Agreement's military clause within 90 days, as Pakistan will prefer diplomatic pressure.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to combat bullying in schools within 90 days, despite Herzog's declaration of a state of emergency.
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The investigation into the Prinok affair will expand to include additional supermarket branches or suspects within 90 days.
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The loophole exploited by Strock and Otzma Yehudit for separate party registration will not be closed by legislation within 90 days, as the coalition lacks the majority and will to amend the party funding law before the election.
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The Syrian government will not adopt a new constitution guaranteeing equality for religious minorities within 90 days, as internal Islamist factions resist. Reference class: Syrian transitional constitutional processes (2011-2025); base rate ~15% for adoption within 90 days of a minister's call. Confidence adjusted up due to Kabawat's minority position and the segregation controversy.
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The UAE will not publicly confirm or deny the Haaretz report of a pre-October 7 warning within 90 days, maintaining its current stance of nondenial. Reference class: UAE official responses to leaks about private diplomatic communications (2015-2025); base rate ~25% for a definitive confirmation or denial within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the UAE's consistent policy of avoiding public confirmation of sensitive intelligence sharing.
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The IDF will formally integrate the new unmanned systems and AI branch into operational command structures within 90 days of its Hanukkah inauguration, with at least one documented combat use of a new AI-directed drone. Reference class: IDF branch integration timelines after formal establishment (2015-2025); base rate ~50% for documented combat use within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the existing operational tempo and the Iran strike precedent.
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Public debate over the treatment of Arab students in Israeli universities will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee discussion or a minister's statement responding to the Adalah report. Reference class: Israeli Knesset responses to civil society reports on minority rights (2015-2025); base rate ~55% for a formal response within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the report's specific allegation of 'apartheid' and the upcoming election context.
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The Ministry of Health will not announce a new method for detecting or neutralizing the brain-eating amoeba in the Sea of Galilee within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli environmental health policy changes after public health warnings (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new method within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ministry's explicit admission of no tools.
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Gulf state public criticism of the US security partnership will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one more senior official from a Gulf state (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or Bahrain) publicly calling for independent security capabilities. Reference class: Gulf state public statements on US security partnership (2015-2025); base rate ~35% for a senior official's public call for independence within 90 days of a major war. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit calls from Qatar and UAE within 24 hours, suggesting a coordinated push.
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The Bazan refinery relocation plan will not receive formal government approval within 90 days, given the $5-6 billion cost and the tension with maintaining refining capacity in Haifa.
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The High Court ruling on expatriate voting will not be overturned by legislation within 90 days, as the coalition lacks the necessary majority and political will. Reference class: Israeli legislative responses to High Court rulings (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for an override within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the narrow scope of the petition (100 people) and the coalition's focus on other issues.
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The US will not announce a new diplomatic framework for Iran nuclear talks within 90 days, as the administration shifts toward a military posture.
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The Likud will not finalize an agreement to bring Gabi Ashkenazi onto its list within 90 days, as internal party resistance and Ashkenazi's conditions will stall the offer. Reference class: Likud high-profile candidate recruitment (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for successful integration within 90 days of an offer. Confidence adjusted up due to Ashkenazi's independent political history and Likud's existing factional tensions.
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The US Treasury will designate at least one additional bank for facilitating Iranian shadow banking within 90 days, as 'Operation Economic Outcast' expands its target list.
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Huckabee will not make another public visit to a Palestinian village in the West Bank within the next 90 days.
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Milei will not secure a bilateral meeting with UK Prime Minister over the Falklands within 90 days, as the shift in tone alienates British officials. Reference class: Argentine-UK diplomatic engagements on Falklands (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a bilateral meeting within 90 days of a sovereignty statement. Confidence adjusted up due to Milei's prior pro-UK stance and the UK's likely refusal to engage.
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The fragmentation of the Israeli Right will lead to at least one new party alliance or merger announcement within 90 days, as smaller parties seek to avoid falling below the electoral threshold.
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The number of violent incidents in the southern Hebron Hills will decrease over the next 90 days, as the arrest of 13 suspects disrupts the local network. Reference class: Israeli police crackdowns on organized violence in the West Bank (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for a temporary reduction in incidents within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of retaliatory attacks.
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Syria and Chevron will not sign a final agreement for the Basra-Baniyas pipeline within 90 days, as the security situation in Syria and the scale of investment remain prohibitive.
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The number of anti-Semitic incidents in Spain will continue to rise over the next 90 days, driven by the ongoing political fallout from the Ceuta migration crisis.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a temporary injunction requiring the advisory committee to provide security for Yair Golan within 90 days, given the police's own high risk assessment.
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The Haifa District Attorney's Office will file additional charges against Khamis Suaed within 90 days, expanding the indictment beyond the initial ISIS-related offenses.
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Iran will not resume full IAEA inspector access to its enrichment facilities within 90 days, as the regime continues to conceal its nuclear activities amid US pressure. Reference class: Iran-IAEA access disputes (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for full access resumption within 90 days of a report. Confidence adjusted up due to the long duration of the block (since June 2025) and the escalating US strikes.
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The IDF will confirm the elimination of the remaining 10-15 Hezbollah terrorists in the Ali Taher ridge tunnels within 90 days, as the siege and military activity continue. Reference class: IDF tunnel clearance operations in southern Lebanon (2024-2025); base rate ~70% for full clearance within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the difficulty of confirming kills in tunnel networks.
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The frozen NIS 400,000 in the Haifa District Court rape compensation ruling will remain frozen for at least 30 days, with no appeal or payment order issued. Reference class: Israeli civil compensation rulings with frozen portions (2017-2024); base rate ~55% for no change within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the case and the defendant's likely financial constraints.
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Turkey will not formally apply for SCO full membership within 90 days, as the diplomatic cost of antagonizing NATO partners outweighs the symbolic benefit.
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The tension between Haredi enlistment and rabbinical opposition will intensify over the next 90 days, as the 30% enlistment increase is met with more public orders to leave the IDF. Reference class: Haredi draft crises in Israel (2017-2024); base rate ~60% for escalation after an enlistment surge. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature of the Salim order.
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Israel will not impose retaliatory sanctions against Britain within 90 days, despite Sa'ar's threat, as the diplomatic cost of escalating with a key European partner outweighs the benefit.
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Violence against public transportation drivers will continue to be reported at a rate of at least 40 cases per month over the next 30 days, as the underlying safety conditions remain unaddressed.
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Iran will increase its naval reconnaissance and harassment operations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea within 90 days, leveraging the resurrected general's plans.
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The number of investigations into IDF medication trafficking will increase over the next 90 days following the arrest of pharmacist Victoria Motola, as authorities expand their probe into the Glilot base pharmacy network.
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Yair Golan will ultimately recommend Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, despite his current non-commitment.
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Finland will not reverse its UNRWA funding decision within 90 days, as the domestic political calculus tied to the April elections will outweigh international pressure.
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The settlement expansion in the Hebron Hills will accelerate over the next 90 days, with at least one of the planned settlements (Meged or Ma'ale Enav) seeing families move in.