Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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Netanyahu will intensify personal attacks on Liberman over the next 30 days, as the Polymarket gap widens and he seeks to consolidate right-wing voters.
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Public debate in Canada about the adequacy of the Canada Community Security Program will intensify over the next 30 days, following the Belleville synagogue shooting.
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The IDF will demolish the home of terrorist Kadri Samara in Bidu within 7 days, following the completed mapping of the home. Reference class: IDF home demolitions for attackers who killed an Israeli civilian (2020-2025); base rate ~85% within 7 days of mapping. Confidence adjusted down due to potential legal challenges or operational delays.
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At least one additional NATO member state will publicly revise its threat assessment of a Russian attack upward within 90 days, following the Czech intelligence chief's warning.
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Ben Gvir's demand to execute the Neve Tzuf terrorist will not result in an execution order being signed within 90 days, as legal and procedural hurdles delay the process.
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At least one additional Latin American government will adopt the term 'genocide' to describe Israeli actions in Gaza within 30 days, following the Broad Front's lead in Uruguay.
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Syria will not sign a formal economic cooperation agreement with the US within 90 days, as the Russian military resupply at Tartus complicates any binding commitment to Washington.
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The 102,000 new Russian and Ukrainian immigrant voters will not coalesce into a single voting bloc for any one party, as their diverse political backgrounds and lack of a unifying leader will fragment their electoral impact across at least three different lists. Reference class: Immigrant voting patterns in Israeli elections (1990s Russian aliyah, 2010s French aliyah); base rate ~70% for fragmentation across multiple parties in a first election. Confidence adjusted down due to the absence of a dedicated immigrant party or leader.
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Indonesia will not announce any formal normalization steps with Israel within 30 days, as President Prabowo's pro-Palestinian speech signals a shift away from previous signals. Reference class: Indonesian government announcements on Israel normalization (2020-2026); base rate ~20% for a formal step within 30 days of a pro-Palestinian speech. Confidence adjusted up due to the strength of the 'Free Palestine' declaration.
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Turkey will publicly protest the Israeli-Greek naval exercise within 90 days, escalating its rhetoric against Israel's military cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
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President Herzog will not issue a public pardon for Netanyahu before the next election, as his 'solely substantive' stance suggests he will wait for a political resolution.
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At least one additional cat species will be formally recognized by a major taxonomic authority within 90 days, following the Leopardus tilcayo discovery and genetic findings that may raise the count to 45.
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The Tenufa LaTzafon administration will announce at least one additional major infrastructure project (budget >100 million shekels) for a northern town other than Kiryat Shmona within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli government regional development announcements (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for a second major project within 90 days of a first. Confidence adjusted up due to the one billion shekel flexible budget allocation.
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Ben Gvir's public complaint about Netanyahu not answering his calls will lead to at least one additional coalition MK publicly expressing frustration with the Prime Minister's communication style within 30 days.
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The Archbishop of Canterbury will issue a formal statement explaining the revocation of the Hubert Walter Award within 30 days, as the lack of a public reason creates pressure for transparency. Reference class: Church of England public statements on award revocations (2000-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a controversial revocation. Confidence adjusted up due to media attention and the 9/11 anniversary context.
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Netanyahu's secret offer of Israeli intelligence and military assistance to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis will not result in a signed bilateral agreement within 90 days, given the Saudi condition of a two-state solution.
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The family of Fatima al-Rajabi will file a formal complaint against the Israel Police for alleged negligence in the search for her, within 90 days.
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The Haifa Magistrate's Court will extend the remand of the Lahav 433 officer's relative at least once more within 30 days, as the investigation into the stabbing continues.
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Iran will complete additional fortification work at the Mount Makoush complex, as satellite images show ongoing earth-moving activity, within 90 days. Reference class: Iran's underground facility fortification cycles (2020-2025); base rate ~80% for observable work continuing over a 90-day window. Confidence adjusted down slightly due to potential diplomatic pause ahead of UNGA.
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The public confrontation between Shelly Mesch Yogev and Aharon Haliva will lead to at least one additional bereaved family publicly demanding a personal meeting with a former senior IDF officer within 30 days.
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The US will not announce a formal sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, despite the State Department approval, as congressional review and regional objections delay the final contract.
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The public campaign by Barak Bar's parents for mandatory cognitive testing of elderly drivers will gain at least one Knesset sponsor within 30 days.
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The US will announce a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks within 30 days, as the Treasury's BitBank action signals a broader crackdown. Reference class: US sanctions rounds on Iran (2020-2025); base rate ~70% within 30 days of a prior sanctions action. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of diplomatic restraint ahead of UNGA.
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The US will announce a formal agreement to station additional refueling aircraft at an alternative Israeli airfield (e.g., Nevatim or Ovda) within 90 days of the Ramon nighttime curfew.
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At least one more former hostage will publicly criticize the government's handling of the hostage crisis in a Yom Kippur-related context within 90 days.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal request to China for mediation with the Houthis within 30 days, following its reported turn to Beijing for help curbing the group.
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The number of U.S. states adopting social studies standards that include 'ancestral homeland of the Jews' language for Israel's founding will increase from 1 to at least 2 within 90 days.
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The divergence between rising national average rents and localized oversupply-driven rent drops will widen over the next 90 days, with at least one more Israeli city reporting a year-over-year decline in new contract rents.
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The Swedish center-left bloc led by Magdalena Andersson will succeed in forming a government within 90 days, given its narrow 176-seat majority.
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The number of reported incidents involving heavy weapons (LAW missiles, RPGs, anti-tank missiles) in criminal contexts in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the recent attacks in Jaljulia, Kafr Qasim, and Sajur indicate a pattern.
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The controversy over the release of Agam Tzarfati's footage will lead to a formal investigation by the Ministry of Justice or the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee within 30 days.
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Saudi Arabia will conduct at least one more airstrike in Taiz province within 30 days, as the Houthi advance near Bab al-Mandeb continues. Reference class: Saudi airstrikes in Taiz (2020-2025); base rate ~60% per month during active Houthi offensives. Confidence adjusted up due to the confirmed Houthi advance and Saudi airstrikes on the Al-Barah Bridge.
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Public attacks by coalition MKs on Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional MK publicly labeling him a 'Kaplanist' or similar political epithet. Reference class: Knesset MK attacks on Supreme Court presidents (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new attack within 30 days of a previous one. Confidence adjusted up due to Rothman's explicit framing and the election campaign context.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more engagement with IRGC naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
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The IDF will announce the elimination of at least one more battalion-level commander in the Gaza Strip within 90 days.
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Public debate over the NAZA documentary will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on revoking the filmmakers' citizenship within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions on citizenship revocation (2015-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a minister's announcement. Confidence adjusted up due to Culture Minister Zohar's explicit threat.
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The controversy over the Givat Tidhar outpost will not lead to a formal evacuation order within 30 days, as the government is unlikely to enforce removals ahead of elections.
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The number of Israeli Jewish centenarians will not exceed 1,500 by end of 2026, as Japan's 107,677 figure reflects a different demographic and healthcare context.
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Public criticism of the 7-year sentence for Soria Abu Arar will not lead to a formal appeal by the state within 30 days, as the prosecution's position is not yet clear. Reference class: state appeals of lenient sentences in fatal road accidents (2015-2025); base rate ~20% within 30 days of sentencing. Confidence adjusted up due to the absence of immediate prosecution statements.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal partnership with a foreign state for uranium enrichment within 90 days of the ore discovery. Reference class: Saudi nuclear cooperation agreements (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for a formal announcement within 90 days of a resource find. Confidence adjusted up due to the scale of the discovery and existing US-Saudi civilian nuclear talks.
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The total amount of ketamine seized in the Cyprus investigation will not exceed 500 kg within 90 days, as the current haul of 390 kg is already large and further seizures are likely to diminish. Reference class: large-scale drug seizures in Cyprus (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for exceeding initial haul by 30% within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ongoing nature of the investigation.
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Ofer Vinter's Amcha Yisrael party will not pass the electoral threshold in the next elections, as Likud's campaign against him will consolidate the right-wing vote.
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The EL GAIA tanker explosion in the Strait of Hormuz will not lead to a significant disruption in global oil shipping through the strait within 7 days, as the incident appears isolated.
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The number of new students at the Schechter Institute will not increase by more than 10% within 90 days, as the 25% growth over two years is a medium-term trend. Reference class: Israeli academic enrollment growth rates (2015-2025); base rate ~5% per quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to reported momentum from the current news cycle.
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The Likud disqualification request against Ra'am will be rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days.
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Police Commissioner Danny Levy will hold a placement discussion for additional officers within 30 days, despite Minister Ben Gvir's refusal to sign off on appointments until after the elections.
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The Rasha Zaid candidacy in Windsor will not result in a formal investigation by the Ontario Human Rights Commission within 30 days, as the threshold for investigation is high. Reference class: Human rights complaints against candidates in Ontario (2010-2025); base rate ~30% for formal investigation within 30 days of a complaint. Confidence adjusted down due to the public nature of the statement, increasing political pressure.
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The Jerusalem Urban Food Forum will not publicly report rescuing more than 1,000 tons of food within 90 days of its launch, as the coordination mechanism is still being built. Reference class: municipal food rescue programs in cities of similar size (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for reaching 1,000 tons in the first quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of coordinating 2,200 businesses.
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The number of olive trees uprooted in the West Bank will exceed 30,000 by end of 2026, as the rate of 15,534 in six months suggests continued destruction. Reference class: Ynet reporting on uprooted trees (2026); base rate ~30,000/year. Confidence adjusted up due to the accelerated pace.
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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will face increased political opposition from Hezbollah-aligned factions within 30 days, following his visit to Nabatieh and call for state sovereignty.