Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
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The number of antisemitic incidents in Italy will continue to rise over the next 30 days, following the record 963 in 2025.
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The Meloni-Trump photo-op dispute will lead to a cooling of US-Italy bilateral engagements over the next 30 days, with at least one scheduled high-level meeting postponed or canceled.
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The US-Iran deal will lead to increased Houthi rhetoric against Israel and the US, but not to direct military escalation from Yemen within 90 days.
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The opposition bloc's polling lead will narrow but remain above 55 seats over the next 30 days.
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European Union divisions on Israel sanctions will widen, with at least two more member states publicly opposing sanctions in the next 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will comply with the Elections Committee order to remove the video within 7 days, avoiding further legal escalation.
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Israeli public distrust of Trump on the Iran deal will remain above 65% over the next 30 days, as measured by subsequent polls.
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The Gur Levi affair will see at least one additional complaint filed within 30 days.
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Iran will enforce new Strait of Hormuz navigation rules selectively, causing at least one reported incident with a commercial vessel within 90 days.
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Houthi attempts to infiltrate Israel by land will increase over the next 30 days, following Bar'am's warning.
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The ultra-Orthodox protest movement against conscription will expand, with at least two more large demonstrations in the next 30 days.
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The Competition Authority will block the Cal sale unless Cal terminates its Shufersal agreement, leading to a legal appeal within 30 days.
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The IDF will extend mandatory service to 36 months within 30 days to address the projected 12,000-fighter deficit.
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The Rehovot patricide suspect will be found unfit for detention due to mental illness within 7 days, leading to hospitalization.
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The bungee instructor case in Brazil will see at least one suspect charged with homicide, not just manslaughter, within 30 days.
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Iran will continue limited military actions against Kurdish opposition groups despite the deal, maintaining pressure on KDPI.
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Israeli mango prices will rise by at least 30% compared to last year's average due to the crop collapse.
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The welfare system crisis will prompt the government to announce a plan to hire at least 500 new social workers within 30 days.
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The Telegram pedophilia case will expand further, with additional arrests beyond the current 12 within 30 days.
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The US will publicly reiterate its demand for Israel to halt operations in Lebanon within 30 days, but Israel will not comply.
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The housing market slowdown will continue, with sales in the next quarter falling at least another 5% compared to the current quarter.
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The Israeli Ministry of Health will issue a recall or safety alert for 'Prinok' brand fruit puree within 30 days, following the benzodiazepine contamination incident.
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International humanitarian organizations will publicly call for emergency access to deliver generator maintenance supplies to Nasser Medical Complex within 30 days.
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The IDF will report a violation of the new proactive fire ban by a unit in Lebanon within 7 days, leading to an internal investigation.
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The 'Russian Scam' case will expand, with additional indictments filed within 30 days as authorities target the network's organizers.
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Gulf states will publicly express security concerns about the US-Iran deal within 30 days, with at least one state signaling a potential normalization with Iran.
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The Indian Army will order additional Meprolight optics for other weapon systems within 30 days, following the Negev selection.
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The IDF will announce an internal review or new security protocols for AI tools built by soldiers within 7 days following the TheMarker investigation.
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Israel will conduct another targeted killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
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European countries will announce concrete conditions for lifting sanctions on Iran within 7 days.
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Coalition infighting over settler violence and Iran response will intensify, with at least one public resignation or ultimatum from a senior minister within 30 days.
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Eisenkot's party will gain additional Knesset seats in at least one further poll within 7 days, maintaining its lead over Bennett.
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The ceasefire will partially hold for 90 days, but will be violated by at least one significant incident involving Hezbollah or Iranian-backed militias within the same period.
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At least one other major supermarket chain will raise dairy prices by at least 3% within 30 days, following Carrefour's lead.
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Iran will not launch a direct ballistic missile attack on Israel within 30 days, but will increase proxy actions via Hezbollah and Hamas.
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Threats to investigate media figures like Amnon Abramovich will escalate, with the State Prosecutor's Office announcing a formal inquiry within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will increase drone and rocket launches toward northern Israel in response to the Beirut strike and Daqdouq elimination, causing more civilian casualties or IDF interceptions.
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Engineering challenges will delay the demolition of Hezbollah's tunnel city under Beaufort Castle by at least 7 days beyond the initial timeline.
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The Israel Securities Authority will issue a public statement on Victory's compliance with disclosure rules within 7 days.
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Public statements from local council heads criticizing the government's handling of northern security will multiply within 7 days.
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The US-Iran memorandum will be signed on June 14 despite Iranian denials, but will face immediate implementation hurdles.
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Israel will intensify diplomatic efforts to undermine the US-Iran deal over the next 90 days, including lobbying US Congress and European allies.
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The open letter to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir will prompt an official IDF investigation into alleged misconduct in the occupied territories within 30 days.
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The US will increase diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to dismantle proxy militias in Iraq and Lebanon over the next 30 days, without a breakthrough on Hezbollah.
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Netanyahu will publicly reject the emerging US-Iran nuclear deal within 30 days, citing security concerns.
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US military will shoot down additional Iranian drones targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days.
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The Board of Peace's Gaza governance plan will face significant delays as Tony Blair's expanded role fails to overcome differences among stakeholders.
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Amir Maron will be released on bail within 7 days despite incitement charges.
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The release of Hassan Yousef will amplify internal pressure on Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire, as his moderate stance may be leveraged by external mediators.
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The Israeli police will issue new guidelines on political expression at public events within 90 days following the Pride parade controversy.