Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
657 forecasts
-
The Board of Peace will revise its disarmament plan to address Israel's objections within 30 days.
-
The Jerusalem Faction will intensify protests against Haredi conscription, staging at least two public demonstrations in Jerusalem within 30 days.
-
The High Court will rule on the NIS 270 million haredi education transfer within 30 days, either approving or blocking it.
-
The investigation into the murder of Binyahu Razi will lead to formal charges against at least one additional suspect beyond the three currently detained.
-
Public criticism of Netanyahu's handling of Knesset requests will intensify, with at least two additional opposition MKs publicly condemning the PMO's response rate within 30 days.
-
The number of organized support groups for reservists' families in Be'er Sheva will grow by at least 10% over the next 30 days.
-
The 'crocodile prison' project will face increased legal scrutiny, with at least one additional court ruling or official objection within 30 days.
-
Over the next 30 days, the US will continue to reduce its military footprint in bases near Iran, with at least one additional public report of aircraft or personnel relocation.
-
The real estate fraud investigation involving a former Likud MK will lead to formal charges against at least one suspect within 30 days.
-
The Health Ministry will issue additional public warnings about toxic plants or food safety within 30 days.
-
The prosecution will appeal the six-year sentence in the Kard case within 30 days, citing the disparity with the 15-year request.
-
Public criticism of Defense Minister Katz's handling of the Bluth dismissal will intensify, with at least two additional senior political figures issuing public statements against the move.
-
The number of seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will decrease by at least 20% over the next 90 days, as evacuation efforts continue or the strait partially reopens.
-
Erdan will formally rule out sitting in a government that includes at least one of the ultra-Orthodox parties within 30 days.
-
The Mosli-Jerushi conflict will see at least one additional grenade or shooting incident within 30 days, breaking the current truce.
-
The New Hope party's internal conflict over the comptroller ballot scandal will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement from either Sa'ar or Haskel.
-
An indictment will be filed against the East Jerusalem stalking suspect by August 3, 2026, as expected.
-
The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
-
The Knesset's gender segregation law will face increased public and institutional opposition over the next 30 days, with at least one additional medical school dean publicly condemning it.
-
Saeed Jalili's Paydari movement will intensify public opposition to the Hormuz deal, with at least two major statements or protests within 30 days.
-
The US will increase the number of destroyers in the Mediterranean to at least four within 30 days, responding to the naval shortage warning.
-
The Together party's seat count in Maariv polls will remain below 20 over the next 30 days, failing to recover from the 15-seat crash.
-
The soldier arrested for shooting the Palestinian child will face formal charges within 30 days, given the IDF's stated investigation.
-
The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
-
Yoav Segalovitz will formally announce his candidacy on the Ra'am slate within 30 days, making him the party's first Jewish candidate.
-
The detention of Avraham Hadi will be extended at least once more beyond the current four-day order, as the investigation into the News 12 brick-throwing continues.
-
Rebeca Grynspan will face increased scrutiny from permanent Security Council members over her stance on Israel-Palestine issues, potentially affecting her candidacy.
-
Ben Gvir's public opposition to the ceasefire draft will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement or action calling for continued military operations in Gaza.
-
The IDF will conduct at least one additional controlled demolition of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days, following the Beaufort operation.
-
The internal pressure on police spokesman Arie Doron will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional senior officer publicly joining the call for his dismissal.
-
At least one more prominent figure will announce joining a party or forming a new political list within 30 days, as the October 27 elections approach.
-
The IDF will announce new disciplinary measures for unauthorized base departures within 30 days, following the Givati mutiny.
-
The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
-
NATO will publicly confirm enhanced air patrols over Poland within 7 days following the Russian missile incursion.
-
Russia will launch a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine within 7 days, as warned by Zelensky and reported by Ukrainian sources.
-
Likud will intensify legal actions against media outlets perceived as critical over the next 30 days, citing election law violations.
-
Within 90 days, the Houthis will announce or implement a fee for ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb, following discussions with Iran.
-
At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
-
Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
-
The Likud party will formally adopt digital primaries for its candidate selection within 30 days.
-
The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
-
The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
-
Pressure on Lapid to dissolve the union with Bennett will result in a public announcement of separation within 30 days.
-
Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
-
The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
-
The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
-
The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
-
Internal coalition tensions over the draft exemption will lead to at least one public ultimatum from a Haredi party within 90 days.
-
The Israeli government will announce a plan to establish a state-run correspondent bank within 30 days to prevent disruption of PA transfers.
-
Iran-aligned militias in Iraq will launch at least one more drone or missile attack against Saudi Arabia within 30 days.