Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
434 forecasts
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The number of protection money cases opened in the Rotem district will increase by at least 10% in the next 90 days, following the undercover operation and the 32% increase reported in the past year.
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The US will not announce a new security assistance package for the Kurdistan Regional Government within 30 days, despite Barzani's public criticism.
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The public controversy over the removal of Palestinian caregivers from nursing homes will lead to at least one Knesset committee discussion on the essential worker exemption within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions triggered by health-sector controversies (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a committee discussion within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the involvement of multiple stakeholders (Defense Ministry, Health Ministry, nursing home operators) and media attention.
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The Welfare Ministry will announce a plan to increase out-of-home shelter capacity by at least 10% within 90 days, following the report on homelessness. Reference class: Welfare Ministry capacity expansion announcements following media reports (2018-2025); base rate ~60% for an announcement within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the upcoming winter season and the large gap between homeless population (4,500) and available beds (870).
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The number of foreign nationals stranded in conflict zones in Ethiopia will increase by at least 20% within 90 days, as the fighting in the Amhara region expands.
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Smotrich's call for war in Judea and Samaria will not be translated into a formal cabinet vote or IDF operational order within 30 days, as it remains a rhetorical position rather than a policy shift.
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Qatar's LNG exports will not recover to 10 million tons per quarter within 90 days, remaining well below pre-decline levels.
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The US will publicly name at least one country that has complied with its ultimatum to cut trade with Iran within 30 days.
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The public debate over Haredi economic contributions will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee holding a special session on the topic within 90 days, following Mochtar's video and the updated data on household losses.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional European country announcing new sanctions on Iranian banking or aviation sectors.
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The IDF will release a formal investigation report on the drone explosion incident within 30 days, citing safety protocol failures. Reference class: IDF internal investigations of fatal accidents (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for report within 30 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the involvement of a brigadier general-led team which may extend the timeline.
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The opposition bloc will fail to reach the 63-65 seat target set by Eisenkot within 90 days, as internal divisions over leadership and the Ra'am exclusion reduce coalition-building flexibility.
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The number of fatal bicycle accidents on Israeli roads will increase by at least 15% over the next 90 days compared to the same period last year, following the high-profile deaths of Itzik Brashi and the cyclist near Magshimim Junction. Reference class: Israeli road accident fatalities for cyclists (2019-2025); base rate ~50% for seasonal increases in autumn. Confidence adjusted up due to the two recent deaths drawing attention to road safety but down due to potential police enforcement campaigns.
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The Colombian embassy opening in Jerusalem will proceed as planned within 90 days, despite regional tensions. Reference class: Embassy openings in Jerusalem (2018-2025); base rate ~85% for proceeding as announced. Confidence adjusted down due to potential domestic political shifts in Colombia.
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The number of murders in Arab society will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, continuing the current trend. Reference class: Annual murder rates in Arab society (2020-2025); base rate ~80% for exceeding 200 if 177 are reached by late September. Confidence adjusted down due to potential police crackdowns.
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The IDF will neutralize at least 10 additional kilometers of underground routes in the northern Gaza Strip within 90 days, continuing the current operational tempo. Reference class: IDF tunnel neutralization rates in northern Gaza (Oct 2023–Sep 2025); base rate ~8.7 km/month. Confidence adjusted down due to diminishing returns as the campaign matures.
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The number of passengers caught with prohibited plant material at Israeli borders will increase by at least 20% in the next 90 days compared to the previous 90-day period, as heightened Sukkot enforcement and public awareness campaigns take effect. Reference class: Israeli agricultural enforcement campaigns during holidays (2015-2025); base rate ~70% for increased seizures during targeted periods. Confidence adjusted down due to potential deterrent effect of the confiscation-and-replacement policy.
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At least two additional Latin American countries will follow Colombia in downgrading or severing diplomatic relations with Iran within 90 days, as the region's diplomatic alignment shifts. Reference class: Latin American diplomatic breaks with Iran (2009-2025); base rate ~20% for two or more countries within 90 days of a single break. Confidence adjusted up due to the current geopolitical climate and US pressure.
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Public pressure on the government to address the Haymanot Kasau case will intensify over the next 30 days, following Tesfaye Kasau's protest sukkah. Reference class: Israeli protest campaigns for missing persons (2010-2025); base rate ~40% for sustained media attention beyond 2 weeks. Confidence adjusted up due to the symbolic timing of Sukkot.
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The gap between American and Israeli Jewish perceptions of the link between Israeli policy and antisemitism will widen over the next 90 days, as the JPPI poll data is debated in both communities. Reference class: Transatlantic Jewish opinion gaps on Israel (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for widening over 90 days following a major poll. Confidence adjusted down due to the potential for a unifying event.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more battalion-level raid in the West Bank within 30 days, following the activation of Division 98 and the 'Times of Joy' operation.
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No UN Security Council resolution will be adopted that conditions Gaza reconstruction on Hamas disarmament within 90 days, as Russia and China would likely veto such a measure. Reference class: UNSC resolutions on Gaza since October 7; base rate ~25% for adoption of any resolution. Confidence adjusted up due to the clear veto threat.
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The Knesset will not pass legislation raising the minimum marriage age or enforcing existing laws in Yavniel within 90 days, as the emergency committee meeting will not translate into legislative action during the election period.
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The bank stock index will recover from the 1.5% drop caused by the class action approval within 90 days, as investors price in the low probability of a full NIS 15 billion payout. Reference class: Israeli bank stock reactions to major class action approvals (2010-2025); base rate ~65% for recovery within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the slow pace of class action litigation and the banks' strong capital positions.
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The IDF will not receive the full 25 billion shekels additional budget within 90 days, as Treasury reluctance during an election period and the unresolved gap from July's 15-billion-shekel agreement will delay a multi-year commitment.
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Israel's 'The UN's Lie Industry' campaign will not result in any measurable change in UN voting patterns on Israel-related resolutions within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli diplomatic campaigns at the UN (2010-2025); base rate ~15% for shifting voting patterns within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the campaign's late start relative to the General Assembly session.
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Union Investments will sell its entire 37% stake in Super-Pharm within 90 days, as the Competition Authority condition on the Union-Cal merger forces the sale. Reference class: Israeli corporate divestitures mandated by Competition Authority conditions (2010-2025); base rate ~70% for completion within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to potential buyer search delays. Expected indicators: confirming: Union announces a buyer for the Super-Pharm stake within 90 days; falsifying: Union announces it is unable to find a buyer or seeks an extension within 90 days.
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The HIV epidemic in Fiji will not be contained within 90 days, as the 16-fold increase in cases and the drug injection link indicate a systemic crisis that requires international intervention. Reference class: HIV outbreak responses in small island nations (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for containment within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the severity of the numbers and the declaration of a state of emergency.
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The Hostages Square Yom Kippur prayer will become an annual institutionalized event, with a formal organizing committee established within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli memorial and prayer gatherings post-October 7 (2023-2025); base rate ~60% for annualization within 90 days of a second successful event. Confidence adjusted up due to the organizers' expressed commitment to continuity.
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Public debate in Canada about the adequacy of the Canada Community Security Program will intensify over the next 30 days, following the Belleville synagogue shooting.
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At least one additional NATO member state will publicly revise its threat assessment of a Russian attack upward within 90 days, following the Czech intelligence chief's warning.
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Ben Gvir's demand to execute the Neve Tzuf terrorist will not result in an execution order being signed within 90 days, as legal and procedural hurdles delay the process.
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Syria will not sign a formal economic cooperation agreement with the US within 90 days, as the Russian military resupply at Tartus complicates any binding commitment to Washington.
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The 102,000 new Russian and Ukrainian immigrant voters will not coalesce into a single voting bloc for any one party, as their diverse political backgrounds and lack of a unifying leader will fragment their electoral impact across at least three different lists. Reference class: Immigrant voting patterns in Israeli elections (1990s Russian aliyah, 2010s French aliyah); base rate ~70% for fragmentation across multiple parties in a first election. Confidence adjusted down due to the absence of a dedicated immigrant party or leader.
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At least one additional cat species will be formally recognized by a major taxonomic authority within 90 days, following the Leopardus tilcayo discovery and genetic findings that may raise the count to 45.
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President Herzog will not issue a public pardon for Netanyahu before the next election, as his 'solely substantive' stance suggests he will wait for a political resolution.
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Turkey will publicly protest the Israeli-Greek naval exercise within 90 days, escalating its rhetoric against Israel's military cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
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The Tenufa LaTzafon administration will announce at least one additional major infrastructure project (budget >100 million shekels) for a northern town other than Kiryat Shmona within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli government regional development announcements (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for a second major project within 90 days of a first. Confidence adjusted up due to the one billion shekel flexible budget allocation.
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Netanyahu's secret offer of Israeli intelligence and military assistance to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis will not result in a signed bilateral agreement within 90 days, given the Saudi condition of a two-state solution.
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The family of Fatima al-Rajabi will file a formal complaint against the Israel Police for alleged negligence in the search for her, within 90 days.
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The Archbishop of Canterbury will issue a formal statement explaining the revocation of the Hubert Walter Award within 30 days, as the lack of a public reason creates pressure for transparency. Reference class: Church of England public statements on award revocations (2000-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a controversial revocation. Confidence adjusted up due to media attention and the 9/11 anniversary context.
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Iran will complete additional fortification work at the Mount Makoush complex, as satellite images show ongoing earth-moving activity, within 90 days. Reference class: Iran's underground facility fortification cycles (2020-2025); base rate ~80% for observable work continuing over a 90-day window. Confidence adjusted down slightly due to potential diplomatic pause ahead of UNGA.
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The US will announce a formal agreement to station additional refueling aircraft at an alternative Israeli airfield (e.g., Nevatim or Ovda) within 90 days of the Ramon nighttime curfew.
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At least one more former hostage will publicly criticize the government's handling of the hostage crisis in a Yom Kippur-related context within 90 days.
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The number of U.S. states adopting social studies standards that include 'ancestral homeland of the Jews' language for Israel's founding will increase from 1 to at least 2 within 90 days.
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The divergence between rising national average rents and localized oversupply-driven rent drops will widen over the next 90 days, with at least one more Israeli city reporting a year-over-year decline in new contract rents.
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The Swedish center-left bloc led by Magdalena Andersson will succeed in forming a government within 90 days, given its narrow 176-seat majority.
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The IDF will announce the elimination of at least one more battalion-level commander in the Gaza Strip within 90 days.
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The number of Israeli Jewish centenarians will not exceed 1,500 by end of 2026, as Japan's 107,677 figure reflects a different demographic and healthcare context.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal partnership with a foreign state for uranium enrichment within 90 days of the ore discovery. Reference class: Saudi nuclear cooperation agreements (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for a formal announcement within 90 days of a resource find. Confidence adjusted up due to the scale of the discovery and existing US-Saudi civilian nuclear talks.