Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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Avraham Burg's entry into the Knesset race will increase media coverage of left-wing opposition parties by at least 20% over the next 30 days.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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Gulf states will increase public criticism of the US military presence over the next 30 days, with at least two official statements or media reports questioning basing agreements.
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Hezbollah will intensify public rhetoric against the Lebanese government's disarmament efforts over the next 30 days, with at least two major speeches or statements from Naim Qassem or other senior officials.
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IDF strikes on Hezbollah command infrastructure in southern Lebanon will continue at a rate of at least one per week over the next 30 days.
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Israeli media coverage of 'threat stories' will decline by at least 30% from the August 9-11 peak, as public scrutiny of fake news increases.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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The Likud party will face an internal disciplinary review or public call for Kleiner's resignation over his admission about 'creative methods' in list slots.
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The anti-Netanyahu opposition will fail to present a unified candidate list for the October 27 elections, with at least two separate slates remaining.
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The Saskatoon egg-throwing case will result in a plea deal or a trial date within 30 days, given the minor nature of the charges.
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The investigation into the Lod stabbing will lead to an arrest within 90 days, given the severity of the injury.
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The Forward will name a new editor-in-chief within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The investigation into Eldar Dayan's murder will produce at least one new formal step—such as an additional arrest, an indictment, or a charge against Berman or Peretz—within 90 days.
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The US Senate bill to recognize Judaism as an ethnic group will face formal opposition from Jewish organizations within 90 days.
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The prosecution's decision to remove Lin from the Mauda indictment will face a public appeal or additional media scrutiny over the next 30 days.
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Kushner's regional initiative will produce at least one new bilateral agreement or public framework involving Israel, Egypt, or Gulf states within 90 days.
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The police officer fired for sexual relations with a released woman will face additional legal proceedings or a public appeal within 30 days.
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The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
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The grenade attack network in Bat Yam will be linked to at least one additional attack or arrest within 90 days.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue at least one additional ruling on election propaganda involving children or public figures within the next 30 days, beyond the Netanyahu video order.
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Japan will issue a formal diplomatic protest to Russia over the Kuril visit and escalate rhetoric in the coming 30 days.
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Nazareth's 77-day streak without murder will be broken within 90 days, with at least one new killing reported in the city.
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Chaim Rotter's release to house arrest will face a public challenge or a reported violation within 30 days, given the court's 'high danger' finding.
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Russia and North Korea will announce or conduct a joint military exercise within 90 days, building on their new agreement.
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The Attorney General's opposition to Mahash appointments will lead to a public clash with the government, with at least one formal legal challenge or public statement from either side within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's personal promises to Likud MKs will face public challenge or leak within 30 days, as internal factions dispute the allocations.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The IDF will maintain control of the Ali Tahar ridge for at least 90 days, with no reported Hezbollah re-capture.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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The appeal against Ohad Goldberg's promotion will result in a formal review or decision by the Police Internal Investigations Department within 90 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The Tiberias 'kosher sidewalk' will face a legal challenge or public protest within 30 days.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.
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The Rambam Hospital controversy will lead to at least one official inquiry or report on treatment of soldiers or Arab staff within 90 days, beyond the current IDF examination.
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The Central Elections Committee will present a plan to the High Court by August 17 that includes at least 290 alternative accessible polling stations, but will face further court challenges over adequacy.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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The number of complex X-ray misreadings reported in Israeli media will increase over the next 30 days, as the study's findings prompt further investigation and public discussion.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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The United States will conduct at least one more interdiction of a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Iran within 30 days.
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The Democrats will face sustained internal criticism over leadership decisions, with at least one additional public resignation or high-profile complaint within 90 days.
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Egypt will publicly comment on the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan alliance within 30 days, either endorsing or distancing itself from joining.
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Likud's internal tensions over reserved slots will intensify, with at least one additional public dispute or court petition filed within 30 days.
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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Iran's newly appointed IRGC commanders will initiate at least one major military exercise or operation within 90 days, signaling continuity of deterrence.
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Iran's crude oil exports will remain below 200,000 barrels per day for the next 30 days, as the naval blockade continues to prevent tanker loadings at Kharg Island.
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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The Gulf states will intensify diplomatic pressure on the United States to ease the blockade, with at least two GCC members publicly calling for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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The INS Dragon will arrive in Israel within 90 days, as announced, but will not be operational before 2027.