Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
656 forecasts
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the police officers who strip-searched Itamar Greenberg within 30 days.
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Reports of Iranian oil exports via Chinese entities like Hengli Group will face increased scrutiny in Western media over the next 90 days, with at least three new investigative pieces or official sanctions actions targeting such trade.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list that includes Tally Gotliv in a top-10 slot, despite Netanyahu's concerns about seat loss.
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Gulf states will increase public criticism of the US military presence over the next 30 days, with at least two official statements or media reports questioning basing agreements.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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IDF strikes on Hezbollah command infrastructure in southern Lebanon will continue at a rate of at least one per week over the next 30 days.
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Hezbollah will intensify public rhetoric against the Lebanese government's disarmament efforts over the next 30 days, with at least two major speeches or statements from Naim Qassem or other senior officials.
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The Likud party will face an internal disciplinary review or public call for Kleiner's resignation over his admission about 'creative methods' in list slots.
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The Saskatoon egg-throwing case will result in a plea deal or a trial date within 30 days, given the minor nature of the charges.
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The anti-Netanyahu opposition will fail to present a unified candidate list for the October 27 elections, with at least two separate slates remaining.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The prosecution's decision to remove Lin from the Mauda indictment will face a public appeal or additional media scrutiny over the next 30 days.
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The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue at least one additional ruling on election propaganda involving children or public figures within the next 30 days, beyond the Netanyahu video order.
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Chaim Rotter's release to house arrest will face a public challenge or a reported violation within 30 days, given the court's 'high danger' finding.
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Japan will issue a formal diplomatic protest to Russia over the Kuril visit and escalate rhetoric in the coming 30 days.
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The Attorney General's opposition to Mahash appointments will lead to a public clash with the government, with at least one formal legal challenge or public statement from either side within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's personal promises to Likud MKs will face public challenge or leak within 30 days, as internal factions dispute the allocations.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The Central Elections Committee will present a plan to the High Court by August 17 that includes at least 290 alternative accessible polling stations, but will face further court challenges over adequacy.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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The United States will conduct at least one more interdiction of a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Iran within 30 days.
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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Likud's internal tensions over reserved slots will intensify, with at least one additional public dispute or court petition filed within 30 days.
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Egypt will publicly comment on the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan alliance within 30 days, either endorsing or distancing itself from joining.
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Iran's crude oil exports will remain below 200,000 barrels per day for the next 30 days, as the naval blockade continues to prevent tanker loadings at Kharg Island.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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Likud will formally declare Dan Ilouz and Yuli Edelstein as defectors within 30 days if they do not resign, as threatened by MK Avichai Boaron.
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Hamas will hand over fewer than 1,000 Kalashnikovs to international monitors within 30 days, far short of the 60-70 thousand estimated.
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The number of police raids and closures in Rahat will increase over the next 30 days as the clan dispute continues.
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The IDF will resume targeted killings of Nukhba terrorists within 30 days, citing operational necessity.
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Spain will begin transferring migrant minors from Ceuta to mainland Spain within 30 days, prioritizing girls as announced.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fence breach or security alert at a kibbutz near the Gaza border will be reported in Israeli media, triggering a similar barricade response.
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Over the next 30 days, the IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one more Hezbollah drone attack on its forces in southern Lebanon, following the pattern of initial concealment.
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Yashar's electoral support will grow in polls over the next 90 days, driven by Eisenkot's security credentials and the opposition's rallying behind him.
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Iranian parliamentary pressure to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one formal committee vote on the bill.
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Over the next 30 days, public statements by Otzma Yehudit will continue to publicly support Religious Zionism passing the threshold, while privately preparing more attack materials against Smotrich.
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Over the next 30 days, the Israel Police will make at least one arrest in connection with the stun grenade attacks on the Rami Levy Stock branch in Ramla or the residential tower in Park Tzameret.
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The number of Israeli civilian border-crossing incidents into Lebanon will decline over the next 30 days as the IDF increases patrols and police enforcement.
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The political-security cabinet will approve a harsher military response in southern Lebanon within 30 days, despite US pressure.
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Over the next 30 days, the Houthis will claim responsibility for at least two more attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden or Red Sea.
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Israeli media coverage of emigration will increase, with at least two major outlets publishing feature stories on Israelis who left in 2025 within 30 days.
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The Board of Peace will revise its disarmament plan to address Israel's objections within 30 days.