Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
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Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
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The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will intensify, with Iran rejecting the US demand for free navigation and possibly conducting naval exercises in the strait.
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The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
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Smotrich will face increasing public backlash from hostage families, leading to at least one more high-profile confrontation within 30 days.
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The US-Iran talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will not take place as announced, due to conflicting statements from both sides.
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Slovenia's embassy move to Jerusalem will face procedural delays or EU pushback over the next 30 days.
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Public pressure on the government to address Arab crime will intensify, with at least one coalition MK publicly calling for a state of emergency in Arab communities.
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The Shin Bet leak investigation will face political interference from coalition members within 7 days.
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Iran's legal campaign against Israel and the US will gain symbolic traction in non-aligned forums over the next 30 days, but will not result in formal proceedings.
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Israeli public criticism of Vice President Vance will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Israeli official publicly questioning his reliability.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with the US seeking to rally Arab states against Iran.
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The US and Iran will avoid further direct military strikes for at least 30 days, but proxy attacks in Syria and Iraq will increase.
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IDF will continue targeted strikes in southern Lebanon despite the framework agreement, citing preemptive self-defense.
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The US will establish a backchannel communication with Iran within 30 days to prevent accidental clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Knesset will advance legislation regulating AI in elections within the next 30 days, following the Constitution Committee's discussion.
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The DSA's primary victories will intensify the pro-Israel establishment's opposition to the DSA, with at least one major Jewish organization publicly launching a campaign against DSA-endorsed candidates within 30 days.
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IRGC will conduct a limited retaliatory strike against US or Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf within 7 days.
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The number of theft cases from vehicles in Tel Aviv will continue to rise, exceeding 650 cases by late July as police struggle to curb the trend.
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Israeli officials will increase public warnings to Iran via Persian-language channels over the next 30 days.
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Internal Likud opposition to Netanyahu's reserved slots demand will grow, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly criticizing the move within 30 days.
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IRGC will increase harassment of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 30 days, targeting ships using the Omani corridor.
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Israeli officials will publicly confirm a framework agreement with Lebanon within 30 days, following the Washington talks.
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The Health Ministry's ban on AI tools in hospitals will face increasing criticism from medical professionals, with at least one major hospital director publicly calling for a partial reversal within 30 days.
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The number of investigation files opened against minors in 2025 will exceed 2,500 by year-end, reflecting a continued rise in youth crime.
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Public discourse on Haredi military service will become increasingly polarized, with at least one major political figure calling for legislative action within 30 days.
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The number of countries deploying personnel to the International Stabilization Force for Gaza will increase as the Cyprus summit approaches.
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Internal tensions within the Democrats party will intensify, with at least one more senior figure publicly criticizing Yair Golan's leadership within 30 days.
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The number of killings in Arab society will continue to rise, exceeding 150 by late July, as police fail to curb the violence.
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The controversy over the Shin Bet memorial dismantling will lead to at least one public protest by families of fallen officers within 30 days.
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The number of Bedouin home demolitions in the Negev will increase over the next 30 days as enforcement of court orders accelerates.
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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually increase but remain below 60% of pre-war levels within 90 days due to ongoing tensions.
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Israeli public diplomacy efforts will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one new government initiative aimed at improving Israel's image among American Jews and Democrats.
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The Haredi protest movement will continue to escalate over the next 7 days, with at least one major road blockade reported daily.
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Hezbollah will escalate attempts to locate and target senior Israeli commanders in southern Lebanon using night operations and radio monitoring.
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Iran will continue to deny any agreement on nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims, leading to a stalemate in negotiations within 30 days.
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The Basic Law: Torah Study bill will not pass its final readings within 30 days due to coalition infighting and IDF opposition.
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The closure of northern border emergency response teams will lead to at least one public protest or legal petition by affected residents within 30 days.
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The number of arrests of minors for serious crimes in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as police intensify enforcement following high-profile incidents.
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The investigation into the kindergarten abuse case in Kiryat Gat will lead to additional charges against staff beyond the owner, including for obstruction.
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The IAEA inspectors will not physically arrive in Iran within the next 7 days despite Vance's announcement, due to internal Iranian opposition.
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The number of court-ordered vaccinations in Israel will increase over the next 30 days as judges set precedent for overriding parental objections without medical evidence.
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The coalition heads meeting on June 23 will not result in an immediate decision to dissolve the Knesset, but will produce a public statement reaffirming coalition unity.
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The US-Iran talks will produce a framework agreement within 30 days, but implementation will face delays due to internal opposition in both countries.
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Colombia's election result will be officially certified within 7 days, with de la Espriella confirmed as winner despite Cepeda's challenge.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least 20 additional deaths reported.
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The debate over arrest legality in public safety cases will intensify, with at least one court ruling explicitly addressing warrantless rooftop arrests within 30 days.
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The shekel will continue to weaken against the dollar over the next 30 days, with a further decline of at least 2%.
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Coalition internal tensions over the primaries dilemma will intensify, with at least one public threat of a split from a coalition party within 30 days.
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IDF ground operations in southern Lebanon will continue at a reduced tempo over the next 7 days, with no major new incursions reported.
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The US-Qatar humanitarian fund release for Iran will be delayed by at least 30 days due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.