Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
436 forecasts
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The UK-Israel diplomatic crisis will escalate, with either side expelling at least 10 diplomats within 30 days, following the reciprocal expulsion threats.
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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will not accept Ofir Akunis's invitation to view the October 7 atrocity film within 30 days, as doing so would alienate his progressive base.
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NATO will issue a formal statement condemning the drone attack on commercial ships near the Bulgarian coast within 30 days, as the first such incident in NATO territorial waters demands a collective response.
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Amcha Yisrael will continue to publicly decline to commit exclusively to recommending Netanyahu for prime minister over the next 30 days, keeping open the option of recommending a unity or change-bloc candidate.
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The Lebanese government's caravan initiative in southern Lebanon will expand to at least two more villages within 90 days, as the state tests Hezbollah's tolerance. Reference class: Lebanese government infrastructure projects in Hezbollah-dominated areas (2020-2026); base rate ~40% for expansion to 2+ villages within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported shift in village sentiment toward the government.
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The IDF will release a formal investigation into the security breach at the outpost between Quneitra and Khader within 30 days, as the incident raises operational questions. Reference class: IDF investigations of security breaches at border outposts (2023-2026); base rate ~55% for a published report within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Maariv's ongoing coverage and the unusual nature of a terrorist reaching the outpost entrance.
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Iran will publicly test-fire a missile with a range exceeding 1,000 km within 90 days, as the IRGC's announced expansion moves from planning to demonstration. Reference class: IRGC missile tests following public range-expansion pledges (2015-2026); base rate ~60% for a test within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit 'work has already begun' phrasing in the announcement.
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The Brooklyn teacher Damian Naveh will be formally disciplined (suspended or fired) by the NYC Department of Education within 30 days, as political pressure mounts. Reference class: NYC teacher discipline cases for political speech (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for suspension/firing within 30 days of a public scandal. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific call for Sinwar, a designated terrorist leader, and the involvement of a former assemblyman.
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Eisenkot's debate challenge will not be accepted by Netanyahu within 30 days, as the Likud leader avoids a direct confrontation that could unify the opposition. Reference class: Israeli prime ministers accepting debate challenges from opposition leaders (2000-2026); base rate ~35% for acceptance within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Netanyahu's consistent avoidance of one-on-one debates in recent campaigns.
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The Brazilian election will proceed to a second round, as no candidate reaches 50% of the total valid votes. Reference class: Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2026); base rate ~80% for a runoff when no candidate has >50% in early counts. Confidence adjusted up due to the early snapshot showing Bolsonaro at 50.74% but with only 32% counted, making a final majority uncertain.
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Syria will escalate its diplomatic campaign against Israeli incursions at the UN within 30 days, seeking a formal Security Council resolution. Reference class: Syrian UN complaints post-2024; base rate ~55% for a formal resolution request within 30 days of a major incursion report. Confidence adjusted up due to the 1,300 incursions figure and the completion of the 'Sufa 53 Line'.
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The U.S. and Japan will not reach a new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) revision for Okinawa within 90 days following the murder arrest of Lance Cpl. Blood. Reference class: U.S.-Japan SOFA revision attempts (1995-2026); base rate ~30% for any revision within 90 days of a major incident. Confidence adjusted down due to the complexity of SOFA negotiations and Japanese domestic politics.
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The price of copper will increase by at least 5% within 30 days, driven by AI data center demand and the fact that an advanced data center requires up to 50,000 tons of copper. Reference class: Copper price movements following major AI infrastructure announcements (2023-2026); base rate ~60% for a 5% increase within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific $500 billion Nvidia-SK Hynix deal and the $735 billion in tech capex.
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The IDF will announce at least one additional major submarine procurement or construction contract within 90 days, as Netanyahu's stated ambition for naval leadership and the arrival of the sixth submarine signal a sustained investment trajectory.
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The hit-and-run investigation on Rashba Street will result in the driver being identified and charged within 30 days.
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Yemeni military operations against the Houthis will expand to include at least two more provinces within 30 days, as the government seeks to capitalize on the declaration of war. Reference class: Yemeni government offensives against Houthis (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for expansion to 2+ provinces within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the formal declaration and recent Houthi provocations.
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The Knesset will not pass a law establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 massacre within 90 days, given the opposition's lack of a majority and coalition resistance. Reference class: Israeli parliamentary attempts to establish state commissions (2006-2026); base rate ~20% for passage within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the coalition's stated opposition and the upcoming elections.
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The number of IDF soldiers killed in operational accidents (non-combat) will increase by at least 50% within 90 days, as the prolonged deployment under Order 8 increases fatigue and risk.
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The criminal investigation into Idan David will result in a formal indictment within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli white-collar crime cases involving resume fraud (2018-2025); base rate ~65% for indictment within 90 days of questioning. Confidence adjusted up due to the prior finding by the Committee for the Examination of Appointments that David presented a false representation.
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Public criticism of government handling of hostage families will intensify over the next 30 days, as the anniversary amplifies survivor testimony.
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The number of foreign nationals detained in the West Bank for security-related provocations will increase by at least 50% within 90 days, as security forces intensify operations. Reference class: Detentions of foreign nationals in the West Bank (2025-2026); base rate ~40% for a 50% increase over 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the recent detention of four individuals and the stated policy of zero tolerance.
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The Portuguese investigation into the legality of US use of Lajes Air Base will not result in a formal suspension of the authorization within 30 days.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue a formal warning or reprimand to Yiska Haimov for her participation in the incident with Mordechai David within 30 days.
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The number of Christian families leaving Taybeh will increase by more than 5 families within 90 days, as the post-October 7 exodus accelerates. Reference class: Christian emigration from West Bank villages (2020-2025); base rate ~30% for >5 families in 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported 15 families already leaving and the described shift in spiritual perception.
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The Knesset will not pass a law formally codifying the new disqualification criteria for candidates within 90 days, despite the Abu Shahada case.
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The US will conduct at least one airstrike against Iranian-backed targets in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, as the buildup of naval assets and Trump's ultimatum increase the likelihood of confrontation.
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Saudi Arabia will not publicly grant the US permission to use its airspace for strikes on Iran within 90 days, as the Patriot deployment alone may not be sufficient to overcome Saudi concerns about retaliation.
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The film 'Naz'a' will be officially banned or its screenings will be disrupted by protests at at least two more international venues within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli films contested at international festivals (2014-2025); base rate ~60% for multiple disruptions. Confidence adjusted up due to the strong emotional response to Taasa's intervention and the film's Venice award.
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The FBI investigation into the alleged Houthi material support by Ashton Hamed Ellaboudy will not result in a guilty plea within 90 days, given the complexity of the case and the use of an official passport. Reference class: U.S. federal terrorism finance cases (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for guilty plea within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the defendant's former DOE employment and potential classified evidence issues.
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Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, as winter approaches and power outages resume in Uman.
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The UK will officially attribute the attempted attack near RAF Fairford to Iranian actors within 30 days, following the 'strong indication' from Prime Minister Burnham.
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Israeli tech fundraising in Q4 2026 will not exceed $3.5 billion per month, as the September $2.5 billion pace moderates. Reference class: Israeli tech monthly fundraising (2024-2025); base rate ~$1.8B. Confidence adjusted up due to large September rounds pulling demand forward.
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The Knesset will hold at least one formal debate on the October 7 warnings and failures within the next 30 days, triggered by the new disclosures.
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The dispute between Battalion 601 soldiers and Colonel Schneider over leave cancellations will lead to a formal complaint to the Personnel Directorate or a public statement from the soldiers within 30 days. Reference class: IDF soldier protests over conditions (2020-2026); base rate ~55% for a formal complaint within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the Personnel Directorate's expressed dissatisfaction with the brigade commander's position.
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The fuel price increase of 52 agorot per liter will lead to at least one official announcement of price increases in a major consumer sector (food, transportation, or housing) within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli fuel price hikes and sectoral price responses (2020-2025); base rate ~65% for a sectoral price increase within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the broad economic fear of a domino effect.
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The Likud petition against the Fly&Vote project will be partially rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days, allowing the project to proceed with modifications.
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El Al will not announce a further expansion of its Dubai route network beyond the resumed Tel Aviv-Dubai flights within 90 days. Reference class: Post-conflict route resumptions by El Al (2014-2025); base rate ~55% for no further expansion within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the security uncertainty following the incident on the flight from Dubai.
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The investigation into Iliyan Filipov's murder in Plovdiv will not result in formal charges against a suspect within 90 days.
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The US Supreme Court will not grant the Tennessee Attorney General's appeal to reinstate Christa Pike's execution within 30 days.
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The UAE will not publicly host an Israeli opposition leader for an official meeting within 90 days, despite reported invitations to Gadi Eisenkot.
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The US Senate will not pass a resolution requiring a report on West Bank violence within 90 days, given the 51-47 vote to block it.
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Dahlan will not be formally appointed to a leadership role in Gaza within 90 days, despite his reemergence as a candidate. Reference class: Post-conflict leadership transitions in Gaza (2007-2025); base rate ~45% for no formal appointment within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the 'day after' negotiations and opposition from security figures who see him as corrupt.
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The public controversy over the Merikerman Abascal eviction in Spain will lead to at least one more major housing protest in Madrid within 30 days. Reference class: Spanish housing protests following high-profile evictions (2018-2025); base rate ~60% for a follow-up protest within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the government's Merikerman Decree announcement, which may galvanize both supporters and opponents.
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The internal dispute between Defense Minister Katz and Maj. Gen. Blot over administrative orders will lead to a formal meeting or public statement within 30 days, but not to Blot's removal.
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The Shin Bet will not provide security for Gadi Eisenkot before the October 27, 2026 elections, despite the High Court petition.
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Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq will conduct at least one attack on US-linked targets in Syria or Iraq within 30 days following the US withdrawal. Reference class: Militia attacks on US interests after US drawdowns in Iraq (2011-2020); base rate ~65% for an attack within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the vacuum created and the IRGC's recent aggressive rhetoric.
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Iran's floating oil stockpile will remain below 10 million barrels within 90 days, as exports continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Hamas will carry out at least one attack against IDF forces in the Gaza Strip within 30 days that results in Israeli casualties, despite ongoing targeted killings.
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Hezbollah's political isolation in Lebanon will deepen over the next 30 days, with at least one more public statement from a major Lebanese political figure criticizing the group's refusal to hand over Ali al-Taher Ridge. Reference class: Public criticism of Hezbollah by Lebanese figures (2020-2025); base rate ~60% for a new critical statement within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the recent commemoration highlighting the isolation.
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Likud will not formally distance itself from Itzik Bonzel's Facebook post against Yocheved Lifshitz within 90 days, as the party has not done so in the past 12 hours. Reference class: Likud responses to controversial statements by party candidates (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for no formal distancing within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Bonzel's 29th slot on the list and his son's death, which complicates party discipline.