Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
656 forecasts
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The IDF will issue a public directive on handling stray dogs at bases within 30 days, following the Camp Noam euthanasia controversy.
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The IDF will publicly report at least one additional strike on a Hamas weapons production site within 30 days, as intelligence confirms renewed independent production.
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Ofer Winter's party will surpass Religious Zionism in at least one additional public poll within 30 days.
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The Likud primary recount will result in a change to the official list order, altering Gila Gamliel's realistic slot, within 30 days.
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The High Court's freeze on coalition funds will trigger a legislative attempt by coalition MKs to bypass the ruling within 30 days.
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Turkish diplomatic pressure on Syria will intensify over the next 30 days, following the US delisting and Israeli-Syrian talks.
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Internal police criticism over the Dayan case collapse will intensify, with at least one public call for an investigation into the investigation within 30 days.
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Pakistan will publicly announce a mediation initiative between the US and Iran within 30 days, leveraging Munir's visit to Tehran.
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The IDF will publicly announce at least one specific tactical change in Lebanon within 30 days, following the Northern Command's operational shift.
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US special envoys will increasingly preface remarks on occupied territories with explicit disclaimers that they are describing UN positions, not US policy, over the next 30 days.
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Greece will announce at least one additional Patriot battery relocation within 30 days, citing the Iranian threat.
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Iran will not carry out any overt military action to block Gulf oil exports within 90 days, despite Rezai's threat.
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The share of Israelis who fear identifying themselves abroad will increase by at least 3 percentage points in the next poll within 30 days.
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Iranian oil exports will remain at or above current levels over the next 30 days, as measured by tanker tracking data or official Iranian claims.
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The frequency of price tag attacks in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, with at least two new incidents reported by Israeli media.
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Internal Shas tensions over the enlistment law will produce at least one more public protest or heckling incident targeting a Shas MK within the next 30 days.
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Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.
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Russia will conduct at least one additional strike in Ukraine targeting a location where rescue or medical personnel are present within the next 30 days.
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Public transportation on Shabbat will remain a flashpoint, with at least one additional protest or confrontation reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The Ra'am party's internal cohesion will be tested over the next 30 days, as the primaries may expose factional tensions that spill into public criticism of Abbas's leadership.
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The controversy over Paramount's accusation of antisemitism against Mark Ruffalo will be referenced in at least one major US entertainment industry publication within 30 days.
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The collapse of the Palestine Action trial will lead to at least one new protest or direct action by the group in the UK within 30 days.
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The US will not allow Mahmoud Abbas to address the UN General Assembly next month, despite his appeal to Erdogan.
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The Ramla stabbing and Kiryat Gat shooting will prompt at least one Knesset member to submit a parliamentary question or call for a committee hearing on domestic violence and public security within 30 days.
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The IDF will increase the tempo of airstrikes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as the political echelon signals a tougher line ahead of elections.
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The blood feud in Lod will see at least one additional violent incident, such as an attempted revenge attack or a police raid, within the next 30 days.
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The gap between the opposition and coalition blocs will narrow in the next major poll, as Likud consolidates its base and Yashar's growth plateaus.
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Hamas will escalate its use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as a response to perceived loss of control.
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Coalition negotiations will intensify, with at least one new right-wing merger or alliance announced before the September 7 deadline for submitting lists.
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The debate over community reconciliation processes in criminal sentencing will gain public attention, with at least one op-ed or news analysis piece in a major Israeli outlet discussing the Tsegai case's implications within 30 days.
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Internal Likud tensions over reserved spots for pushed-back MKs will escalate, with at least one MK publicly threatening to leave the party or vote against coalition discipline within 30 days.
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Bennett's Yashar party will gain at least 2 seats in the next major public opinion poll, as his security-focused messaging and hardline stance on Haredi conscription resonate with right-wing voters.
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Diplomatic pressure on Israel over the World Central Kitchen killings will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one more country summoning Israel's ambassador or issuing a formal protest.
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Iranian-backed proxy groups will conduct at least one publicly reported attack on a US military asset in Europe within 30 days.
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The police will not file additional charges against Yuval Goldiak within 30 days, given the early stage of the investigation and the complexity of sex offense cases.
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The Mousawa Center's complaint over the Umm al-Fahm wedding raid will lead to a formal police investigation or disciplinary review within 30 days.
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The KKL investigation will prompt at least one official inquiry or public statement from KKL leadership within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will not issue a final ruling on the Death Penalty for Terrorists Law petition within 30 days.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the Afula resident for the bus assault within 30 days, given the existing indictment.
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The Jerusalem Appeals Tribunal will issue a final ruling on Telma Kasau's deportation within 30 days, either granting her status or ordering her removal.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will maintain a lead of at least 15 seats over the coalition in public polls through October, as Likud's internal turmoil and the Yashar party's rise persist.
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Over the next 30 days, the US-Hamas channel will produce at least one public statement from either side confirming progress on the 15-point roadmap, but no final agreement on Hamas disarmament will be announced.
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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Israeli coalition tensions over the Gaza roadmap will intensify, with at least one public statement from a coalition minister criticizing the US-Hamas channel or the plan's terms.
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The cancellation of Brazilian chicken import approval will lead to a measurable increase in domestic chicken prices in Israel over the next 30 days.
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The police will appeal the release of Yossi Mosli within 30 days, leading to a new court hearing.
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Israeli media coverage of the Yahalomi sisters' return will shift from celebration to scrutiny of privacy violations within 30 days.
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Tali Gottlieb will not formally join Otzma Yehudit within 30 days, despite reported talks.
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The Knesset will not cancel the budget transfers approved during the election recess within 30 days, as the legal adviser's opposition will hold.
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Yosef Haddad's 'Israel Amitza' party will either merge with Ofer Winter's faction or announce a formal alliance within 30 days, as both seek to consolidate right-wing support.