Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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The IDF will continue airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons storage sites in southern Lebanon over the next 30 days, as diplomatic efforts to implement the June 26 withdrawal agreement stall.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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The IDF will continue to reduce reserve soldier call-ups, with numbers dropping below 50,000 within 30 days, as financial constraints persist.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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IDF operations in Gaza will continue at current tempo, with at least one more targeted killing of a mid-level militant commander within 30 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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US-Iran military exchanges will continue with at least one more round of strikes within 7 days.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
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Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
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The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
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The IDF will proceed with the discharge of 10,000 reservists by end of July, but may face internal pushback from operational commanders.
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Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will intensify over the next 30 days, as Russia seeks to exploit delays in Western air defense deliveries.
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Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
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Iran's internal power struggle will delay finalization of the US-Iran deal beyond 90 days.
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IRGC will conduct a limited missile or drone test launch within 30 days, citing 'divine revenge' rhetoric.
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The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
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Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will escalate into a limited cross-border attack within 30 days, but will not trigger a full war.
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Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
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The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.
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The IDF will not implement the proposed cuts to Home Front Command soldiers in Judea and Samaria settlements within 30 days, due to internal opposition from regional leaders and security concerns.
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The Knesset will hold a new vote for state comptroller within 30 days, but the coalition will face internal dissent over candidate selection.
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The IDF's disciplinary action against the soldiers who bound a Palestinian suspect will lead to a formal investigation or court-martial within 30 days, amid public pressure.
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The Zvika Cohen controversy will lead to a Knesset committee hearing on autism benefits within 30 days.
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The trapped Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon will either be killed or captured within 30 days, reducing the tunnel threat.
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The defense budget dispute between the Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry will intensify, with public statements from both sides but no resolution within 30 days.
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The US review of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia will lead to a formal reduction in joint exercises or arms sales within 90 days.
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Iran's media crackdown ahead of Khamenei's funeral will intensify, with at least one prominent journalist or editor arrested within 30 days.
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The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.
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Turkey will retaliate diplomatically against Israel within 30 days, possibly by expelling the Israeli ambassador or downgrading relations.
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The classified phone lost in Syria will be recovered or its compromise confirmed within 30 days, leading to operational changes.
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The IDF will continue targeted strikes in Gaza, eliminating at least one more mid-level militant commander within 7 days.