Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1090 forecasts
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Ofer Winter will not withdraw from the Knesset election race within 7 days, despite Netanyahu's pressure and his party polling below the threshold.
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The proportion of women in the next Knesset will not reach the predicted record of 33; the final number will be 30 or fewer.
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At least one more violent incident involving organized crime figures will be publicly reported in Umm al-Fahm within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the past 12 hours.
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David Abuaziz will be sentenced to life imprisonment within 30 days, given the aggravating circumstances of the murder conviction and his prior life sentence.
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Egypt will not formally join a Saudi-led regional defense alliance within 30 days; Cairo's offer will remain at the level of declared readiness rather than a signed accession.
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The Water Authority will publish at least one further quantified warning about northern water sources within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the current alert rather than a single statement.
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The Irgun Museum in Binyamina will host at least one further publicly reported commemorative event tied to Altalena or Irgun heritage within 90 days, extending the current transfer into a series rather than a one-off.
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The deputy chief of staff post will be filled by a formal IDF announcement naming either Uri Gordin or Yaniv Asor within 90 days, ending the current open contest between the Chief of Staff and the political echelon.
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German prosecutors will file formal charges against at least one of the two teenage suspects in the Cologne robot incident within 30 days.
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The IDF will launch at least one further interceptor against an aerial target over or near southern Lebanon within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the past 48 hours rather than a single isolated incident.
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Kfar Saba Mayor Rafi Saar will remain in detention or under formal restriction and will not return to active mayoral duties within 30 days.
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OpenAI will report at least one more Iranian influence operation with a rating of 3 or higher on its Influence Operation scale within 90 days.
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The UK government will issue at least one additional public statement or report providing more specific details about the RAF Fairford bomb plot within 30 days.
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The vacancy at the head of Israel's Interior Ministry will remain unfilled over the next 30 days, with no new minister sworn in.
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The Israeli Education Ministry will issue at least one written directive or public statement restricting school trips to northern Israel within 30 days, following the Ramim Ridge dud explosion that killed one student and wounded 24.
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The Pentagon's CENTCOM preparation order will be followed within 30 days by at least one additional publicly reported US force-posture or readiness adjustment tied to Iran, rather than remaining a single internal instruction.
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Our Fight's 'Some people are Zionist! Get over it!' campaign will produce at least one additional publicly reported confrontation or removal at a UK institutional event within 30 days, sustaining the pattern set by Birbeck's ejection from the Green Party conference.
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The Attorney General's office or the State Attorney will publish a formal response to Netanyahu's demand for prosecution over the film 'NAZA' before the 27 October election.
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The Houthis will launch at least one more publicly reported attack on Saudi territory within 30 days, sustaining the current pattern of escalation despite Saudi-Iranian diplomatic contacts.
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The gag order on the Samaria security personnel arrest will be partially lifted or formally challenged in a published court ruling within 30 days, as Honenu's appeal to the Lod District Court forces a judicial response.
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Iran's Revolutionary Guards will conduct at least one additional publicly reported missile or drone launch drill before the end of the 90-day window, sustaining a pattern of repeated exercises rather than a single demonstration.
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At least one additional Israeli public figure or MK will publicly criticize the Shin Bet's handling of the Samaria security personnel arrest within 30 days, as the case becomes a rallying point for right-wing coalition voices.
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The Ukrainian government will issue a formal public statement either confirming or denying the energy ceasefire with Russia within 7 days. Reference class: Ukrainian official denials of uncoordinated ceasefire announcements (2022-2026); base rate ~70% for a clarifying statement within 7 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the Financial Times report already signaling denial.
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The American company approved to map Hamas weapons-handover sites in southern Gaza will not complete a documented, publicly reported handover of rifles or weapons for destruction within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will face increased public criticism from within the US Democratic Party establishment over the next 30 days, as Gordon's allegations provide fresh talking points. Reference class: US Democratic criticism of Netanyahu after a former official's detailed accusations (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for a spike within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Gordon's specific timing and the ongoing election season.
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The Knesset will hold at least one formal discussion or committee hearing specifically addressing the phenomenon of domestic violence and femicide within 90 days, following the Be'er Sheva murder confession.
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The US will not announce a formal decision to join Saudi strikes against the Houthis within 30 days, as Trump's 'very quickly' framing leaves room for delay.
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The International Committee of the Red Cross will issue at least one further public statement or interview acknowledging gaps in its hostage-negotiation role within 30 days, as Spoljaric's admission invites follow-up pressure.
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Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav's demand for a binding 2029 deadline will be publicly endorsed by at least one major party (Likud or Yesh Atid) within 30 days, but no binding Knesset legislation will be advanced before the election.
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No Israeli strike on Iran will be publicly confirmed by the IDF or the White House within 90 days, as Zamir's block on the US-demanded operation holds.
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The detention of the 19-year-old suspect in the Be'er Sheva vehicle arson will be extended at least once beyond Monday as police pursue the obstruction concern.
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At least one additional Israeli party currently polling below the electoral threshold will announce a merger or joint list with another party before the election date.
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Gantz's Blue and White will remain below the electoral threshold in at least two of the next three published Israeli polls over the next 30 days, as his unity pitch fails to consolidate the anti-Netanyahu vote.
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The Haifa soup kitchen commemorating Yaakov Cohen will begin serving meals to the public within 30 days.
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Feiglin's proposal to close two-thirds of ministries will be publicly rejected by at least one coalition partner within 30 days, as it threatens their ministerial portfolios.
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The Israel Police will issue a public statement confirming or ruling out the report of a body at Sdot Yam beach within 7 days.
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The Yehud-Monoson municipality and the developers of the Avia Hotel complex will remain without a submitted new plan to the District Planning and Building Committee over the next 30 days, as neither side has moved from its stated position.
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The Pentagon's three-day intensive strike plan against Iran will remain unexecuted within 90 days, as Trump's rejection of five extensive operations proposals indicates sustained political restraint. Reference class: US military strike plans against Iran (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for execution within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Trump's track record of rejecting such plans.
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The halted Apache helicopter procurement deal will not be approved before the elections, as Smotrich's position has been accepted by the Attorney General. Reference class: Israeli procurement deals halted by Attorney General in election season (2015-2026); base rate ~85% for remaining blocked until after elections. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit acceptance by Baharav-Miara.
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The number of reported youth-related violent crimes in Poland will increase by at least 25% compared to the previous 30-day period, following the two school stabbings.
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Iranian hardliners will successfully force a cabinet reshuffle or the resignation of Foreign Minister Araghchi within 30 days, as the no-confidence motion gains traction. Reference class: Iranian parliamentary no-confidence motions against ministers (2015-2026); base rate ~35% for success within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the dual pressure of economic collapse and the push to strengthen the National Security Council at the expense of parliament.
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The IDF will revise its PTSD freeze policy within 90 days, following the High Court petition by 117 reservists.
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The IDF citation review for October 7 battles will result in at least 10 citations being awarded within 30 days.
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Coalition internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more senior coalition figure publicly criticizing Netanyahu's Gaza policy within 30 days.
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The opposition bloc's public no-attack pledge will be violated by at least one more recorded incident within 30 days, as internal competition for seats intensifies.
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The October 7 Memory Authority, due to take effect in January, will face at least one legal challenge from a family or civil rights group regarding its data-collection protocols within 90 days of its establishment.
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The number of families petitioning the state for access to Oct. 7 documentation will increase by at least 50% within 30 days, following the broadcast of Amit Mann's recordings.
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The Spanish government's collapse, triggered by the Abascal eviction protests, will lead to a snap election being called within 30 days.
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The number of reported stone attacks in the Sebastia area will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 30-day period, as the attack on a shepherd escalates a pattern of violence. Reference class: stone attacks in Samaria (2023-2026); base rate ~45% for a 50% increase after a moderately injured victim. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific targeting of a shepherd near a farm, a tactic that may embolden further attacks.
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The political feud between Minister Shikli and Peter Palchik will escalate into a formal complaint or disciplinary action within 90 days, as Shikli's mockery of a Russian accent touches a sensitive nerve among Israel's Russian-speaking community. Reference class: Israeli ministerial disciplinary actions following public ethnic mockery incidents (2015-2026); base rate ~45% for a formal complaint or censure within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Palchik's status as an Olympic medalist and the timing near elections, which heightens scrutiny.