Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
657 forecasts
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The controversy surrounding teacher Miriam Abu Bakr at Shirat Yam school will not lead to a formal Ministry of Education investigation or policy change within 30 days, as the issue remains localized.
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At least one additional Arab state will publicly distance itself from either Algeria or the UAE within 30 days of the severance announcement.
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The Supreme Court will reject Lt. Col. A's appeal to prevent the disclosure of his identity within 30 days, upholding the lower court's ruling that public interest outweighs privacy. Reference class: Israeli Supreme Court rulings on military gag orders and privacy (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for upholding lower court decisions in national security cases. Confidence adjusted up due to Judge Vardi's explicit finding of massive prior publicity.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to address the PISA decline within 30 days, as the election campaign shifts focus away from long-term reform.
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The shift in Palestinian public opinion toward negotiations will be cited by at least one Western foreign ministry as a basis for renewed peace initiative discussions within 30 days.
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The number of Haredi deserters arrested at border crossings will increase over the next 30 days as Rosh Hashanah approaches, with at least 100 total arrests reported by mid-October.
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The Likud's internal criticism of Bardugo will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly questioning his candidacy or its impact on the party's image.
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The police request for an additional extension of Eyal Nager's arrest will be approved by the court within 30 days.
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The UK-Israel diplomatic confrontation over personal sanctions will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional Israeli retaliatory measure beyond the street renaming proposal.
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Wizz Air's expansion of 46 weekly flights to and from Israel will proceed as announced within 30 days, with no cancellations or significant delays.
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Ben-Gvir will not approve senior police officer appointments before the October 27 election, despite police threats to petition the High Court. Reference class: Israeli ministers blocking appointments before elections (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for holding the line. Confidence adjusted up due to Ben-Gvir's stated position and the election proximity.
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Moumen Al-Natour will not receive a formal response from the Trump administration within 30 days regarding his request for a meeting.
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The IDF will announce a new policy regarding reservist exemptions for mental health reasons within the next 30 days, following the Ben Gurion Airport arrest. Reference class: IDF policy changes after high-profile reservist incidents (2015-2025); base rate ~45% for a policy announcement within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the public nature of the arrest and the attorney's claims.
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The Witkoff-Kushner mission to Moscow and Kyiv will not produce a public ceasefire framework within 30 days of their visit. Reference class: US diplomatic missions to Russia-Ukraine talks (2022-2026); base rate ~25% for a public framework within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile envoys and renewed US focus, but down due to entrenched positions. Expected indicators: confirming — no joint statement or framework announced within 30 days; falsifying — a public ceasefire framework is announced. Prerequisites: []
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The public tension between US ambassador Huckabee's stated positions and Israeli ministerial rhetoric on Gaza deportation will intensify over the next 30 days.
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The number of reported shootings in Arab communities in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the protection money racket escalates.
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The internal debate in Iran over the Strait of Hormuz strategy will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Iranian official publicly questioning the policy. Reference class: Iranian strategic debates (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for a public policy question within 30 days of a reported internal debate. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit framing in the atoms.
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The number of public protests in Jerusalem over Shabbat business closures will increase over the next 30 days, as secular and liberal groups mobilize in response to the Cafe in the Alley incident. Reference class: Jerusalem Shabbat protests (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a protest wave within 30 days of a high-profile closure. Confidence adjusted up due to the coffee cart action and Schwartz's explicit call to action.
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The IDF will not announce the closure of any ammunition production lines within the next 30 days, despite the warning letter, as the government will likely provide a short-term budget extension to avoid immediate shutdown. Reference class: Israeli defense budget crises (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for short-term stopgap funding. Confidence adjusted up due to the public nature of the warning and political pressure.
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The public and political pressure on Netanyahu regarding the October 7 investigations will intensify over the next 30 days, as new evidence of his failure to read them emerges.
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The US will not announce a withdrawal of naval forces from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, despite internal debate, as the risk of a global energy crisis remains high.
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The investigation of the child-marriage activist will result in an indictment within 30 days, given Judge Melamed's ruling that the suspicion remains at high intensity. Reference class: Israeli investigations of public figures for familial offenses (2018-2025); base rate ~55% for indictment within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the judge's explicit finding of danger and the existence of a signed contract as concrete evidence.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a final ruling on the Police Internal Investigations Department Law within 30 days, likely striking it down or requiring significant amendments.
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The disciplinary proceedings against police spokesman Aryeh Doron will result in a formal reprimand or suspension within 30 days, as the Police Disciplinary Department moves swiftly on high-profile internal cases.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The Ja'far Farah sexual harassment allegations will lead to his formal withdrawal from the Hadash list within 30 days, as internal and external pressure mounts.
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Additional European countries will announce purchases of Israeli air-defense systems within 30 days, following the Achilles Shield deal and the LORA test. Reference class: European air-defense procurement from Israel (2021-2025); base rate ~80% for follow-on deals within 30 days of a major test. Confidence adjusted up due to the LORA test's strategic timing amid tensions with Russia.
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Likud will not fall below 19 seats in polls within 30 days, as the party's core base remains stable despite Gottlieb's defection.
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Yair Golan will file a defamation lawsuit against Sara Netanyahu within 30 days if she does not issue a public apology.
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Britain will announce its comprehensive package of measures regarding Israeli settlements within 30 days, as Miliband's stated timeline narrows the window for delay.
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China will announce new investment deals with Egypt worth at least $5 billion within 30 days of Xi's visit, as part of the Belt and Road expansion.
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Sara Netanyahu's conspiracy claim against Yair Golan will continue to dominate Israeli political news cycles over the next 7 days, with at least two additional major political figures publicly condemning or defending the statement.
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The Smotrich-Feiglin technical bloc will be finalized and registered within 30 days, but will not include Ben Gvir or Vinter.
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The compensation ruling for the middle school student attacked by classmates will not be appealed by the municipality within 30 days, despite its claim the attack was a 'prank.'
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The US will reduce the tempo of its military strikes against Iran within 30 days, as the unsustainable campaign assessment forces operational adjustments.
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Shas will not secure an explicit exemption from conscription as a formal coalition condition within 30 days, as other coalition partners will resist the demand.
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Iran will not return to nuclear negotiations with the US within the next 30 days, as it conditions talks on the US first fulfilling commitments, a precondition the administration is unlikely to meet.
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The Treasury will transfer at least part of the 15 billion shekels in agreed defense funds within 30 days, as the security establishment's warnings about the budget gap intensify.
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The Gantz-Erdan merger talks will fail to produce a joint list by the September 8 deadline, as the leadership dispute remains unresolved.
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Saudi Arabia will seek alternative military partners for the Houthi campaign within 30 days, after the US refusal to lead.
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At least one additional MK from Likud will announce a departure to another party within 30 days, as internal fragmentation accelerates.
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The Volkswagen-Iron Dome production deal will face a public veto threat from the Qatari investment fund within 30 days, potentially delaying the conversion of the Osnabrück plant.
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The Supreme Court will issue a final ruling on the Tomer-Yerushalmi case transfer within 30 days, either upholding the freeze or allowing the transfer to proceed.
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The IDF will not receive the full 12+3 billion shekel transfer by the Rosh Hashanah deadline of September 11, leading to a partial halt in reserve duty call-ups within 30 days.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will exceed 300 by the end of September 2026, as the current pace of 291 since January continues without a new national safety plan.
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Shas will publicly campaign against Attorney General Baharav-Miara within 30 days, framing the commemoration postponement as a political attack on Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's legacy.
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The demand to reopen Road 463 will not result in a formal government decision within 30 days, as the security establishment's opposition remains unaddressed.
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The push to unite small right-wing parties under a technical bloc will fail within 30 days, as Netanyahu refrains from supporting the move.
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CIA Director Ratcliffe's unannounced Moscow visit will be followed by a public statement from the Kremlin or the White House confirming a specific area of discussion within 30 days.
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The Education Ministry will modify the nurse-for-aide pilot program before the August 30 deadline to avoid a High Court petition.