Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
340 forecasts
-
The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
-
The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
-
Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
-
Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
-
The IDF will announce at least one more targeted elimination of a Hamas commander in Gaza within 7 days.
-
The Lebanese army will deploy in at least two more villages in southern Lebanon within 30 days as part of the pilot program.
-
Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
-
The US will announce a new arms production initiative for long-range missiles within 30 days.
-
The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
-
Iraqi Shia groups under the 'Islamic Resistance' will carry out at least one attack on US forces in Iraq within 30 days.
-
Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
-
The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
-
CENTCOM will announce at least one more wave of strikes against Iranian military targets within 7 days.
-
Iranian-backed attacks on Kuwait will continue at a rate of at least 10 per week over the next 30 days.
-
Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
-
The IDF will report achieving the collapse of nearly 100% of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
-
The IDF will announce a formal investigation into the incident of five Israeli citizens crossing into Syria within 7 days.
-
The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
-
Additional US fighter squadrons will deploy to Jordan or Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of the F-16 squadron arrival.
-
The Ministry of Health will announce a pilot program to address Arab-Jewish workplace tensions in hospitals within 30 days, following the Abraham Initiatives study.
-
The Israel Fire and Rescue Services will issue a public advisory or operational update within 7 days regarding increased fire risk due to continued hot and dry weather, following the two large fires on July 18.
-
Magen David Adom will report an increase in drowning-related calls along the Mediterranean coast over the next 30 days, compared to the same period last year, following three drownings on a single Saturday.
-
Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
-
US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, targeting additional economic nodes beyond Bandar Abbas.
-
Police will announce a formal task force or dedicated investigative unit for domestic violence in Bat Yam within 30 days, following the stabbing of a pregnant woman and the 82% femicide increase.
-
The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
-
The National Insurance Institute will face increased public scrutiny or a Knesset committee hearing regarding caregiver background checks within 30 days.
-
The IDF will announce a formal investigation or disciplinary action against the soldier who criticized General Bluth within 30 days.
-
The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially navigable for commercial shipping over the next 30 days, despite Iranian threats, as both sides avoid a full blockade.
-
Ben-Gurion University will issue a public statement clarifying its policy on campus speech within 30 days, in response to the Parhi incident.
-
Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
-
The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
-
Iran will retaliate for the US airstrike that killed seven servicemen within 30 days, likely through a proxy attack on US or Israeli targets.
-
At least one additional suspect will be arrested in connection with the Japanika grenade attacks within 90 days.
-
Tnuva will face increased regulatory scrutiny or a market competition probe within 30 days following the cottage cheese shortage.
-
At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
-
The Houthis will attempt to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb within 90 days, but will not fully close the strait.
-
The IDF will announce measures to address the transport vehicle shortage in Gaza reserve brigades within 30 days, following public criticism.
-
President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
-
The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
-
Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
-
The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
-
Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
-
Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
-
Houthi attacks on Saudi targets will continue, with at least one more missile or drone strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility within 30 days.
-
The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
-
Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
-
The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
-
The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
-
Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.