Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
434 forecasts
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Yemeni government forces will announce at least one additional major offensive operation against Houthi positions in Taiz within the next 7 days.
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Morocco will deploy at least 200 troops to the ISF in Gaza within 90 days.
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At least one additional named candidate or party billboard will be reported vandalized or defaced before election day, extending the Golan billboard incident.
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The US, China, and Russia will not hold a three-way leaders' summit within the next 30 days.
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In the final week before the Knesset elections, at least one additional party polling near the 3.25% threshold will be the target of a public call by a named right-wing broadcaster or politician to drop out or consolidate, extending the Magal pattern.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! will finish the election with a larger Knesset faction than Likud, judged by the official Central Elections Committee results.
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The Israeli government will not establish a specialized enforcement unit to combat child marriage, as recommended by the Yavne'el report, within 90 days.
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The witness-tampering investigation involving Commissioner Alona Shoshan will result in at least one formal charging decision or a closed-file notice from the investigating body within 90 days.
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European Union member states will keep the question of suspending Israel's preferred trade status unresolved over the next 30 days, with no published Council decision suspending the association agreement's trade provisions.
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At least one additional foreign engineering or construction firm will publicly announce withdrawal from a Jerusalem infrastructure project over the next 90 days, extending the cable car pattern.
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The Egyptian parliament will approve the military deployment authorization requested by President Sisi within 7 days of the vote being held.
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The 'Brigade C' plan for 700–800 police in Area C will remain unfunded and unlaunched 30 days out, with no published government budget line approving it.
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The Joint List will maintain external-support conditions rather than join any coalition, and no signed coalition agreement listing the Joint List as a member will be submitted to the Knesset within 30 days.
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The Eisenkot bloc's seat advantage over the Netanyahu bloc will narrow or reverse in at least one major poll before election day.
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The French government will announce at least one new security measure specifically targeting antisemitic incitement online within 30 days.
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The 'Relay Race' extortion case will expand, with at least one additional suspect publicly named or arrested within 30 days.
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At least one additional named Israeli or international press-freedom body will publish a formal statement or report naming violence against journalists in the West Bank within 90 days.
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The Israeli government will approve a defense budget increase for 2026 smaller than the 40 billion shekels the military has requested, with the gap covered by further cuts to civilian ministry budgets or reserve transfers.
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The Gur Hasidic sect's call to vote for United Torah Judaism will hold, with no new boycott threat from the sect emerging before the election.
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The Tekuma Directorate budget will be cut by less than the full NIS 140 million proposed, or the cut will be deferred past the October 27 election, as coalition parties compete for Gaza-envelope voters.
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The Israel Antiquities Authority will not take any publicly announced practical steps to protect the Mamilla cemetery within 30 days, maintaining its current stance of passive monitoring.
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The frequency of settler attacks on West Bank agriculture will not decrease over the next 90 days, with at least one additional weekly report showing losses exceeding $500,000.
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At least one additional commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz will be reported by UKMTO or a national maritime authority as struck by a mine or projectile over the next 30 days, sustaining the pattern set by the two tankers and the Saudi-coast incident.
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The Trump administration will not fully lift the freeze on most Russia sanctions within 30 days; the executive order will remain in force without a signed reversal or a formal reimposition announcement.
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The shooting crime rate in Ba'ana will not decrease within 30 days, with at least one additional shooting incident reported in the town.
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The EU will publicly announce a formal timeline for the proposed Chinese import restrictions within 30 days, moving from von der Leyen's announcement to a concrete legislative schedule.
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World sugar prices will remain at least 10% above last year's level within 90 days, sustained by Indian ethanol policy and reduced harvests.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional country announcing new sanctions or recalling its ambassador from Tehran.
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At least one European government will publicly condemn the Torcida chants and launch an official investigation into the incident within 90 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not impose emergency economic measures on Bnei Brak within 30 days, despite the city's 130 million shekel deficit and the ministry's threat, as the Shas-controlled ministry will seek a negotiated solution.
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China will issue at least one further public statement or diplomatic note specifically criticizing Israeli settlement activity within 30 days, extending the Baku demand into a sustained pattern.
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No single Israeli party or bloc will secure a decisive 61-seat majority in the certified October 27 Knesset results, leaving coalition formation dependent on at least one cross-bloc partner.
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China will not broker a formal agreement or joint communiqué between Israel and the Palestinian Authority within 90 days, despite the Baku meetings.
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The Red Team's kidnapping-thwarting drills will be extended beyond the Gaza Strip to at least one additional front or command within 30 days, indicated by a named IDF announcement or a report citing a named officer.
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The Saudi-led coalition will publicly name at least one specific regional party as the source of Houthi advanced technology within 30 days, escalating from general accusations to a direct attribution.
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The Lebanese state will not forcibly disarm Hezbollah's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 90 days; the standoff over the 500 kg explosives will remain unresolved or be resolved through a negotiated return.
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The Likud-Religious Zionism observer deployment in Arab polling stations will face at least one legal challenge or public condemnation from a civil rights organization within 30 days.
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The cancellation of the Haredi draft arrest operation will lead to at least one public statement from a High Court justice or former justice criticizing the police decision within 30 days.
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The Israel Police will face at least one formal complaint or petition to the High Court of Justice regarding its failure to respond to gunfire incidents in Moshav Azriel within 30 days.
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At least one more Israeli drama series will be announced or renewed for a new season within 30 days, sustaining the current pace of new content.
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Egypt's President Sisi will issue at least one further public statement or diplomatic protest regarding Israeli officials' remarks about Sinai within 30 days, extending the current response into a pattern rather than a one-off.
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The prosecution will appeal the lenient indictment in the Ma'ale Adumim case within 30 days, citing the suspect's explicit threat to carry out an attack.
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Hezbollah will announce at least one further tranche of compensation or reconstruction payments to displaced Lebanese households within 30 days, extending the current plan into a series rather than a one-off.
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The right-wing bloc will not recover to 61 or more seats in published polls within 30 days, remaining below the governing threshold.
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The proportion of women in the next Knesset will not reach the predicted record of 33; the final number will be 30 or fewer.
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At least one more violent incident involving organized crime figures will be publicly reported in Umm al-Fahm within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the past 12 hours.
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David Abuaziz will be sentenced to life imprisonment within 30 days, given the aggravating circumstances of the murder conviction and his prior life sentence.
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Egypt will not formally join a Saudi-led regional defense alliance within 30 days; Cairo's offer will remain at the level of declared readiness rather than a signed accession.
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The Water Authority will publish at least one further quantified warning about northern water sources within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the current alert rather than a single statement.
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The Irgun Museum in Binyamina will host at least one further publicly reported commemorative event tied to Altalena or Irgun heritage within 90 days, extending the current transfer into a series rather than a one-off.