Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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The disciplinary proceedings against police spokesman Aryeh Doron will result in a formal reprimand or suspension within 30 days, as the Police Disciplinary Department moves swiftly on high-profile internal cases.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The number of anti-Semitic incidents in Spain will continue to rise over the next 90 days, driven by the ongoing political fallout from the Ceuta migration crisis.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a temporary injunction requiring the advisory committee to provide security for Yair Golan within 90 days, given the police's own high risk assessment.
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Iran will not resume full IAEA inspector access to its enrichment facilities within 90 days, as the regime continues to conceal its nuclear activities amid US pressure. Reference class: Iran-IAEA access disputes (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for full access resumption within 90 days of a report. Confidence adjusted up due to the long duration of the block (since June 2025) and the escalating US strikes.
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The Ja'far Farah sexual harassment allegations will lead to his formal withdrawal from the Hadash list within 30 days, as internal and external pressure mounts.
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The Haifa District Attorney's Office will file additional charges against Khamis Suaed within 90 days, expanding the indictment beyond the initial ISIS-related offenses.
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The frozen NIS 400,000 in the Haifa District Court rape compensation ruling will remain frozen for at least 30 days, with no appeal or payment order issued. Reference class: Israeli civil compensation rulings with frozen portions (2017-2024); base rate ~55% for no change within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the case and the defendant's likely financial constraints.
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The IDF will confirm the elimination of the remaining 10-15 Hezbollah terrorists in the Ali Taher ridge tunnels within 90 days, as the siege and military activity continue. Reference class: IDF tunnel clearance operations in southern Lebanon (2024-2025); base rate ~70% for full clearance within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the difficulty of confirming kills in tunnel networks.
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Additional European countries will announce purchases of Israeli air-defense systems within 30 days, following the Achilles Shield deal and the LORA test. Reference class: European air-defense procurement from Israel (2021-2025); base rate ~80% for follow-on deals within 30 days of a major test. Confidence adjusted up due to the LORA test's strategic timing amid tensions with Russia.
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Turkey will not formally apply for SCO full membership within 90 days, as the diplomatic cost of antagonizing NATO partners outweighs the symbolic benefit.
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Yair Golan will file a defamation lawsuit against Sara Netanyahu within 30 days if she does not issue a public apology.
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Likud will not fall below 19 seats in polls within 30 days, as the party's core base remains stable despite Gottlieb's defection.
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The tension between Haredi enlistment and rabbinical opposition will intensify over the next 90 days, as the 30% enlistment increase is met with more public orders to leave the IDF. Reference class: Haredi draft crises in Israel (2017-2024); base rate ~60% for escalation after an enlistment surge. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature of the Salim order.
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Israel will not impose retaliatory sanctions against Britain within 90 days, despite Sa'ar's threat, as the diplomatic cost of escalating with a key European partner outweighs the benefit.
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Britain will announce its comprehensive package of measures regarding Israeli settlements within 30 days, as Miliband's stated timeline narrows the window for delay.
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China will announce new investment deals with Egypt worth at least $5 billion within 30 days of Xi's visit, as part of the Belt and Road expansion.
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Sara Netanyahu's conspiracy claim against Yair Golan will continue to dominate Israeli political news cycles over the next 7 days, with at least two additional major political figures publicly condemning or defending the statement.
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The number of investigations into IDF medication trafficking will increase over the next 90 days following the arrest of pharmacist Victoria Motola, as authorities expand their probe into the Glilot base pharmacy network.
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Iran will increase its naval reconnaissance and harassment operations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea within 90 days, leveraging the resurrected general's plans.
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Violence against public transportation drivers will continue to be reported at a rate of at least 40 cases per month over the next 30 days, as the underlying safety conditions remain unaddressed.
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The compensation ruling for the middle school student attacked by classmates will not be appealed by the municipality within 30 days, despite its claim the attack was a 'prank.'
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Yair Golan will ultimately recommend Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, despite his current non-commitment.
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The Smotrich-Feiglin technical bloc will be finalized and registered within 30 days, but will not include Ben Gvir or Vinter.
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Finland will not reverse its UNRWA funding decision within 90 days, as the domestic political calculus tied to the April elections will outweigh international pressure.
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The number of military police investigations into looting in Gaza and Lebanon will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days, as the gap between Chief of Staff Zamir's public condemnation and the low indictment rate draws media scrutiny.
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The settlement expansion in the Hebron Hills will accelerate over the next 90 days, with at least one of the planned settlements (Meged or Ma'ale Enav) seeing families move in.
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The teacher shortage in Israel will not be significantly reduced within 90 days, as no new major recruitment or salary reform is announced.
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The US will announce a partial drawdown of troops from CENTCOM within 90 days, as the fleet readiness crisis forces reallocation to other theaters.
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The US will reduce the tempo of its military strikes against Iran within 30 days, as the unsustainable campaign assessment forces operational adjustments.
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The Advisory Committee on Security Affairs will recommend approving Shin Bet security for Gadi Eisenkot within 90 days, but the ministers may delay or reject the recommendation.
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Shas will not secure an explicit exemption from conscription as a formal coalition condition within 30 days, as other coalition partners will resist the demand.
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Iran will not return to nuclear negotiations with the US within the next 30 days, as it conditions talks on the US first fulfilling commitments, a precondition the administration is unlikely to meet.
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Hezbollah will not begin a substantive disarmament process within 90 days, as linking it to Hamas/Islamic Jihad disarmament provides a delaying mechanism.
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The Treasury will transfer at least part of the 15 billion shekels in agreed defense funds within 30 days, as the security establishment's warnings about the budget gap intensify.
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Saudi Arabia will seek alternative military partners for the Houthi campaign within 30 days, after the US refusal to lead.
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The Trump administration will appeal Judge Wise's ruling on visa revocations for pro-Palestinian activity within 90 days, escalating the constitutional challenge.
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The Gantz-Erdan merger talks will fail to produce a joint list by the September 8 deadline, as the leadership dispute remains unresolved.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party will not cross the electoral threshold in the October 27 elections, leading to its dissolution.
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Iran will execute at least 100 more people within the next 30 days, maintaining the current pace of executions.
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At least one additional MK from Likud will announce a departure to another party within 30 days, as internal fragmentation accelerates.
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The Joint List will not be fully reunited within 90 days, as internal disagreements over seat distribution persist.
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The parole board's decision to reduce Monder Issa's sentence will face a formal appeal by the state or the victim's family within 30 days.
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The US will formally request allied nations to replenish Patriot and THAAD stocks within 90 days, acknowledging the depletion from the war with Iran.
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The share of Arab Israeli doctors will remain stable or increase slightly over the next 90 days, as no new medical schools are announced to address the shortage.
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Russia will not launch a major new offensive in Ukraine within 90 days, despite the perception of US weakness, as its own military capacity remains constrained.
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Nepal will accept international aid for flood relief within 90 days, as the death toll and missing persons numbers strain domestic capacity.
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The Supreme Court will issue a final ruling on the Tomer-Yerushalmi case transfer within 30 days, either upholding the freeze or allowing the transfer to proceed.
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The Volkswagen-Iron Dome production deal will face a public veto threat from the Qatari investment fund within 30 days, potentially delaying the conversion of the Osnabrück plant.
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The IDF will not receive the full 12+3 billion shekel transfer by the Rosh Hashanah deadline of September 11, leading to a partial halt in reserve duty call-ups within 30 days.