Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1116 forecasts
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.
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Mortgage volumes will remain above 10 billion shekels per month for at least two of the next three months, sustaining the June surge.
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will publicly reiterate his pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem if elected, but no concrete diplomatic steps will be taken before the 2026 election.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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Rafael's factory in India will begin production of Iron Dome interceptors within 90 days, as a strategic move to diversify supply chains.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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The IDF will continue airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons storage sites in southern Lebanon over the next 30 days, as diplomatic efforts to implement the June 26 withdrawal agreement stall.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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Qatar's veto of the Volkswagen-Rafael deal will not be overturned, and Rafael will advance its India production line as an alternative.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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The IDF will continue to reduce reserve soldier call-ups, with numbers dropping below 50,000 within 30 days, as financial constraints persist.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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IDF operations in Gaza will continue at current tempo, with at least one more targeted killing of a mid-level militant commander within 30 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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The low indictment rate for settler violence (6.6%) will be cited by human rights groups in international forums to push for sanctions or diplomatic measures against Israeli authorities.
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US-Iran military exchanges will continue with at least one more round of strikes within 7 days.
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The October 7 commemoration bill will pass into law within 90 days, but will face controversy over its scope and implementation.
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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The Irish ban on settlement imports will be followed by at least one other EU member state introducing similar legislation within 90 days.
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The State Comptroller's audit on prostitution law enforcement will lead to legislative proposals to reform the law within 90 days.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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Bar Kupershtein's public appeal will lead to at least one government or NGO initiative to support released hostage reintegration within 90 days.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.