Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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The IDF will secure an alternative procurement of attack helicopters within 90 days to compensate for the missed Apache deal.
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The disparity in shelter access between Jewish and Arab communities will be addressed by a government committee within 90 days, following media pressure.
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Ben-Gurion University will issue a public statement clarifying its policy on campus speech within 30 days, in response to the Parhi incident.
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Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
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The Privacy Protection Authority will issue new guidelines for age verification in online sales of smoking products within 90 days, following the Smoking Cessation Initiative's call.
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The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
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Tnuva will face increased regulatory scrutiny or a market competition probe within 30 days following the cottage cheese shortage.
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The Israeli Defense Ministry's strategic plan with India will yield a formal memorandum of understanding or joint defense project announcement within 90 days.
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At least one additional suspect will be arrested in connection with the Japanika grenade attacks within 90 days.
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Iran will retaliate for the US airstrike that killed seven servicemen within 30 days, likely through a proxy attack on US or Israeli targets.
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Bnei Brak's gender-segregated street policy will face a legal challenge at the High Court of Justice within 90 days.
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At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
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The IDF will announce measures to address the transport vehicle shortage in Gaza reserve brigades within 30 days, following public criticism.
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The Houthis will attempt to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb within 90 days, but will not fully close the strait.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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The controversy over PEN America's stance on cultural boycotts will lead to at least one more prominent resignation or public protest from a board member within 90 days.
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The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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The IDF will increase enforcement along the Syrian border to prevent civilian crossings, following the detention of activists and the 'Pioneers of Bashan' incident.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
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Houthi attacks on Saudi targets will continue, with at least one more missile or drone strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility within 30 days.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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Mortgage volumes will remain above 10 billion shekels per month for at least two of the next three months, sustaining the June surge.
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Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will publicly reiterate his pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem if elected, but no concrete diplomatic steps will be taken before the 2026 election.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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The IDF will continue airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons storage sites in southern Lebanon over the next 30 days, as diplomatic efforts to implement the June 26 withdrawal agreement stall.
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Rafael's factory in India will begin production of Iron Dome interceptors within 90 days, as a strategic move to diversify supply chains.
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Qatar's veto of the Volkswagen-Rafael deal will not be overturned, and Rafael will advance its India production line as an alternative.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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The IDF will continue to reduce reserve soldier call-ups, with numbers dropping below 50,000 within 30 days, as financial constraints persist.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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IDF operations in Gaza will continue at current tempo, with at least one more targeted killing of a mid-level militant commander within 30 days.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.