Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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Ukraine will launch another drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure within 7 days.
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At least one more violent incident involving journalists or LGBTQ+ individuals in Israel within 7 days, given the spray-painted death threats and the arrest of a Haifa resident for threatening the LGBTQ+ community.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one drone attack against IDF forces or northern Israel within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the recent attack wounding four reservists.
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Cyera will officially announce its $300 million funding round at a $12 billion valuation within 30 days.
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Iran will impose at least one physical inspection or denial of passage on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days, citing the new permission requirement.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the 'rising learning curve'.
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Bank of Israel will cut its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points within 30 days, following Governor Yaron's hint that faster expansionary policy is justified if inflation expectations fall.
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The Hungarian parliament will not pass the constitutional amendment to impeach President Sulyok within 30 days, due to insufficient governing majority.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, despite Trump's ceasefire claim, given the sirens in Metula hours after his statement.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile towards a US target in the Gulf within 7 days, following the pattern of the intercepted missiles over Kuwait.
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The Jerusalem Faction will carry out at least one more protest involving property damage or clashes with police within 7 days, following the Beit Shemesh incident.
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Haifa municipality will suspend the inspector who slapped the 15-year-old boy within 30 days, following public pressure.
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Haifa municipality will issue a public statement within 7 days announcing an investigation into the inspector who slapped the 15-year-old boy.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, following the pattern of recent barrages and the Beaufort capture.
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Yair Golan's call to include Arab parties in a future coalition will not result in a formal coalition agreement within 30 days, but will spark public debate among opposition leaders.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical supplies within 30 days, citing the depletion of 50% of essential medicines.
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The Israeli cabinet will approve the north rehabilitation, protection, and tax benefits plan at the special meeting scheduled for June 2, 2026.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical gauze donations within 30 days, citing the acute shortage.
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Iran will conduct at least one more Strait of Hormuz transit announcement or military demonstration within 30 days, following the pattern of the 28-ship transit and drone downing.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, following the pattern of recent sirens and security warnings.
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Yair Golan's call to include Arab parties in a future coalition will lead to a public debate within the opposition, but no formal coalition agreement will be reached within 30 days.
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Hezbollah will increase the frequency of cross-border attacks, with at least three incidents reported within 30 days, following the Iran deal momentum.
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Israeli police will make an arrest in the settler run-over case of Yamama Abdul Mumin Ahmad Abdullah within 30 days.
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Haifa municipality will suspend the inspector who slapped Ez al-Din Muad within 30 days, following public pressure.
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The Knesset will hold a discussion on violence against the LGBTQ community within 90 days, following Attorney Nimrod Gorenstein's remarks.
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The number of reported settler attacks on Palestinian agricultural lands will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year, following the camel release incident.
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Haifa municipality will issue a public statement within 7 days announcing an investigation into the inspector who slapped Ez al-Din Muad.
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The IDF Chief of Staff will publicly warn within 7 days that a withdrawal from Lebanon without political warning could escalate casualties, using the phrase 'withdrawal under fire' or equivalent.
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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will deliver a speech within 7 days publicly opposing the emerging US-Iran deal and calling for preserving military options.
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Iran will officially announce within 7 days that it has agreed to allow IAEA inspectors access to declared nuclear facilities as part of ongoing US negotiations.
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The Likud party court will reject the motion to cancel primaries, but Netanyahu will announce a new selection mechanism for the party list within 7 days.
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The United States will publicly deny any agreement to establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran within 30 days.
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Hezbollah will claim responsibility for a rocket or drone launch from southern Lebanon within 7 days, retaliating for the IDF drone interception.