Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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Brent crude oil will remain above $95 per barrel for at least 15 of the next 30 trading days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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Jordan will expel at least one Iranian diplomat within 30 days in response to missile strikes on its territory.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The shekel will remain at or above NIS 3.05 per USD for at least the next 30 days.
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Israel's academic growth rate among 25-34 year olds will remain below the OECD average for the next 90 days, with no new major policy initiatives announced to reverse the trend.
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The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
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Meta will expand StoryKit availability beyond Mexico within 30 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
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Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
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The IDF will announce at least one more targeted elimination of a Hamas commander in Gaza within 7 days.
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The Lebanese army will deploy in at least two more villages in southern Lebanon within 30 days as part of the pilot program.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on emergency preparedness for senior citizens in the Gaza envelope within 90 days.
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Iraqi Shia groups under the 'Islamic Resistance' will carry out at least one attack on US forces in Iraq within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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The US will announce a new arms production initiative for long-range missiles within 30 days.
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The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more wave of strikes against Iranian military targets within 7 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
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The Elem report's findings will prompt a Knesset committee hearing on youth violence within 90 days.
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Iranian-backed attacks on Kuwait will continue at a rate of at least 10 per week over the next 30 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation into the incident of five Israeli citizens crossing into Syria within 7 days.
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The Ministry of Labor will announce a new enforcement campaign on construction site safety within 90 days, following 23 construction worker deaths since the start of the year.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The IDF will report achieving the collapse of nearly 100% of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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Additional US fighter squadrons will deploy to Jordan or Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of the F-16 squadron arrival.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a pilot program to address Arab-Jewish workplace tensions in hospitals within 30 days, following the Abraham Initiatives study.
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The Israel Fire and Rescue Services will issue a public advisory or operational update within 7 days regarding increased fire risk due to continued hot and dry weather, following the two large fires on July 18.
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Magen David Adom will report an increase in drowning-related calls along the Mediterranean coast over the next 30 days, compared to the same period last year, following three drownings on a single Saturday.
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The University of Tokyo's findings on climate and suicide will be cited in at least one major policy proposal or parliamentary discussion in an OECD country within 90 days.
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Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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At least one additional Arab state will join the military coalition against the Houthis within 90 days, following the pattern of Kuwait and the UAE.
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US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, targeting additional economic nodes beyond Bandar Abbas.
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Police will announce a formal task force or dedicated investigative unit for domestic violence in Bat Yam within 30 days, following the stabbing of a pregnant woman and the 82% femicide increase.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
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The National Insurance Institute will face increased public scrutiny or a Knesset committee hearing regarding caregiver background checks within 30 days.
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The incoming Colombian government will formally withdraw from the ICJ genocide lawsuit against Israel within 90 days, following the agreement between Sa'ar and Escobar.
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The use of explosive devices by criminal organizations in Israel will see a measurable increase in the next 90 days, reversing the reported 30% decrease.
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The US-Israel relationship will face a public rift within 90 days, as Arab diplomatic pressure on Trump to distance from Netanyahu intensifies.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation or disciplinary action against the soldier who criticized General Bluth within 30 days.
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The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially navigable for commercial shipping over the next 30 days, despite Iranian threats, as both sides avoid a full blockade.