Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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Israel will seek to counter the railway deal by accelerating diplomatic and economic ties with Greece and Cyprus.
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Public sharing of personal trauma on Israeli social media will increase over the next 30 days as a coping mechanism during ongoing rocket attacks.
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The number of violent incidents in Israel's Arab sector will increase over the next 30 days, as family feuds and organized crime continue unchecked.
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The Turkey-Saudi railway project will not be operational within 365 days due to security and financing hurdles.
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Interest in US air travel from Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, driven by advance booking trends.
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Iran will not close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within 30 days, despite threats, as doing so would risk a wider US military response.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, following the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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Iran will launch at least one more missile or drone salvo toward Israel within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the IDF's preparation for further fire.
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US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days, but will not expand into a full-scale operation as Trump seeks to maintain diplomatic options.
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Trump will not declare 'total victory' over Iran within two weeks; instead, negotiations will continue without a breakthrough.
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US-Iran negotiations will continue over the next 30 days, with no final agreement reached, as Iran demands sanctions relief upfront.
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The shekel will weaken further against the dollar over the next 30 days as security tensions persist and the Bank of Israel refrains from intervention.
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Hezbollah will launch additional rockets or drones at northern Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of tit-for-tat strikes.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, despite the current quiet, as part of the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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US pressure on Israel to de-escalate with Iran will increase, as Trump seeks to avoid a broader regional war.
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The number of murder victims in the Palestinian community will exceed 130 within 30 days, given the current rate of violence.
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The EU will expand sanctions on Iranian entities within 30 days, following the recent sanctions on two Iranians and an IRGC unit for the Hormuz blockade.
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Hezbollah will retaliate for the Beirut strike with a significant cross-border attack within 30 days, given the new Israeli policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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Coalition internal tensions over ultra-Orthodox conscription will intensify as Shas pushes for equalization of yeshiva students with soldiers.
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The IDF will face increasing public and legal pressure to release data on ultra-Orthodox conscription within 30 days, potentially leading to a court order.
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Berri's ceasefire offer will not lead to a formal agreement within 30 days due to Hezbollah's refusal to disarm.
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The Knesset will hold a preliminary vote on granting immunity to Tali Gottlieb within 7 days, given the coalition's insistence and majority.
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France will announce new sanctions on Israeli settlers and entities within 30 days, given Barrot's threat of imminent action.
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The US will not finalize a purchase of the Chagos Islands within 90 days, given the complexity of negotiations with Mauritius.
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The number of civilian gun owners in Israel will exceed 350,000 within 30 days, given the current trajectory of simplified licensing and the security situation.
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SOCAR will increase its LNG supply to Egypt by at least 20% within 30 days, as regional demand for non-Iranian gas rises.
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Israeli arrest campaigns in the West Bank will continue at a similar or higher frequency over the next 7 days, targeting at least one academic or public figure.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the pattern of daily violations and the IDF's admission of no hermetic solution.
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The US will not announce an end to security aid to Israel by July 4, 2026, despite Stutzman's push, as Trump's Iran strategy requires maintaining leverage over Israel.
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The Ramallah government will fail to secure full clearance fund transfers from Israel within 30 days, maintaining its deficit above 1 billion shekels monthly.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given the release of tank-attack footage and the IDF's continued strikes.
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At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the riot outside Justice Solberg's home.
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The Knesset will not pass the law splitting the Attorney General's office before the next election, given opposition from Deputy AG and the need to amend 250 laws.
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The US and Iran will announce a framework agreement on nuclear negotiations within 30 days, despite Trump's ultimatum.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile or drone attack targeting US or allied forces in the Gulf within 7 days.
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US and Iran will not finalize a nuclear deal within 7 days, given the deadlock and $24B demand.
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Israel and Hezbollah will not reach a finalized ceasefire agreement within 7 days, given Berri's 'vague' criticism and the gap between Ravid's optimism and Trump's Iran-first strategy.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire.
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At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the extended detentions and the pattern of escalation.
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The Likud convention will fail to approve primary regulations by June 25 due to the frozen powers, leading to a court challenge.
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The US House will not pass any resolution to remove troops from Lebanon within 7 days, given the 92-324 vote blocking Tlaib's resolution.
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Hezbollah will conduct at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire and the drone strike on UNIFIL.
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Haredi protests against conscription will escalate, with at least one more violent incident involving an IDF soldier or police within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will not cease fire south of the Litani River within 7 days, despite the US-announced ceasefire agreement.
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US and Iran will not finalize a nuclear deal by June 6, 2026, despite Trump's claim that a deal could be reached by the weekend.
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Israel will publicly announce a temporary freeze on settlement expansion within 30 days, following US pressure and the House vote limiting Trump's Iran war powers.
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Bank of Israel will cut its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points within 30 days, following the shekel weakness and OECD deficit warning.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border rocket or drone attack within 7 days, given the IDF's expanded operations and the pattern of daily violations.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile towards a US target in the Gulf within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one drone attack against IDF forces or northern Israel within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the recent siren activations.