Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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The US will publicly reiterate its demand for Israel to halt operations in Lebanon within 30 days, but Israel will not comply.
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The housing market slowdown will continue, with sales in the next quarter falling at least another 5% compared to the current quarter.
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The Israeli Ministry of Health will issue a recall or safety alert for 'Prinok' brand fruit puree within 30 days, following the benzodiazepine contamination incident.
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International humanitarian organizations will publicly call for emergency access to deliver generator maintenance supplies to Nasser Medical Complex within 30 days.
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The complaint against police spokesperson Aryeh Doron will lead to an internal investigation or disciplinary action within 90 days.
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The IDF will report a violation of the new proactive fire ban by a unit in Lebanon within 7 days, leading to an internal investigation.
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Gur Levy will be convicted of invasion of privacy but acquitted of rape, given his admission to filming and denial of rape.
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The 'Russian Scam' case will expand, with additional indictments filed within 30 days as authorities target the network's organizers.
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Gulf states will publicly express security concerns about the US-Iran deal within 30 days, with at least one state signaling a potential normalization with Iran.
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The Indian Army will order additional Meprolight optics for other weapon systems within 30 days, following the Negev selection.
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The IDF will announce an internal review or new security protocols for AI tools built by soldiers within 7 days following the TheMarker investigation.
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Israel will conduct another targeted killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
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European countries will announce concrete conditions for lifting sanctions on Iran within 7 days.
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Coalition infighting over settler violence and Iran response will intensify, with at least one public resignation or ultimatum from a senior minister within 30 days.
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Eisenkot's party will gain additional Knesset seats in at least one further poll within 7 days, maintaining its lead over Bennett.
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The ceasefire will partially hold for 90 days, but will be violated by at least one significant incident involving Hezbollah or Iranian-backed militias within the same period.
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At least one other major supermarket chain will raise dairy prices by at least 3% within 30 days, following Carrefour's lead.
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Iran will not launch a direct ballistic missile attack on Israel within 30 days, but will increase proxy actions via Hezbollah and Hamas.
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Threats to investigate media figures like Amnon Abramovich will escalate, with the State Prosecutor's Office announcing a formal inquiry within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will increase drone and rocket launches toward northern Israel in response to the Beirut strike and Daqdouq elimination, causing more civilian casualties or IDF interceptions.
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Engineering challenges will delay the demolition of Hezbollah's tunnel city under Beaufort Castle by at least 7 days beyond the initial timeline.
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The Israel Securities Authority will issue a public statement on Victory's compliance with disclosure rules within 7 days.
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AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will weaken further over the next 90 days, as more candidates emulate Lander's rejection of funding.
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Public statements from local council heads criticizing the government's handling of northern security will multiply within 7 days.
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The US-Iran memorandum will be signed on June 14 despite Iranian denials, but will face immediate implementation hurdles.
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Israel will intensify diplomatic efforts to undermine the US-Iran deal over the next 90 days, including lobbying US Congress and European allies.
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The open letter to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir will prompt an official IDF investigation into alleged misconduct in the occupied territories within 30 days.
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European diplomatic pressure on Israel will intensify over the next 90 days as Portugal's condemnation and Ireland's boycott bill set a precedent.
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The US will increase diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to dismantle proxy militias in Iraq and Lebanon over the next 30 days, without a breakthrough on Hezbollah.
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Netanyahu will publicly reject the emerging US-Iran nuclear deal within 30 days, citing security concerns.
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US military will shoot down additional Iranian drones targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days.
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The Board of Peace's Gaza governance plan will face significant delays as Tony Blair's expanded role fails to overcome differences among stakeholders.
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Amir Maron will be released on bail within 7 days despite incitement charges.
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Russia will commission additional military infrastructure within 90 km of the Finnish border within 90 days, as detected by satellite imagery.
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The Greek PM's warning and Zisser's critique will fuel a broader European reconsideration of diplomatic approaches to Israel, with some EU states publicly expressing unease.
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The release of Hassan Yousef will amplify internal pressure on Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire, as his moderate stance may be leveraged by external mediators.
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The Israeli police will issue new guidelines on political expression at public events within 90 days following the Pride parade controversy.
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Efforts to form a new right-center satellite party will become public within 7 days, aiming to capture centrist voters while remaining aligned with Likud.
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Internal pressure on Netanyahu to cancel Likud primaries will intensify over the next 30 days, as party comptroller's ruling and MK opposition create legal and political hurdles.
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The IDF will expand operations to the Zaharani River line within 30 days, as part of a containment strategy.
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The closure of Bar Video will accelerate the decline of LGBTQ+ nightlife in Jerusalem, with no new dedicated venue opening within 90 days.
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IDF will maintain operational pressure in southern Lebanon without an immediate political decision on Nabatieh, limiting major advances for the next 7 days.
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Over the next 30 days, the debate over integrating women into the Armored Corps will escalate, leading to either a formal policy revision or a wider coalition crisis.
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Turkey will increase its diplomatic mediation between the US and Iran over the next 30 days, leveraging its relationship with both sides.
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US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days as Trump seeks to force a diplomatic deal.
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Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days without significant sanctions relief.
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Tensions between Likud and Shas will escalate over the Basic Law: Torah Study, leading to a coalition crisis within 30 days.
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Haredi street protests against conscription will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one large-scale demonstration drawing over 10,000 participants.
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The northern protest movement will expand to other excluded communities, pressuring the government to revise its aid criteria within 90 days.
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The trend of high-priced tourist traps in Rome will continue to attract media attention and consumer backlash over the next 90 days.