Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1090 forecasts
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International human rights organizations will issue a joint report condemning conditions in Israeli prisons, citing the al-Barsh case, within 90 days.
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The IDF will publicly disclose evidence linking Hezbollah's ceasefire violations to Iranian direction within 90 days.
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Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
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Within 90 days, the Houthis will announce or implement a fee for ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb, following discussions with Iran.
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At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The NYPD will officially classify the hammer attack at the Jewish Institute of Queens as a hate crime within 90 days, despite initial belief it was random.
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The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
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The Likud party will formally adopt digital primaries for its candidate selection within 30 days.
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The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
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Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
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The United States will impose new restrictions on Israeli military operations in the West Bank within 90 days, following the Turmus Ayya incident.
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Pressure on Lapid to dissolve the union with Bennett will result in a public announcement of separation within 30 days.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
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The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
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Internal coalition tensions over the draft exemption will lead to at least one public ultimatum from a Haredi party within 90 days.
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Iran will execute at least 5 of the 10 young men sentenced to death within 90 days, despite UN calls to halt.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
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The IDF will announce a reduction in counterterrorism battalion strength in the West Bank within 30 days due to diversion to outpost enforcement.
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Iran-aligned militias in Iraq will launch at least one more drone or missile attack against Saudi Arabia within 30 days.
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The Finance Ministry will raise at least one major tax rate within 90 days after the elections, rather than implementing structural reforms.
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.
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The Israeli government will announce a plan to establish a state-run correspondent bank within 30 days to prevent disruption of PA transfers.
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The number of Hezbollah drone incursions into Israeli airspace will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 90 days.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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The IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one incident of reservists using physical force against Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria within 30 days.
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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At least one new Israeli government initiative to support orphans in Gaza will be announced within 90 days, following the Social Development Ministry's national platform launch.
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The IDF will face increased pressure to reclassify the Samaria incident as a battle rather than 'operational activity' within 90 days.
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Iranian oil revenues will continue to flow despite the US naval blockade, with at least one new report of a tanker breaching the blockade within 30 days.
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The internal Iranian power struggle between civilian leadership and Revolutionary Guards will become more visible, with at least one public policy rift reported in major media within 90 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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At least one additional snakebite incident in residential areas of Beit Shemesh will be reported in the next 90 days.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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The US will announce a new military deployment to the Persian Gulf within 30 days in response to Iranian threats.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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South Korean women will not achieve an average life expectancy exceeding 90 years by 2030, as predicted, due to low birth rates and aging population pressures.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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The IDF will expand its operation in Judea and Samaria beyond current reinforcement within 30 days, despite Chief of Staff Zamir's earlier opposition.
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The Welfare Ministry will open fewer than 50 new places in locked youth facilities within 90 days, despite the current waitlist of 132 children.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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Brent crude oil will remain above $95 per barrel for at least 15 of the next 30 trading days.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.