Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
-
The High Court will rule on the NIS 270 million haredi education transfer within 30 days, either approving or blocking it.
-
The Democratic Party's shift away from unconditional support for Israel will intensify, with at least one more incumbent critic of Israel losing a primary within 90 days.
-
The number of Israeli strikes in Gaza will decline by at least 20% over the next 30 days compared to the previous 30 days, as the new approval requirement takes effect.
-
The voluntary migration of Gazans will become a more prominent topic in Israeli political discourse, with at least two major party leaders publicly endorsing or rejecting it within 90 days.
-
Police will conduct at least one more large-scale raid targeting illegal gambling or stolen property in the Tel Aviv or Ashkelon area within 90 days.
-
The investigation into the murder of Binyahu Razi will lead to formal charges against at least one additional suspect beyond the three currently detained.
-
Public criticism of Netanyahu's handling of Knesset requests will intensify, with at least two additional opposition MKs publicly condemning the PMO's response rate within 30 days.
-
The number of organized support groups for reservists' families in Be'er Sheva will grow by at least 10% over the next 30 days.
-
The 'crocodile prison' project will face increased legal scrutiny, with at least one additional court ruling or official objection within 30 days.
-
Within 90 days, Iran and Oman will sign a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping that includes a payment mechanism, as reported in talks.
-
Over the next 30 days, the US will continue to reduce its military footprint in bases near Iran, with at least one additional public report of aircraft or personnel relocation.
-
The attack on Ilan Manes will lead to a formal police investigation and at least one arrest within 90 days.
-
The real estate fraud investigation involving a former Likud MK will lead to formal charges against at least one suspect within 30 days.
-
The assassination campaign against Russian military officers will expand to include at least one new high-ranking target within 90 days.
-
The Health Ministry will issue additional public warnings about toxic plants or food safety within 30 days.
-
The prosecution will appeal the six-year sentence in the Kard case within 30 days, citing the disparity with the 15-year request.
-
Public criticism of Defense Minister Katz's handling of the Bluth dismissal will intensify, with at least two additional senior political figures issuing public statements against the move.
-
The number of seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will decrease by at least 20% over the next 90 days, as evacuation efforts continue or the strait partially reopens.
-
The Shfaram shooting case will result in an indictment with a criminal (non-nationalist) motive within 90 days, as reported.
-
The Likud Central Committee's approval of eight reserved places for Netanyahu will be challenged or annulled by a party court within 90 days.
-
Erdan will formally rule out sitting in a government that includes at least one of the ultra-Orthodox parties within 30 days.
-
The Mosli-Jerushi conflict will see at least one additional grenade or shooting incident within 30 days, breaking the current truce.
-
The New Hope party's internal conflict over the comptroller ballot scandal will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement from either Sa'ar or Haskel.
-
An indictment will be filed against the East Jerusalem stalking suspect by August 3, 2026, as expected.
-
Suhaila Ghanem will be publicly honored by at least one medical or Druze community organization within 90 days of her retirement.
-
The News 12 investigation into abuse at the Prime Minister's residence will lead to a formal inquiry or police investigation within 90 days.
-
The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
-
The Knesset's gender segregation law will face increased public and institutional opposition over the next 30 days, with at least one additional medical school dean publicly condemning it.
-
Saeed Jalili's Paydari movement will intensify public opposition to the Hormuz deal, with at least two major statements or protests within 30 days.
-
The US will increase the number of destroyers in the Mediterranean to at least four within 30 days, responding to the naval shortage warning.
-
The Together party's seat count in Maariv polls will remain below 20 over the next 30 days, failing to recover from the 15-seat crash.
-
The lawsuit filed by former residence employee Y. will lead to a formal investigation or court hearing within 90 days.
-
The soldier arrested for shooting the Palestinian child will face formal charges within 30 days, given the IDF's stated investigation.
-
The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
-
Serbia's defense exports to Israel will continue to grow over the next 90 days, driven by the Elbit Systems deal and the 2026 intelligence-sharing agreement.
-
The reserve manpower shortage in southern Lebanon will become more acute, with at least one additional brigade reporting understaffing in official channels within 90 days.
-
Yoav Segalovitz will formally announce his candidacy on the Ra'am slate within 30 days, making him the party's first Jewish candidate.
-
The detention of Avraham Hadi will be extended at least once more beyond the current four-day order, as the investigation into the News 12 brick-throwing continues.
-
Rebeca Grynspan will face increased scrutiny from permanent Security Council members over her stance on Israel-Palestine issues, potentially affecting her candidacy.
-
The number of Arabs killed in crime-related circumstances will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, given the current rate of 158 since the beginning of the year.
-
Ben Gvir's public opposition to the ceasefire draft will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement or action calling for continued military operations in Gaza.
-
The IDF will conduct at least one additional controlled demolition of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days, following the Beaufort operation.
-
The reserve duty burden will become a more prominent public issue, with at least one major protest or Knesset debate specifically addressing the gap between official limits and actual service.
-
The internal pressure on police spokesman Arie Doron will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional senior officer publicly joining the call for his dismissal.
-
At least one more prominent figure will announce joining a party or forming a new political list within 30 days, as the October 27 elections approach.
-
The IDF will announce new disciplinary measures for unauthorized base departures within 30 days, following the Givati mutiny.
-
The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
-
NATO will publicly confirm enhanced air patrols over Poland within 7 days following the Russian missile incursion.
-
Russia will launch a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine within 7 days, as warned by Zelensky and reported by Ukrainian sources.
-
Haredi enlistment will continue to rise over the next 90 days, but the rate of increase will slow as rabbinic opposition intensifies.