Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
-
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually increase but remain below 60% of pre-war levels within 90 days due to ongoing tensions.
-
Hezbollah's rhetoric of 'breaking the Israeli project' will translate into increased operational activity along the Lebanon-Israel border within 90 days, including attempted infiltrations or rocket fire.
-
Israeli public diplomacy efforts will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one new government initiative aimed at improving Israel's image among American Jews and Democrats.
-
The Haredi protest movement will continue to escalate over the next 7 days, with at least one major road blockade reported daily.
-
Hezbollah will escalate attempts to locate and target senior Israeli commanders in southern Lebanon using night operations and radio monitoring.
-
Iran will continue to deny any agreement on nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims, leading to a stalemate in negotiations within 30 days.
-
North Korea will accelerate its nuclear and naval buildup, using Iran's perceived vulnerability as justification, within 90 days.
-
The IDF will face increasing internal tension over gender integration in combat units, with more yeshiva students refusing to serve alongside female soldiers.
-
The Basic Law: Torah Study bill will not pass its final readings within 30 days due to coalition infighting and IDF opposition.
-
The closure of northern border emergency response teams will lead to at least one public protest or legal petition by affected residents within 30 days.
-
Iran's internal crackdown will intensify, with the number of executions surpassing 100 within 90 days, as the regime seeks to suppress dissent amid nuclear negotiations.
-
The number of arrests of minors for serious crimes in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as police intensify enforcement following high-profile incidents.
-
Public trust in police will decline further following the officers' sex act incident, as measured by a poll within 90 days.
-
The investigation into the kindergarten abuse case in Kiryat Gat will lead to additional charges against staff beyond the owner, including for obstruction.
-
The IAEA inspectors will not physically arrive in Iran within the next 7 days despite Vance's announcement, due to internal Iranian opposition.
-
The number of court-ordered vaccinations in Israel will increase over the next 30 days as judges set precedent for overriding parental objections without medical evidence.
-
The coalition heads meeting on June 23 will not result in an immediate decision to dissolve the Knesset, but will produce a public statement reaffirming coalition unity.
-
The US-Iran talks will produce a framework agreement within 30 days, but implementation will face delays due to internal opposition in both countries.
-
Colombia's election result will be officially certified within 7 days, with de la Espriella confirmed as winner despite Cepeda's challenge.
-
Hezbollah's domestic support in Lebanon will continue to decline, with at least one major public opinion poll showing a drop in approval among Shiite respondents within 90 days.
-
The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least 20 additional deaths reported.
-
The debate over arrest legality in public safety cases will intensify, with at least one court ruling explicitly addressing warrantless rooftop arrests within 30 days.
-
The shekel will continue to weaken against the dollar over the next 30 days, with a further decline of at least 2%.
-
Coalition internal tensions over the primaries dilemma will intensify, with at least one public threat of a split from a coalition party within 30 days.
-
IDF ground operations in southern Lebanon will continue at a reduced tempo over the next 7 days, with no major new incursions reported.
-
The US-Qatar humanitarian fund release for Iran will be delayed by at least 30 days due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
-
The number of antisemitic incidents in Italy will continue to rise over the next 30 days, following the record 963 in 2025.
-
Washington's expanded contacts with the Israeli opposition will lead to at least one public meeting between a senior US official and an opposition leader within 90 days.
-
The Meloni-Trump photo-op dispute will lead to a cooling of US-Italy bilateral engagements over the next 30 days, with at least one scheduled high-level meeting postponed or canceled.
-
The US-Iran deal will lead to increased Houthi rhetoric against Israel and the US, but not to direct military escalation from Yemen within 90 days.
-
The opposition bloc's polling lead will narrow but remain above 55 seats over the next 30 days.
-
European Union divisions on Israel sanctions will widen, with at least two more member states publicly opposing sanctions in the next 30 days.
-
The UAW divestment vote will inspire at least one other major US labor union to initiate a similar divestment process within 90 days.
-
Ben Gvir will comply with the Elections Committee order to remove the video within 7 days, avoiding further legal escalation.
-
Public debate on the adult content industry will intensify following Athena Paris's confession, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on regulation within 90 days.
-
Israeli public distrust of Trump on the Iran deal will remain above 65% over the next 30 days, as measured by subsequent polls.
-
The Gur Levi affair will see at least one additional complaint filed within 30 days.
-
Iran will enforce new Strait of Hormuz navigation rules selectively, causing at least one reported incident with a commercial vessel within 90 days.
-
Houthi attempts to infiltrate Israel by land will increase over the next 30 days, following Bar'am's warning.
-
The ultra-Orthodox protest movement against conscription will expand, with at least two more large demonstrations in the next 30 days.
-
The Competition Authority will block the Cal sale unless Cal terminates its Shufersal agreement, leading to a legal appeal within 30 days.
-
The IDF will extend mandatory service to 36 months within 30 days to address the projected 12,000-fighter deficit.
-
The High Court will rule that the Attorney General must be investigated for conflict of interest in the Sde Teiman affair within 90 days.
-
The Rehovot patricide suspect will be found unfit for detention due to mental illness within 7 days, leading to hospitalization.
-
Gold prices will remain above $4,000 per ounce for at least 60 of the next 90 days.
-
The bungee instructor case in Brazil will see at least one suspect charged with homicide, not just manslaughter, within 30 days.
-
Iran will continue limited military actions against Kurdish opposition groups despite the deal, maintaining pressure on KDPI.
-
Israeli mango prices will rise by at least 30% compared to last year's average due to the crop collapse.
-
The welfare system crisis will prompt the government to announce a plan to hire at least 500 new social workers within 30 days.
-
The Telegram pedophilia case will expand further, with additional arrests beyond the current 12 within 30 days.