Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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Iran's newly appointed IRGC commanders will initiate at least one major military exercise or operation within 90 days, signaling continuity of deterrence.
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Likud's internal tensions over reserved slots will intensify, with at least one additional public dispute or court petition filed within 30 days.
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Egypt will publicly comment on the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan alliance within 30 days, either endorsing or distancing itself from joining.
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The Democrats will face sustained internal criticism over leadership decisions, with at least one additional public resignation or high-profile complaint within 90 days.
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The Gulf states will intensify diplomatic pressure on the United States to ease the blockade, with at least two GCC members publicly calling for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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Iran's crude oil exports will remain below 200,000 barrels per day for the next 30 days, as the naval blockade continues to prevent tanker loadings at Kharg Island.
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The INS Dragon will arrive in Israel within 90 days, as announced, but will not be operational before 2027.
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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Likud will formally declare Dan Ilouz and Yuli Edelstein as defectors within 30 days if they do not resign, as threatened by MK Avichai Boaron.
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The Alberta referendum on October 19 will pass with a majority supporting the start of separation talks, but the federal government will refuse to negotiate, citing the non-binding nature of the vote.
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Hamas will hand over fewer than 1,000 Kalashnikovs to international monitors within 30 days, far short of the 60-70 thousand estimated.
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International pressure on Hamas to disarm will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one UN Security Council resolution or major statement calling for disarmament.
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The Al-Bahiri brothers will be convicted on at least one charge of assault or threatening behavior within 90 days.
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The number of police raids and closures in Rahat will increase over the next 30 days as the clan dispute continues.
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The number of reported speed-camera tickets issued by A-3 cameras will increase by at least 20% over the next 30 days following the enforcement threshold update.
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Kosovo's parliament will fail to elect a president within 30 days, triggering early elections.
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Greek authorities will increase police presence at pro-Palestinian protests over the next 90 days, aiming to prevent clashes with Israeli tourists.
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The IDF will resume targeted killings of Nukhba terrorists within 30 days, citing operational necessity.
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The Tair Rada case will see renewed public and media attention, with at least one new investigative report or official statement referencing possible child involvement within 90 days.
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The multinational force in Gaza will deploy fewer than 500 soldiers within 90 days, falling short of the expected Moroccan contribution.
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The 'Anyone but Bibi' camp's lead over Netanyahu will narrow to within 15 points in at least one major poll over the next 90 days, as the fluid 15% voter market shifts.
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Spain will begin transferring migrant minors from Ceuta to mainland Spain within 30 days, prioritizing girls as announced.
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The Afula municipality will face increased public pressure over the market's neglect, leading to at least one official statement or action plan within 90 days.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fence breach or security alert at a kibbutz near the Gaza border will be reported in Israeli media, triggering a similar barricade response.
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Yashar's electoral support will grow in polls over the next 90 days, driven by Eisenkot's security credentials and the opposition's rallying behind him.
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Israeli courts will issue at least one more ruling in the next 90 days that overrides a signed financial agreement between spouses, citing changed circumstances.
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Over the next 30 days, the IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one more Hezbollah drone attack on its forces in southern Lebanon, following the pattern of initial concealment.
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The number of workplace fatalities in Israel will exceed 60 by the end of the year, continuing the current pace.
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Public confrontations between October 7 victims' families and coalition politicians will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, with at least two more reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The US will announce a formal review or partial reversal of air defense withdrawals from Erbil within 90 days, following Kurdish protests.
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Iranian parliamentary pressure to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one formal committee vote on the bill.
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Over the next 30 days, public statements by Otzma Yehudit will continue to publicly support Religious Zionism passing the threshold, while privately preparing more attack materials against Smotrich.
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Over the next 30 days, there will be at least one more reported incident of flag desecration at a military cemetery in Israel.
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The political-security cabinet will approve a harsher military response in southern Lebanon within 30 days, despite US pressure.
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The number of Israeli civilian border-crossing incidents into Lebanon will decline over the next 30 days as the IDF increases patrols and police enforcement.
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Over the next 30 days, the Israel Police will make at least one arrest in connection with the stun grenade attacks on the Rami Levy Stock branch in Ramla or the residential tower in Park Tzameret.
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Within 90 days, the investigation into Eldar Dayan's death will yield at least one formal charge against a suspect, based on the abandoned car evidence.
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Over the next 30 days, the Houthis will claim responsibility for at least two more attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden or Red Sea.
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The opposition bloc's seat lead in polls will narrow to within 5 seats of the coalition within 90 days, as small parties fail to cross the threshold.
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The Democrats will publicly propose a specific alternative to the Haredi draft law within 90 days, likely involving phased enlistment targets.
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The second-track talks involving former UK, French, and German officials will be publicly acknowledged by at least one participating country's government within 30 days.
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Police will make at least one additional arrest in the suspected gang rape case in the north within 90 days.
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Israeli media coverage of emigration will increase, with at least two major outlets publishing feature stories on Israelis who left in 2025 within 30 days.
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The Link Up app will gain official recognition or funding from an Israeli municipality or NGO within 90 days.
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Turkey's citizenship revocation will expand to at least 7,000 total revocations within 30 days, as the crackdown on sham transactions continues.
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The Board of Peace will revise its disarmament plan to address Israel's objections within 30 days.
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The Jerusalem Faction will intensify protests against Haredi conscription, staging at least two public demonstrations in Jerusalem within 30 days.