Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
-
Turkey will retaliate diplomatically against Israel within 30 days, possibly by expelling the Israeli ambassador or downgrading relations.
-
The Western Wall Law will not pass a Knesset vote within 90 days due to coalition infighting.
-
The France-Cyprus SOFA will provoke Turkey to conduct additional naval exercises or airspace violations near Cyprus within 90 days.
-
Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.
-
The number of disabled parking permits will decrease following the State Comptroller's report, with a reduction of at least 5% within 90 days.
-
The classified phone lost in Syria will be recovered or its compromise confirmed within 30 days, leading to operational changes.
-
The IDF will continue targeted strikes in Gaza, eliminating at least one more mid-level militant commander within 7 days.
-
Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
-
Iran's nuclear posture will become more ambiguous, with increased IAEA inspections or public statements hinting at a shift, but no formal policy change within 90 days.
-
The 'Secular House' in Thailand will attract at least 100 visitors in its first three months, but Chabad will maintain higher engagement among Israeli travelers.
-
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will intensify, with Iran rejecting the US demand for free navigation and possibly conducting naval exercises in the strait.
-
The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
-
Coalition defections will continue, with at least one more local council head leaving Likud within 90 days.
-
Smotrich will face increasing public backlash from hostage families, leading to at least one more high-profile confrontation within 30 days.
-
The US-Iran talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will not take place as announced, due to conflicting statements from both sides.
-
Romania's SPYDER deal with Rafael will face no significant EU procurement hurdles and will proceed to delivery within 90 days.
-
Slovenia's embassy move to Jerusalem will face procedural delays or EU pushback over the next 30 days.
-
Public pressure on the government to address Arab crime will intensify, with at least one coalition MK publicly calling for a state of emergency in Arab communities.
-
The Shin Bet leak investigation will face political interference from coalition members within 7 days.
-
Iran's legal campaign against Israel and the US will gain symbolic traction in non-aligned forums over the next 30 days, but will not result in formal proceedings.
-
Israeli public criticism of Vice President Vance will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Israeli official publicly questioning his reliability.
-
Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with the US seeking to rally Arab states against Iran.
-
The Israel-Lebanon agreement will face continued opposition from both Hezbollah and Israeli right-wing figures, reducing its effectiveness over the next 90 days.
-
The US and Iran will avoid further direct military strikes for at least 30 days, but proxy attacks in Syria and Iraq will increase.
-
IDF will continue targeted strikes in southern Lebanon despite the framework agreement, citing preemptive self-defense.
-
The US will establish a backchannel communication with Iran within 30 days to prevent accidental clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
-
The volume of illegal weapons smuggled into Israel will not decrease significantly over the next 90 days, despite increased seizures and harsher sentences.
-
The Knesset will advance legislation regulating AI in elections within the next 30 days, following the Constitution Committee's discussion.
-
Eisenkot's National Unity party will gain at least one additional Knesset seat in polls within 90 days, as his campaign gains traction.
-
The DSA's primary victories will intensify the pro-Israel establishment's opposition to the DSA, with at least one major Jewish organization publicly launching a campaign against DSA-endorsed candidates within 30 days.
-
IRGC will conduct a limited retaliatory strike against US or Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf within 7 days.
-
Arab crime organizations will expand their influence in Netanya, leading to at least one high-profile violent incident within 90 days.
-
The number of theft cases from vehicles in Tel Aviv will continue to rise, exceeding 650 cases by late July as police struggle to curb the trend.
-
Israeli officials will increase public warnings to Iran via Persian-language channels over the next 30 days.
-
Internal Likud opposition to Netanyahu's reserved slots demand will grow, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly criticizing the move within 30 days.
-
IRGC will increase harassment of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 30 days, targeting ships using the Omani corridor.
-
Israeli officials will publicly confirm a framework agreement with Lebanon within 30 days, following the Washington talks.
-
The number of Pride-related events or counter-events in Israeli cities will increase over the next 90 days as activists push back against cancellations.
-
The Health Ministry's ban on AI tools in hospitals will face increasing criticism from medical professionals, with at least one major hospital director publicly calling for a partial reversal within 30 days.
-
Internal disagreement within the Israeli government over the duration of the security zone in Lebanon will become more public, with at least one senior minister openly contradicting Katz's 'no withdrawal' stance.
-
The number of investigation files opened against minors in 2025 will exceed 2,500 by year-end, reflecting a continued rise in youth crime.
-
Public discourse on Haredi military service will become increasingly polarized, with at least one major political figure calling for legislative action within 30 days.
-
The number of countries deploying personnel to the International Stabilization Force for Gaza will increase as the Cyprus summit approaches.
-
Internal tensions within the Democrats party will intensify, with at least one more senior figure publicly criticizing Yair Golan's leadership within 30 days.
-
The US will increase THAAD deployments in the Middle East within 90 days, leveraging the new $35 billion contract.
-
The number of killings in Arab society will continue to rise, exceeding 150 by late July, as police fail to curb the violence.
-
Police will face increased public criticism and possibly a Knesset inquiry into the failure to protect state witnesses' families.
-
The controversy over the Shin Bet memorial dismantling will lead to at least one public protest by families of fallen officers within 30 days.
-
The High Court will rule on the frozen October 7 audit reports within 90 days, likely allowing publication of at least some of the eight blocked reports.
-
The number of Bedouin home demolitions in the Negev will increase over the next 30 days as enforcement of court orders accelerates.