Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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The October 7 commemoration bill will pass into law within 90 days, but will face controversy over its scope and implementation.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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The State Comptroller's audit on prostitution law enforcement will lead to legislative proposals to reform the law within 90 days.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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The Irish ban on settlement imports will be followed by at least one other EU member state introducing similar legislation within 90 days.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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Bar Kupershtein's public appeal will lead to at least one government or NGO initiative to support released hostage reintegration within 90 days.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
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Israel-Azerbaijan relations will experience a cooling period with at least one public diplomatic incident within 90 days.
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The Histadrut-OPZZ memorandum will lead to at least one joint labor initiative or exchange program within 90 days.
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US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
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Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
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The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
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The IDF will proceed with the discharge of 10,000 reservists by end of July, but may face internal pushback from operational commanders.
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The Boston Medical Center incident will prompt at least one U.S. congressional inquiry or letter to the hospital administration within 90 days.
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Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will intensify over the next 30 days, as Russia seeks to exploit delays in Western air defense deliveries.
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The NATO summit in Istanbul will produce a commitment to increase defense spending targets but will not agree on a concrete timeline for Ukraine's membership.
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Iris Haim's public anguish will galvanize calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, with new momentum over the next 90 days.
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Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
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Iran's internal power struggle will delay finalization of the US-Iran deal beyond 90 days.
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IRGC will conduct a limited missile or drone test launch within 30 days, citing 'divine revenge' rhetoric.
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The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's meeting with Trump will not produce a major shift in US policy toward Israel's military operations within 90 days.
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Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will escalate into a limited cross-border attack within 30 days, but will not trigger a full war.
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Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
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European governments will announce new heatwave early warning systems or infrastructure investments within 90 days, following the June 2026 deaths.
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The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.
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The number of self-immolations in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet will increase over the next 90 days following Lobsang Rangzen's act.
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The IDF will not implement the proposed cuts to Home Front Command soldiers in Judea and Samaria settlements within 30 days, due to internal opposition from regional leaders and security concerns.
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Public criticism of Netanyahu over his October 7 joke will persist, but will not trigger a coalition crisis within 90 days.
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The Knesset will hold a new vote for state comptroller within 30 days, but the coalition will face internal dissent over candidate selection.
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The legal campaign to oust journalist Roni Koven will escalate into a formal complaint to the Second Authority for Television and Radio within 90 days.
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The IDF's disciplinary action against the soldiers who bound a Palestinian suspect will lead to a formal investigation or court-martial within 30 days, amid public pressure.
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Public and political pressure on the justice system will increase following the lenient sentence for Shimon Adiel Hadari, leading to a Knesset committee discussion on sentencing guidelines for sex crimes within 90 days.
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The Zvika Cohen controversy will lead to a Knesset committee hearing on autism benefits within 30 days.
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The trapped Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon will either be killed or captured within 30 days, reducing the tunnel threat.
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The number of Haredi national service participants will increase by at least 10% within 90 days, driven by official praise and security track expansion.
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The defense budget dispute between the Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry will intensify, with public statements from both sides but no resolution within 30 days.
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The US review of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia will lead to a formal reduction in joint exercises or arms sales within 90 days.
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Iran's media crackdown ahead of Khamenei's funeral will intensify, with at least one prominent journalist or editor arrested within 30 days.
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The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.