Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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The Iran-Qatar dispute over the three pilots will remain unresolved, with no public release or repatriation of the pilots within 90 days.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list where at least one MK who scored below 90% compatibility with Likud in the Walla questionnaire will be placed in a non-realistic slot, indicating internal friction.
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The Ministry of Education will face at least one public petition or legal challenge against the new non-unionized teacher track within 90 days.
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Tali Gottlieb will not formally join Otzma Yehudit within 30 days, despite reported talks.
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Israeli media coverage of the Yahalomi sisters' return will shift from celebration to scrutiny of privacy violations within 30 days.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the police officers who strip-searched Itamar Greenberg within 30 days.
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Reports of Iranian oil exports via Chinese entities like Hengli Group will face increased scrutiny in Western media over the next 90 days, with at least three new investigative pieces or official sanctions actions targeting such trade.
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The Knesset will not cancel the budget transfers approved during the election recess within 30 days, as the legal adviser's opposition will hold.
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Yosef Haddad's 'Israel Amitza' party will either merge with Ofer Winter's faction or announce a formal alliance within 30 days, as both seek to consolidate right-wing support.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list that includes Tally Gotliv in a top-10 slot, despite Netanyahu's concerns about seat loss.
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Avraham Burg's entry into the Knesset race will increase media coverage of left-wing opposition parties by at least 20% over the next 30 days.
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Gulf states will increase public criticism of the US military presence over the next 30 days, with at least two official statements or media reports questioning basing agreements.
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The Likud party will face an internal disciplinary review or public call for Kleiner's resignation over his admission about 'creative methods' in list slots.
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IDF strikes on Hezbollah command infrastructure in southern Lebanon will continue at a rate of at least one per week over the next 30 days.
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Hezbollah will intensify public rhetoric against the Lebanese government's disarmament efforts over the next 30 days, with at least two major speeches or statements from Naim Qassem or other senior officials.
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Israeli media coverage of 'threat stories' will decline by at least 30% from the August 9-11 peak, as public scrutiny of fake news increases.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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The Forward will name a new editor-in-chief within 90 days.
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The Saskatoon egg-throwing case will result in a plea deal or a trial date within 30 days, given the minor nature of the charges.
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The investigation into the Lod stabbing will lead to an arrest within 90 days, given the severity of the injury.
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The anti-Netanyahu opposition will fail to present a unified candidate list for the October 27 elections, with at least two separate slates remaining.
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The US Senate bill to recognize Judaism as an ethnic group will face formal opposition from Jewish organizations within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The prosecution's decision to remove Lin from the Mauda indictment will face a public appeal or additional media scrutiny over the next 30 days.
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The investigation into Eldar Dayan's murder will produce at least one new formal step—such as an additional arrest, an indictment, or a charge against Berman or Peretz—within 90 days.
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The police officer fired for sexual relations with a released woman will face additional legal proceedings or a public appeal within 30 days.
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The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue at least one additional ruling on election propaganda involving children or public figures within the next 30 days, beyond the Netanyahu video order.
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The grenade attack network in Bat Yam will be linked to at least one additional attack or arrest within 90 days.
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Kushner's regional initiative will produce at least one new bilateral agreement or public framework involving Israel, Egypt, or Gulf states within 90 days.
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Japan will issue a formal diplomatic protest to Russia over the Kuril visit and escalate rhetoric in the coming 30 days.
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Chaim Rotter's release to house arrest will face a public challenge or a reported violation within 30 days, given the court's 'high danger' finding.
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Russia and North Korea will announce or conduct a joint military exercise within 90 days, building on their new agreement.
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Nazareth's 77-day streak without murder will be broken within 90 days, with at least one new killing reported in the city.
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The Attorney General's opposition to Mahash appointments will lead to a public clash with the government, with at least one formal legal challenge or public statement from either side within 30 days.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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Netanyahu's personal promises to Likud MKs will face public challenge or leak within 30 days, as internal factions dispute the allocations.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The IDF will maintain control of the Ali Tahar ridge for at least 90 days, with no reported Hezbollah re-capture.
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The Tiberias 'kosher sidewalk' will face a legal challenge or public protest within 30 days.
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The appeal against Ohad Goldberg's promotion will result in a formal review or decision by the Police Internal Investigations Department within 90 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.
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The Rambam Hospital controversy will lead to at least one official inquiry or report on treatment of soldiers or Arab staff within 90 days, beyond the current IDF examination.
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The Central Elections Committee will present a plan to the High Court by August 17 that includes at least 290 alternative accessible polling stations, but will face further court challenges over adequacy.
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The United States will conduct at least one more interdiction of a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Iran within 30 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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The number of complex X-ray misreadings reported in Israeli media will increase over the next 30 days, as the study's findings prompt further investigation and public discussion.