Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
712 forecasts
-
The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
-
Iran will not release the Foremans within 90 days, but the hunger strike will increase international pressure on Tehran.
-
The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
-
The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
-
The Histadrut-OPZZ memorandum will lead to at least one joint labor initiative or exchange program within 90 days.
-
US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
-
Israel-Azerbaijan relations will experience a cooling period with at least one public diplomatic incident within 90 days.
-
Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
-
The IDF will proceed with the discharge of 10,000 reservists by end of July, but may face internal pushback from operational commanders.
-
The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
-
The NATO summit in Istanbul will produce a commitment to increase defense spending targets but will not agree on a concrete timeline for Ukraine's membership.
-
The Boston Medical Center incident will prompt at least one U.S. congressional inquiry or letter to the hospital administration within 90 days.
-
Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will intensify over the next 30 days, as Russia seeks to exploit delays in Western air defense deliveries.
-
Iris Haim's public anguish will galvanize calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, with new momentum over the next 90 days.
-
Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
-
Iran's internal power struggle will delay finalization of the US-Iran deal beyond 90 days.
-
IRGC will conduct a limited missile or drone test launch within 30 days, citing 'divine revenge' rhetoric.
-
Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
-
European governments will announce new heatwave early warning systems or infrastructure investments within 90 days, following the June 2026 deaths.
-
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump will not produce a major shift in US policy toward Israel's military operations within 90 days.
-
The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
-
Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will escalate into a limited cross-border attack within 30 days, but will not trigger a full war.
-
The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.
-
The number of self-immolations in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet will increase over the next 90 days following Lobsang Rangzen's act.
-
The IDF will not implement the proposed cuts to Home Front Command soldiers in Judea and Samaria settlements within 30 days, due to internal opposition from regional leaders and security concerns.
-
Public criticism of Netanyahu over his October 7 joke will persist, but will not trigger a coalition crisis within 90 days.
-
The Knesset will hold a new vote for state comptroller within 30 days, but the coalition will face internal dissent over candidate selection.
-
The Zvika Cohen controversy will lead to a Knesset committee hearing on autism benefits within 30 days.
-
The IDF's disciplinary action against the soldiers who bound a Palestinian suspect will lead to a formal investigation or court-martial within 30 days, amid public pressure.
-
Public and political pressure on the justice system will increase following the lenient sentence for Shimon Adiel Hadari, leading to a Knesset committee discussion on sentencing guidelines for sex crimes within 90 days.
-
The legal campaign to oust journalist Roni Koven will escalate into a formal complaint to the Second Authority for Television and Radio within 90 days.
-
The trapped Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon will either be killed or captured within 30 days, reducing the tunnel threat.
-
Iran's media crackdown ahead of Khamenei's funeral will intensify, with at least one prominent journalist or editor arrested within 30 days.
-
The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.
-
The defense budget dispute between the Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry will intensify, with public statements from both sides but no resolution within 30 days.
-
The US review of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia will lead to a formal reduction in joint exercises or arms sales within 90 days.
-
The Western Wall Law will not pass a Knesset vote within 90 days due to coalition infighting.
-
The France-Cyprus SOFA will provoke Turkey to conduct additional naval exercises or airspace violations near Cyprus within 90 days.
-
Turkey will retaliate diplomatically against Israel within 30 days, possibly by expelling the Israeli ambassador or downgrading relations.
-
The number of disabled parking permits will decrease following the State Comptroller's report, with a reduction of at least 5% within 90 days.
-
The IDF will continue targeted strikes in Gaza, eliminating at least one more mid-level militant commander within 7 days.
-
The classified phone lost in Syria will be recovered or its compromise confirmed within 30 days, leading to operational changes.
-
Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
-
The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
-
Iran's nuclear posture will become more ambiguous, with increased IAEA inspections or public statements hinting at a shift, but no formal policy change within 90 days.
-
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will intensify, with Iran rejecting the US demand for free navigation and possibly conducting naval exercises in the strait.
-
Smotrich will face increasing public backlash from hostage families, leading to at least one more high-profile confrontation within 30 days.
-
The US-Iran talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will not take place as announced, due to conflicting statements from both sides.
-
Coalition defections will continue, with at least one more local council head leaving Likud within 90 days.
-
Romania's SPYDER deal with Rafael will face no significant EU procurement hurdles and will proceed to delivery within 90 days.