Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
456 forecasts
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The closure of Bar Video will accelerate the decline of LGBTQ+ nightlife in Jerusalem, with no new dedicated venue opening within 90 days.
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The northern protest movement will expand to other excluded communities, pressuring the government to revise its aid criteria within 90 days.
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The Turkey-Saudi railway project will not be operational within 365 days due to security and financing hurdles.
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The trend of high-priced tourist traps in Rome will continue to attract media attention and consumer backlash over the next 90 days.
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The US will not finalize a purchase of the Chagos Islands within 90 days, given the complexity of negotiations with Mauritius.
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The number of reported settler attacks on Palestinian agricultural lands will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year, following the camel release incident.