Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1093 forecasts
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The share of National-Religious men in IDF reserve duty will continue to grow relative to their population share over the next 90 days, as secular participation declines further.
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AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will decline measurably over the next 90 days, as at least one major Democratic candidate will explicitly refuse AIPAC endorsement or funding.
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Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.
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Russia will conduct at least one additional strike in Ukraine targeting a location where rescue or medical personnel are present within the next 30 days.
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The Ra'am party's internal cohesion will be tested over the next 30 days, as the primaries may expose factional tensions that spill into public criticism of Abbas's leadership.
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The controversy over Paramount's accusation of antisemitism against Mark Ruffalo will be referenced in at least one major US entertainment industry publication within 30 days.
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The PanStar Acro's Arctic voyage will be followed by at least one additional commercial transit by a South Korean vessel within 90 days, despite Western concerns.
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The collapse of the Palestine Action trial will lead to at least one new protest or direct action by the group in the UK within 30 days.
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Gideon Sa'ar will face increased criticism from within the coalition for his remarks on the 2021 government, potentially leading to a public rebuke from a coalition partner within 90 days.
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Piracy attacks off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden will continue at a rate of at least one per month over the next 90 days, exceeding the 2025 baseline.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on homelessness within the next 90 days, driven by the gap between official counts and NGO-reported numbers.
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The US will not allow Mahmoud Abbas to address the UN General Assembly next month, despite his appeal to Erdogan.
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The Ramla stabbing and Kiryat Gat shooting will prompt at least one Knesset member to submit a parliamentary question or call for a committee hearing on domestic violence and public security within 30 days.
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The 100-gambler raid in Haifa will be followed by at least one additional police operation targeting illegal gambling in the same city within 90 days.
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Public pressure on the government over the handling of missing persons cases like Haymanot Kasau will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee hearing or parliamentary question specifically referencing the case.
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The blood feud in Lod will see at least one additional violent incident, such as an attempted revenge attack or a police raid, within the next 30 days.
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The IDF will increase the tempo of airstrikes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as the political echelon signals a tougher line ahead of elections.
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Japan will publicly distance itself from the ICC blacklisting decision over the next 30 days, issuing a formal statement of concern or abstaining from a related vote.
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Gilad Erdan's new party Achdut will fail to cross the electoral threshold in at least one major poll within 90 days.
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Coalition negotiations will intensify, with at least one new right-wing merger or alliance announced before the September 7 deadline for submitting lists.
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Hamas will escalate its use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as a response to perceived loss of control.
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The gap between the opposition and coalition blocs will narrow in the next major poll, as Likud consolidates its base and Yashar's growth plateaus.
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Israeli banks will partially reduce but not fully sever correspondent banking ties with Palestinian Authority banks over the next 90 days, as the dilemma between legal risk and economic collapse remains unresolved.
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The debate over community reconciliation processes in criminal sentencing will gain public attention, with at least one op-ed or news analysis piece in a major Israeli outlet discussing the Tsegai case's implications within 30 days.
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Internal Likud tensions over reserved spots for pushed-back MKs will escalate, with at least one MK publicly threatening to leave the party or vote against coalition discipline within 30 days.
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The IRGC will conduct at least one publicly reported test of a new ballistic missile or drone system within 90 days, as a show of force in response to Trump's economic threats.
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The new 'Third Camp on the Right' merger will fail to cross the electoral threshold in the next major public opinion poll, polling below 3.25% of the vote.
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The IDF will publicly restrict or ban the use of Chinese-made drones on front lines within 90 days, following the leakage warnings.
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Diplomatic pressure on Israel over the World Central Kitchen killings will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one more country summoning Israel's ambassador or issuing a formal protest.
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The US naval blockade of Iran will lead to at least one publicly reported incident of Iranian harassment or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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The crisis of trust in Arab society's leadership will deepen, as indicated by a follow-up poll showing a further decline in trust among younger Arab Israelis.
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Bennett's Yashar party will gain at least 2 seats in the next major public opinion poll, as his security-focused messaging and hardline stance on Haredi conscription resonate with right-wing voters.
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The police will not file additional charges against Yuval Goldiak within 30 days, given the early stage of the investigation and the complexity of sex offense cases.
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Iranian-backed proxy groups will conduct at least one publicly reported attack on a US military asset in Europe within 30 days.
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Over the next 90 days, the Ukrainian government will not hold wartime elections, but will announce a formal proposal for a legal framework to enable them, following Fedorov's call.
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The indictment against Abdullah Gargawi will be upgraded to include charges of attempted murder or terrorism offenses within 90 days.
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The Mousawa Center's complaint over the Umm al-Fahm wedding raid will lead to a formal police investigation or disciplinary review within 30 days.
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The KKL investigation will prompt at least one official inquiry or public statement from KKL leadership within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will not issue a final ruling on the Death Penalty for Terrorists Law petition within 30 days.
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The Jerusalem Appeals Tribunal will issue a final ruling on Telma Kasau's deportation within 30 days, either granting her status or ordering her removal.
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Hezbollah's monthly salary payments to activists will decline in real value or frequency over the next 90 days, as Iranian funding prioritizes weapons rebuilding.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the Afula resident for the bus assault within 30 days, given the existing indictment.
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Over the next 30 days, the US-Hamas channel will produce at least one public statement from either side confirming progress on the 15-point roadmap, but no final agreement on Hamas disarmament will be announced.
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The Knesset will hold a public hearing on the failure to protect northern educational institutions within 30 days.
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will maintain a lead of at least 15 seats over the coalition in public polls through October, as Likud's internal turmoil and the Yashar party's rise persist.
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Israeli coalition tensions over the Gaza roadmap will intensify, with at least one public statement from a coalition minister criticizing the US-Hamas channel or the plan's terms.
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Netanyahu's request for eight reserved slots will be partially granted, with at least four slots allocated by the party's central committee within 90 days.
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The cancellation of Brazilian chicken import approval will lead to a measurable increase in domestic chicken prices in Israel over the next 30 days.
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The police will appeal the release of Yossi Mosli within 30 days, leading to a new court hearing.