Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
783 forecasts
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At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
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The Houthis will attempt to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb within 90 days, but will not fully close the strait.
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Bnei Brak's gender-segregated street policy will face a legal challenge at the High Court of Justice within 90 days.
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The IDF will announce measures to address the transport vehicle shortage in Gaza reserve brigades within 30 days, following public criticism.
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The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
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The controversy over PEN America's stance on cultural boycotts will lead to at least one more prominent resignation or public protest from a board member within 90 days.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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The IDF will increase enforcement along the Syrian border to prevent civilian crossings, following the detention of activists and the 'Pioneers of Bashan' incident.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
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Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
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Houthi attacks on Saudi targets will continue, with at least one more missile or drone strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility within 30 days.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
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Mortgage volumes will remain above 10 billion shekels per month for at least two of the next three months, sustaining the June surge.
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Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro will publicly reiterate his pledge to move the embassy to Jerusalem if elected, but no concrete diplomatic steps will be taken before the 2026 election.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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Rafael's factory in India will begin production of Iron Dome interceptors within 90 days, as a strategic move to diversify supply chains.
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The IDF will continue airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons storage sites in southern Lebanon over the next 30 days, as diplomatic efforts to implement the June 26 withdrawal agreement stall.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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Qatar's veto of the Volkswagen-Rafael deal will not be overturned, and Rafael will advance its India production line as an alternative.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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The IDF will continue to reduce reserve soldier call-ups, with numbers dropping below 50,000 within 30 days, as financial constraints persist.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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IDF operations in Gaza will continue at current tempo, with at least one more targeted killing of a mid-level militant commander within 30 days.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The low indictment rate for settler violence (6.6%) will be cited by human rights groups in international forums to push for sanctions or diplomatic measures against Israeli authorities.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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US-Iran military exchanges will continue with at least one more round of strikes within 7 days.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.