Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
149 forecasts
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The call by bereaved mother Galia Hoshin to boycott the 'national memorial ceremony' will be echoed by at least one additional bereaved family forum within 7 days.
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The Brooklyn rabbi attack will be reclassified as a hate crime by NYPD within 30 days, following public pressure and the same-day Crown Heights incident. Reference class: NYC hate crime reclassifications (2015-2025); base rate ~35% for reclassification within 30 days of initial non-hate classification. Confidence adjusted up due to the suspect's prior arrests and the concurrent antisemitic incident.
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The 2.5 to 3 million Israelis with post-traumatic symptoms will not see a significant increase in publicly funded mental health services within 30 days, despite Gal Gadot's private donation.
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At least one additional Latin American government will adopt the term 'genocide' to describe Israeli actions in Gaza within 30 days, following the Broad Front's lead in Uruguay.
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The public confrontation between Shelly Mesch Yogev and Aharon Haliva will lead to at least one additional bereaved family publicly demanding a personal meeting with a former senior IDF officer within 30 days.
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The public campaign by Barak Bar's parents for mandatory cognitive testing of elderly drivers will gain at least one Knesset sponsor within 30 days.
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The number of reported incidents involving heavy weapons (LAW missiles, RPGs, anti-tank missiles) in criminal contexts in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the recent attacks in Jaljulia, Kafr Qasim, and Sajur indicate a pattern.
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Public debate over the NAZA documentary will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on revoking the filmmakers' citizenship within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions on citizenship revocation (2015-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a minister's announcement. Confidence adjusted up due to Culture Minister Zohar's explicit threat.
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The controversy over the Givat Tidhar outpost will not lead to a formal evacuation order within 30 days, as the government is unlikely to enforce removals ahead of elections.
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The controversy surrounding the film 'BDA' will not lead to a formal IDF investigation or change in targeting protocols within 30 days, as the military rejects the claims. Reference class: IDF responses to critical soldier testimonies (2014-2025); base rate ~15% for a formal investigation within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the IDF's categorical rejection.
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The Phuket Chabad House will not host any large-scale public Israeli holiday events for the remainder of the High Holy Days, as security concerns and local protest momentum persist.
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The controversy surrounding teacher Miriam Abu Bakr at Shirat Yam school will not lead to a formal Ministry of Education investigation or policy change within 30 days, as the issue remains localized.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to address the PISA decline within 30 days, as the election campaign shifts focus away from long-term reform.
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The number of Haredi deserters arrested at border crossings will increase over the next 30 days as Rosh Hashanah approaches, with at least 100 total arrests reported by mid-October.
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Moumen Al-Natour will not receive a formal response from the Trump administration within 30 days regarding his request for a meeting.
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The number of reported shootings in Arab communities in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the protection money racket escalates.
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The number of public protests in Jerusalem over Shabbat business closures will increase over the next 30 days, as secular and liberal groups mobilize in response to the Cafe in the Alley incident. Reference class: Jerusalem Shabbat protests (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a protest wave within 30 days of a high-profile closure. Confidence adjusted up due to the coffee cart action and Schwartz's explicit call to action.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will exceed 300 by the end of September 2026, as the current pace of 291 since January continues without a new national safety plan.
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The Education Ministry will modify the nurse-for-aide pilot program before the August 30 deadline to avoid a High Court petition.
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The IDF will issue a public directive on handling stray dogs at bases within 30 days, following the Camp Noam euthanasia controversy.
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The share of Israelis who fear identifying themselves abroad will increase by at least 3 percentage points in the next poll within 30 days.
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Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.
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Public transportation on Shabbat will remain a flashpoint, with at least one additional protest or confrontation reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The controversy over Paramount's accusation of antisemitism against Mark Ruffalo will be referenced in at least one major US entertainment industry publication within 30 days.
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The collapse of the Palestine Action trial will lead to at least one new protest or direct action by the group in the UK within 30 days.
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The blood feud in Lod will see at least one additional violent incident, such as an attempted revenge attack or a police raid, within the next 30 days.
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The Jerusalem Appeals Tribunal will issue a final ruling on Telma Kasau's deportation within 30 days, either granting her status or ordering her removal.
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Israeli media coverage of the Yahalomi sisters' return will shift from celebration to scrutiny of privacy violations within 30 days.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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The number of police raids and closures in Rahat will increase over the next 30 days as the clan dispute continues.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fence breach or security alert at a kibbutz near the Gaza border will be reported in Israeli media, triggering a similar barricade response.
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Israeli media coverage of emigration will increase, with at least two major outlets publishing feature stories on Israelis who left in 2025 within 30 days.
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The number of organized support groups for reservists' families in Be'er Sheva will grow by at least 10% over the next 30 days.
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The Health Ministry will issue additional public warnings about toxic plants or food safety within 30 days.
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The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
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The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
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The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
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At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.