Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
67 forecasts
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
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The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
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Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
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The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a pilot program to address Arab-Jewish workplace tensions in hospitals within 30 days, following the Abraham Initiatives study.
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The Israel Fire and Rescue Services will issue a public advisory or operational update within 7 days regarding increased fire risk due to continued hot and dry weather, following the two large fires on July 18.
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Magen David Adom will report an increase in drowning-related calls along the Mediterranean coast over the next 30 days, compared to the same period last year, following three drownings on a single Saturday.
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Police will announce a formal task force or dedicated investigative unit for domestic violence in Bat Yam within 30 days, following the stabbing of a pregnant woman and the 82% femicide increase.
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The National Insurance Institute will face increased public scrutiny or a Knesset committee hearing regarding caregiver background checks within 30 days.
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Ben-Gurion University will issue a public statement clarifying its policy on campus speech within 30 days, in response to the Parhi incident.
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At least one additional suspect will be arrested in connection with the Japanika grenade attacks within 90 days.
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At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
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Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
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Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
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The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
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Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
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The Zvika Cohen controversy will lead to a Knesset committee hearing on autism benefits within 30 days.
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The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.
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Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
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The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
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The number of theft cases from vehicles in Tel Aviv will continue to rise, exceeding 650 cases by late July as police struggle to curb the trend.
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The Health Ministry's ban on AI tools in hospitals will face increasing criticism from medical professionals, with at least one major hospital director publicly calling for a partial reversal within 30 days.
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Public discourse on Haredi military service will become increasingly polarized, with at least one major political figure calling for legislative action within 30 days.
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The number of killings in Arab society will continue to rise, exceeding 150 by late July, as police fail to curb the violence.
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The number of Bedouin home demolitions in the Negev will increase over the next 30 days as enforcement of court orders accelerates.
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The Haredi protest movement will continue to escalate over the next 7 days, with at least one major road blockade reported daily.