Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
119 forecasts
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The number of families returning to Kibbutz Kfar Aza will not exceed 80 within 90 days, given the slow pace of return and the deep trauma and lack of trust among residents.
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The controversy surrounding teacher Miriam Abu Bakr at Shirat Yam school will not lead to a formal Ministry of Education investigation or policy change within 30 days, as the issue remains localized.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to address the PISA decline within 30 days, as the election campaign shifts focus away from long-term reform.
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The number of Haredi deserters arrested at border crossings will increase over the next 30 days as Rosh Hashanah approaches, with at least 100 total arrests reported by mid-October.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to combat bullying in schools within 90 days, despite Herzog's declaration of a state of emergency.
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The Syrian government will not adopt a new constitution guaranteeing equality for religious minorities within 90 days, as internal Islamist factions resist. Reference class: Syrian transitional constitutional processes (2011-2025); base rate ~15% for adoption within 90 days of a minister's call. Confidence adjusted up due to Kabawat's minority position and the segregation controversy.
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Public debate over the treatment of Arab students in Israeli universities will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee discussion or a minister's statement responding to the Adalah report. Reference class: Israeli Knesset responses to civil society reports on minority rights (2015-2025); base rate ~55% for a formal response within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the report's specific allegation of 'apartheid' and the upcoming election context.
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The Ministry of Health will not announce a new method for detecting or neutralizing the brain-eating amoeba in the Sea of Galilee within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli environmental health policy changes after public health warnings (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new method within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ministry's explicit admission of no tools.
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Moumen Al-Natour will not receive a formal response from the Trump administration within 30 days regarding his request for a meeting.
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The number of reported shootings in Arab communities in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the protection money racket escalates.
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The number of public protests in Jerusalem over Shabbat business closures will increase over the next 30 days, as secular and liberal groups mobilize in response to the Cafe in the Alley incident. Reference class: Jerusalem Shabbat protests (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a protest wave within 30 days of a high-profile closure. Confidence adjusted up due to the coffee cart action and Schwartz's explicit call to action.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The number of anti-Semitic incidents in Spain will continue to rise over the next 90 days, driven by the ongoing political fallout from the Ceuta migration crisis.
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The tension between Haredi enlistment and rabbinical opposition will intensify over the next 90 days, as the 30% enlistment increase is met with more public orders to leave the IDF. Reference class: Haredi draft crises in Israel (2017-2024); base rate ~60% for escalation after an enlistment surge. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature of the Salim order.
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Violence against public transportation drivers will continue to be reported at a rate of at least 40 cases per month over the next 30 days, as the underlying safety conditions remain unaddressed.
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The teacher shortage in Israel will not be significantly reduced within 90 days, as no new major recruitment or salary reform is announced.
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The share of Arab Israeli doctors will remain stable or increase slightly over the next 90 days, as no new medical schools are announced to address the shortage.
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Nepal will accept international aid for flood relief within 90 days, as the death toll and missing persons numbers strain domestic capacity.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will exceed 300 by the end of September 2026, as the current pace of 291 since January continues without a new national safety plan.
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The state will not establish a dedicated psychological rehabilitation fund for released hostages within 90 days, maintaining reliance on crowdfunding.
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The PIMS hospital fire in Islamabad will trigger an official inquiry report that identifies specific safety violations within 90 days.
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The number of reported violent incidents involving knives carried by minors will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year within 90 days.
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The Education Ministry will modify the nurse-for-aide pilot program before the August 30 deadline to avoid a High Court petition.
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The IDF will issue a public directive on handling stray dogs at bases within 30 days, following the Camp Noam euthanasia controversy.
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The share of Israeli parents reporting academic harm to their children will remain above 85% in any new survey within 30 days, as the school year begins and teacher shortages persist.
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The share of Israelis who fear identifying themselves abroad will increase by at least 3 percentage points in the next poll within 30 days.
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Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.
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The share of National-Religious men in IDF reserve duty will continue to grow relative to their population share over the next 90 days, as secular participation declines further.
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Public transportation on Shabbat will remain a flashpoint, with at least one additional protest or confrontation reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The controversy over Paramount's accusation of antisemitism against Mark Ruffalo will be referenced in at least one major US entertainment industry publication within 30 days.
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The collapse of the Palestine Action trial will lead to at least one new protest or direct action by the group in the UK within 30 days.
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The 100-gambler raid in Haifa will be followed by at least one additional police operation targeting illegal gambling in the same city within 90 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on homelessness within the next 90 days, driven by the gap between official counts and NGO-reported numbers.
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The blood feud in Lod will see at least one additional violent incident, such as an attempted revenge attack or a police raid, within the next 30 days.
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Public pressure on the government over the handling of missing persons cases like Haymanot Kasau will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee hearing or parliamentary question specifically referencing the case.
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The crisis of trust in Arab society's leadership will deepen, as indicated by a follow-up poll showing a further decline in trust among younger Arab Israelis.
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The Jerusalem Appeals Tribunal will issue a final ruling on Telma Kasau's deportation within 30 days, either granting her status or ordering her removal.
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The Ministry of Education will face at least one public petition or legal challenge against the new non-unionized teacher track within 90 days.
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Israeli media coverage of the Yahalomi sisters' return will shift from celebration to scrutiny of privacy violations within 30 days.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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The Forward will name a new editor-in-chief within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The US Senate bill to recognize Judaism as an ethnic group will face formal opposition from Jewish organizations within 90 days.
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The grenade attack network in Bat Yam will be linked to at least one additional attack or arrest within 90 days.
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Nazareth's 77-day streak without murder will be broken within 90 days, with at least one new killing reported in the city.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The Tiberias 'kosher sidewalk' will face a legal challenge or public protest within 30 days.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.