Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
108 forecasts
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Public debate over trust in Arab healthcare professionals will intensify, with at least one additional public figure or organization issuing a statement on the issue within 30 days.
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At least one additional US public school district will face a similar CAIR-style objection over a trip to a Jewish camp with Israel connections within 90 days.
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The number of Jewish doctors immigrating to Israel from Britain will exceed 100 in the next 30 days, continuing the trend seen at the MedEX fair.
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The number of reported femicides in Israel will increase by at least 20% in the 90 days following the murder of Yana Zikova, compared to the same period in the previous year.
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At least one additional named candidate or party billboard will be reported vandalized or defaced before election day, extending the Golan billboard incident.
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The Israeli government will not establish a specialized enforcement unit to combat child marriage, as recommended by the Yavne'el report, within 90 days.
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The French government will announce at least one new security measure specifically targeting antisemitic incitement online within 30 days.
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At least one additional named Israeli or international press-freedom body will publish a formal statement or report naming violence against journalists in the West Bank within 90 days.
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The Israel Antiquities Authority will not take any publicly announced practical steps to protect the Mamilla cemetery within 30 days, maintaining its current stance of passive monitoring.
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The frequency of settler attacks on West Bank agriculture will not decrease over the next 90 days, with at least one additional weekly report showing losses exceeding $500,000.
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The shooting crime rate in Ba'ana will not decrease within 30 days, with at least one additional shooting incident reported in the town.
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At least one European government will publicly condemn the Torcida chants and launch an official investigation into the incident within 90 days.
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At least one more Israeli drama series will be announced or renewed for a new season within 30 days, sustaining the current pace of new content.
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At least one more violent incident involving organized crime figures will be publicly reported in Umm al-Fahm within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the past 12 hours.
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The Water Authority will publish at least one further quantified warning about northern water sources within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the current alert rather than a single statement.
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The Israeli Education Ministry will issue at least one written directive or public statement restricting school trips to northern Israel within 30 days, following the Ramim Ridge dud explosion that killed one student and wounded 24.
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Our Fight's 'Some people are Zionist! Get over it!' campaign will produce at least one additional publicly reported confrontation or removal at a UK institutional event within 30 days, sustaining the pattern set by Birbeck's ejection from the Green Party conference.
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The Haifa soup kitchen commemorating Yaakov Cohen will begin serving meals to the public within 30 days.
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The Yehud-Monoson municipality and the developers of the Avia Hotel complex will remain without a submitted new plan to the District Planning and Building Committee over the next 30 days, as neither side has moved from its stated position.
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The number of reported youth-related violent crimes in Poland will increase by at least 25% compared to the previous 30-day period, following the two school stabbings.
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The October 7 Memory Authority, due to take effect in January, will face at least one legal challenge from a family or civil rights group regarding its data-collection protocols within 90 days of its establishment.
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The number of families petitioning the state for access to Oct. 7 documentation will increase by at least 50% within 30 days, following the broadcast of Amit Mann's recordings.
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The number of reported stone attacks in the Sebastia area will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 30-day period, as the attack on a shepherd escalates a pattern of violence. Reference class: stone attacks in Samaria (2023-2026); base rate ~45% for a 50% increase after a moderately injured victim. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific targeting of a shepherd near a farm, a tactic that may embolden further attacks.
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The proportion of British Jews feeling very emotionally attached to Israel will remain above 45% in any new JPR survey published within 30 days.
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The Brooklyn teacher Damian Naveh will be formally disciplined (suspended or fired) by the NYC Department of Education within 30 days, as political pressure mounts. Reference class: NYC teacher discipline cases for political speech (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for suspension/firing within 30 days of a public scandal. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific call for Sinwar, a designated terrorist leader, and the involvement of a former assemblyman.
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The hit-and-run investigation on Rashba Street will result in the driver being identified and charged within 30 days.
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Public criticism of government handling of hostage families will intensify over the next 30 days, as the anniversary amplifies survivor testimony.
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The number of Christian families leaving Taybeh will increase by more than 5 families within 90 days, as the post-October 7 exodus accelerates. Reference class: Christian emigration from West Bank villages (2020-2025); base rate ~30% for >5 families in 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported 15 families already leaving and the described shift in spiritual perception.
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The film 'Naz'a' will be officially banned or its screenings will be disrupted by protests at at least two more international venues within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli films contested at international festivals (2014-2025); base rate ~60% for multiple disruptions. Confidence adjusted up due to the strong emotional response to Taasa's intervention and the film's Venice award.
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The public controversy over the Merikerman Abascal eviction in Spain will lead to at least one more major housing protest in Madrid within 30 days. Reference class: Spanish housing protests following high-profile evictions (2018-2025); base rate ~60% for a follow-up protest within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the government's Merikerman Decree announcement, which may galvanize both supporters and opponents.
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The number of violent attacks involving minors or young adults (ages 14-18) reported in Israeli media will increase by at least 20% in the next 30 days compared to the previous 30 days.
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The number of protection money cases opened in the Rotem district will increase by at least 10% in the next 90 days, following the undercover operation and the 32% increase reported in the past year.
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The public controversy over the removal of Palestinian caregivers from nursing homes will lead to at least one Knesset committee discussion on the essential worker exemption within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions triggered by health-sector controversies (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a committee discussion within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the involvement of multiple stakeholders (Defense Ministry, Health Ministry, nursing home operators) and media attention.
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The Welfare Ministry will announce a plan to increase out-of-home shelter capacity by at least 10% within 90 days, following the report on homelessness. Reference class: Welfare Ministry capacity expansion announcements following media reports (2018-2025); base rate ~60% for an announcement within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the upcoming winter season and the large gap between homeless population (4,500) and available beds (870).
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The number of foreign nationals stranded in conflict zones in Ethiopia will increase by at least 20% within 90 days, as the fighting in the Amhara region expands.
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The public debate over Haredi economic contributions will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee holding a special session on the topic within 90 days, following Mochtar's video and the updated data on household losses.
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The number of fatal bicycle accidents on Israeli roads will increase by at least 15% over the next 90 days compared to the same period last year, following the high-profile deaths of Itzik Brashi and the cyclist near Magshimim Junction. Reference class: Israeli road accident fatalities for cyclists (2019-2025); base rate ~50% for seasonal increases in autumn. Confidence adjusted up due to the two recent deaths drawing attention to road safety but down due to potential police enforcement campaigns.
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The number of murders in Arab society will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, continuing the current trend. Reference class: Annual murder rates in Arab society (2020-2025); base rate ~80% for exceeding 200 if 177 are reached by late September. Confidence adjusted down due to potential police crackdowns.
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The number of passengers caught with prohibited plant material at Israeli borders will increase by at least 20% in the next 90 days compared to the previous 90-day period, as heightened Sukkot enforcement and public awareness campaigns take effect. Reference class: Israeli agricultural enforcement campaigns during holidays (2015-2025); base rate ~70% for increased seizures during targeted periods. Confidence adjusted down due to potential deterrent effect of the confiscation-and-replacement policy.
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Public pressure on the government to address the Haymanot Kasau case will intensify over the next 30 days, following Tesfaye Kasau's protest sukkah. Reference class: Israeli protest campaigns for missing persons (2010-2025); base rate ~40% for sustained media attention beyond 2 weeks. Confidence adjusted up due to the symbolic timing of Sukkot.
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The gap between American and Israeli Jewish perceptions of the link between Israeli policy and antisemitism will widen over the next 90 days, as the JPPI poll data is debated in both communities. Reference class: Transatlantic Jewish opinion gaps on Israel (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for widening over 90 days following a major poll. Confidence adjusted down due to the potential for a unifying event.
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The Knesset will not pass legislation raising the minimum marriage age or enforcing existing laws in Yavniel within 90 days, as the emergency committee meeting will not translate into legislative action during the election period.
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The HIV epidemic in Fiji will not be contained within 90 days, as the 16-fold increase in cases and the drug injection link indicate a systemic crisis that requires international intervention. Reference class: HIV outbreak responses in small island nations (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for containment within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the severity of the numbers and the declaration of a state of emergency.
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The Hostages Square Yom Kippur prayer will become an annual institutionalized event, with a formal organizing committee established within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli memorial and prayer gatherings post-October 7 (2023-2025); base rate ~60% for annualization within 90 days of a second successful event. Confidence adjusted up due to the organizers' expressed commitment to continuity.
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Public debate in Canada about the adequacy of the Canada Community Security Program will intensify over the next 30 days, following the Belleville synagogue shooting.
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At least one additional cat species will be formally recognized by a major taxonomic authority within 90 days, following the Leopardus tilcayo discovery and genetic findings that may raise the count to 45.
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The Tenufa LaTzafon administration will announce at least one additional major infrastructure project (budget >100 million shekels) for a northern town other than Kiryat Shmona within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli government regional development announcements (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for a second major project within 90 days of a first. Confidence adjusted up due to the one billion shekel flexible budget allocation.
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The family of Fatima al-Rajabi will file a formal complaint against the Israel Police for alleged negligence in the search for her, within 90 days.
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The Archbishop of Canterbury will issue a formal statement explaining the revocation of the Hubert Walter Award within 30 days, as the lack of a public reason creates pressure for transparency. Reference class: Church of England public statements on award revocations (2000-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a controversial revocation. Confidence adjusted up due to media attention and the 9/11 anniversary context.
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At least one more former hostage will publicly criticize the government's handling of the hostage crisis in a Yom Kippur-related context within 90 days.