Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
268 forecasts
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.
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The low indictment rate for settler violence (6.6%) will be cited by human rights groups in international forums to push for sanctions or diplomatic measures against Israeli authorities.
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The discovery of Nirel Zini's remains will prompt renewed public pressure on the government to accelerate efforts to recover the remains of other fallen soldiers and hostages.
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The teachers' union threat will lead to court proceedings within 30 days, but schools will open on time with a temporary compromise.
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Police will increase patrols in Haredi neighborhoods following the Bnei Brak attack, but no major prosecutions will be announced within 30 days.
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The October 7 commemoration bill will pass into law within 90 days, but will face controversy over its scope and implementation.
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The Sherman family incident will be cited by at least one Israeli politician or public figure in calls for greater social unity or against incitement within 30 days.
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The State Comptroller's audit on prostitution law enforcement will lead to legislative proposals to reform the law within 90 days.
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Bar Kupershtein's public appeal will lead to at least one government or NGO initiative to support released hostage reintegration within 90 days.
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Beit Shemesh's bus lane project will face legal challenges from residents opposed to reduced car lanes within 30 days.
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Rom Breslavsky's claim about hostage conversions will be cited by right-wing media and politicians to argue against prisoner exchanges, but will not be independently corroborated within 30 days.
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The Histadrut-OPZZ memorandum will lead to at least one joint labor initiative or exchange program within 90 days.
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The emergency conference of Hesder yeshiva students will lead to a formal petition or legal challenge against the Joint Service Order within 30 days.
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The Boston Medical Center incident will prompt at least one U.S. congressional inquiry or letter to the hospital administration within 90 days.
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Iris Haim's public anguish will galvanize calls for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, with new momentum over the next 90 days.
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Haredi protests against businesses operating on Shabbat in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by the Basmeta café incident.
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European governments will announce new heatwave early warning systems or infrastructure investments within 90 days, following the June 2026 deaths.
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The number of self-immolations in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet will increase over the next 90 days following Lobsang Rangzen's act.
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The legal campaign to oust journalist Roni Koven will escalate into a formal complaint to the Second Authority for Television and Radio within 90 days.
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Public and political pressure on the justice system will increase following the lenient sentence for Shimon Adiel Hadari, leading to a Knesset committee discussion on sentencing guidelines for sex crimes within 90 days.
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The Zvika Cohen controversy will lead to a Knesset committee hearing on autism benefits within 30 days.
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The number of Haredi national service participants will increase by at least 10% within 90 days, driven by official praise and security track expansion.
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The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.
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The number of disabled parking permits will decrease following the State Comptroller's report, with a reduction of at least 5% within 90 days.
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Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
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The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
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The 'Secular House' in Thailand will attract at least 100 visitors in its first three months, but Chabad will maintain higher engagement among Israeli travelers.
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The volume of illegal weapons smuggled into Israel will not decrease significantly over the next 90 days, despite increased seizures and harsher sentences.
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Arab crime organizations will expand their influence in Netanya, leading to at least one high-profile violent incident within 90 days.
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The number of theft cases from vehicles in Tel Aviv will continue to rise, exceeding 650 cases by late July as police struggle to curb the trend.
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The number of Pride-related events or counter-events in Israeli cities will increase over the next 90 days as activists push back against cancellations.
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The Health Ministry's ban on AI tools in hospitals will face increasing criticism from medical professionals, with at least one major hospital director publicly calling for a partial reversal within 30 days.
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Public discourse on Haredi military service will become increasingly polarized, with at least one major political figure calling for legislative action within 30 days.
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The number of killings in Arab society will continue to rise, exceeding 150 by late July, as police fail to curb the violence.
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The number of Bedouin home demolitions in the Negev will increase over the next 30 days as enforcement of court orders accelerates.
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The Haredi protest movement will continue to escalate over the next 7 days, with at least one major road blockade reported daily.
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The number of arrests of minors for serious crimes in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as police intensify enforcement following high-profile incidents.
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Public trust in police will decline further following the officers' sex act incident, as measured by a poll within 90 days.
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The number of court-ordered vaccinations in Israel will increase over the next 30 days as judges set precedent for overriding parental objections without medical evidence.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least 20 additional deaths reported.