Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
257 forecasts
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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At least one new Israeli government initiative to support orphans in Gaza will be announced within 90 days, following the Social Development Ministry's national platform launch.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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At least one additional snakebite incident in residential areas of Beit Shemesh will be reported in the next 90 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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South Korean women will not achieve an average life expectancy exceeding 90 years by 2030, as predicted, due to low birth rates and aging population pressures.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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The Welfare Ministry will open fewer than 50 new places in locked youth facilities within 90 days, despite the current waitlist of 132 children.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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Israel's academic growth rate among 25-34 year olds will remain below the OECD average for the next 90 days, with no new major policy initiatives announced to reverse the trend.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
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The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
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Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on emergency preparedness for senior citizens in the Gaza envelope within 90 days.
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The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
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The Elem report's findings will prompt a Knesset committee hearing on youth violence within 90 days.
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The Ministry of Labor will announce a new enforcement campaign on construction site safety within 90 days, following 23 construction worker deaths since the start of the year.
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Magen David Adom will report an increase in drowning-related calls along the Mediterranean coast over the next 30 days, compared to the same period last year, following three drownings on a single Saturday.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a pilot program to address Arab-Jewish workplace tensions in hospitals within 30 days, following the Abraham Initiatives study.
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The Israel Fire and Rescue Services will issue a public advisory or operational update within 7 days regarding increased fire risk due to continued hot and dry weather, following the two large fires on July 18.
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The University of Tokyo's findings on climate and suicide will be cited in at least one major policy proposal or parliamentary discussion in an OECD country within 90 days.
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Police will announce a formal task force or dedicated investigative unit for domestic violence in Bat Yam within 30 days, following the stabbing of a pregnant woman and the 82% femicide increase.
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The National Insurance Institute will face increased public scrutiny or a Knesset committee hearing regarding caregiver background checks within 30 days.
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The use of explosive devices by criminal organizations in Israel will see a measurable increase in the next 90 days, reversing the reported 30% decrease.
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The disparity in shelter access between Jewish and Arab communities will be addressed by a government committee within 90 days, following media pressure.
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The Privacy Protection Authority will issue new guidelines for age verification in online sales of smoking products within 90 days, following the Smoking Cessation Initiative's call.
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Ben-Gurion University will issue a public statement clarifying its policy on campus speech within 30 days, in response to the Parhi incident.
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At least one additional suspect will be arrested in connection with the Japanika grenade attacks within 90 days.
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At least one more survivor of the Haifa railway workshop disaster will give a public interview or testimony in the next 30 days, as the 20-year anniversary coverage continues.
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Bnei Brak's gender-segregated street policy will face a legal challenge at the High Court of Justice within 90 days.
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The controversy over PEN America's stance on cultural boycotts will lead to at least one more prominent resignation or public protest from a board member within 90 days.
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Public debate over maternity leave extension will intensify, with at least one MK proposing a bill to increase paid leave beyond 15 weeks within 30 days.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise, with at least one more motorcycle or scooter rider killed within 30 days.
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Public debate over Shabbat observance in mixed Jerusalem neighborhoods will intensify, with at least one more café or business facing similar protests or counter-protests within 30 days.
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The IDF will implement new social media conduct rules for soldiers within 90 days, following the Shira Brown scandal.
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Workplace safety enforcement will intensify, with at least one new regulation or task force announced within 90 days following the latest fatalities.
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The number of North American olim making aliyah via Nefesh B'Nefesh will decline by at least 10% in summer 2027 compared to summer 2026, as security concerns and identity tensions reduce migration.
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The number of murders in Ramla and Lod will increase by at least one more within 30 days, continuing the trend of violence.
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Business owners on Herzl Street in Rehovot will escalate protests or legal action against the Metronit construction within 30 days, citing continued revenue drops.
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The number of registered discrimination cases in Israel will increase in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, following heightened media attention on anti-racism enforcement.
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The State Comptroller's report on human trafficking will lead to at least one Knesset committee hearing dedicated to the issue within 90 days.
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The gender segregation bill in academia will face increased opposition from university officials and student groups, leading to a delay in its second and third readings.
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The labor dispute in nursing will lead to at least one limited strike day within 90 days, as negotiations fail to resolve the acute shortage of personnel.
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The Health Ministry will expand enforcement operations against cosmetic chains using suspected carcinogens within 30 days.
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The 'One Health' approach presented by Professor Sadetsky will be formally adopted in a Health Ministry directive within 90 days.