Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
186 forecasts
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The phenomenon of underage marriages in Yavne'el will continue despite police operations, with at least one more wedding reported within 30 days.
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The number of disabled parking permits will decrease following the State Comptroller's report, with a reduction of at least 5% within 90 days.
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Public pressure on the Education Ministry to address daycare inspection gaps will increase, with at least one Knesset committee hearing on the issue within 30 days.
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The 'Secular House' in Thailand will attract at least 100 visitors in its first three months, but Chabad will maintain higher engagement among Israeli travelers.
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The Canadian Museum for Human Rights will face increased pressure from Jewish donors and community leaders to modify or add context to its Nakba exhibit within 30 days.
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The volume of illegal weapons smuggled into Israel will not decrease significantly over the next 90 days, despite increased seizures and harsher sentences.
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Arab crime organizations will expand their influence in Netanya, leading to at least one high-profile violent incident within 90 days.
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The number of theft cases from vehicles in Tel Aviv will continue to rise, exceeding 650 cases by late July as police struggle to curb the trend.
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The number of Pride-related events or counter-events in Israeli cities will increase over the next 90 days as activists push back against cancellations.
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The Health Ministry's ban on AI tools in hospitals will face increasing criticism from medical professionals, with at least one major hospital director publicly calling for a partial reversal within 30 days.
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Public discourse on Haredi military service will become increasingly polarized, with at least one major political figure calling for legislative action within 30 days.
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The number of killings in Arab society will continue to rise, exceeding 150 by late July, as police fail to curb the violence.
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The number of Bedouin home demolitions in the Negev will increase over the next 30 days as enforcement of court orders accelerates.
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The Haredi protest movement will continue to escalate over the next 7 days, with at least one major road blockade reported daily.
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The number of arrests of minors for serious crimes in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as police intensify enforcement following high-profile incidents.
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Public trust in police will decline further following the officers' sex act incident, as measured by a poll within 90 days.
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The number of court-ordered vaccinations in Israel will increase over the next 30 days as judges set precedent for overriding parental objections without medical evidence.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least 20 additional deaths reported.
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The number of antisemitic incidents in Italy will continue to rise over the next 30 days, following the record 963 in 2025.
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The UAW divestment vote will inspire at least one other major US labor union to initiate a similar divestment process within 90 days.
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Public debate on the adult content industry will intensify following Athena Paris's confession, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on regulation within 90 days.
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Public statements from local council heads criticizing the government's handling of northern security will multiply within 7 days.
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The Israeli police will issue new guidelines on political expression at public events within 90 days following the Pride parade controversy.
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The closure of Bar Video will accelerate the decline of LGBTQ+ nightlife in Jerusalem, with no new dedicated venue opening within 90 days.
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Haredi street protests against conscription will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one large-scale demonstration drawing over 10,000 participants.
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The trend of high-priced tourist traps in Rome will continue to attract media attention and consumer backlash over the next 90 days.
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Public sharing of personal trauma on Israeli social media will increase over the next 30 days as a coping mechanism during ongoing rocket attacks.
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Interest in US air travel from Israel will continue to rise over the next 30 days, driven by advance booking trends.
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The number of murder victims in the Palestinian community will exceed 130 within 30 days, given the current rate of violence.
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The number of civilian gun owners in Israel will exceed 350,000 within 30 days, given the current trajectory of simplified licensing and the security situation.
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At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the extended detentions and the pattern of escalation.
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At least one more violent incident involving journalists or LGBTQ+ individuals in Israel within 7 days, given the spray-painted death threats and the arrest of a Haifa resident for threatening the LGBTQ+ community.
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The Jerusalem Faction will carry out at least one more protest involving property damage or clashes with police within 7 days, following the Beit Shemesh incident.
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Haifa municipality will suspend the inspector who slapped the 15-year-old boy within 30 days, following public pressure.
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Haifa municipality will issue a public statement within 7 days announcing an investigation into the inspector who slapped the 15-year-old boy.
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Haifa municipality will suspend the inspector who slapped Ez al-Din Muad within 30 days, following public pressure.