Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
257 forecasts
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The controversy over Paramount's accusation of antisemitism against Mark Ruffalo will be referenced in at least one major US entertainment industry publication within 30 days.
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The collapse of the Palestine Action trial will lead to at least one new protest or direct action by the group in the UK within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on homelessness within the next 90 days, driven by the gap between official counts and NGO-reported numbers.
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The 100-gambler raid in Haifa will be followed by at least one additional police operation targeting illegal gambling in the same city within 90 days.
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The blood feud in Lod will see at least one additional violent incident, such as an attempted revenge attack or a police raid, within the next 30 days.
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Public pressure on the government over the handling of missing persons cases like Haymanot Kasau will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee hearing or parliamentary question specifically referencing the case.
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The crisis of trust in Arab society's leadership will deepen, as indicated by a follow-up poll showing a further decline in trust among younger Arab Israelis.
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The Jerusalem Appeals Tribunal will issue a final ruling on Telma Kasau's deportation within 30 days, either granting her status or ordering her removal.
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Israeli media coverage of the Yahalomi sisters' return will shift from celebration to scrutiny of privacy violations within 30 days.
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The Ministry of Education will face at least one public petition or legal challenge against the new non-unionized teacher track within 90 days.
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The frequency of Haredi road blockades over Shabbat public transport will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli media.
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The frequency of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reported incidents in Israeli and Palestinian media.
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The Forward will name a new editor-in-chief within 90 days.
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The US Senate bill to recognize Judaism as an ethnic group will face formal opposition from Jewish organizations within 90 days.
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The Health Ministry committee investigating Reut Cohen's death will convene within 30 days, as promised, and issue at least one public update.
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The grenade attack network in Bat Yam will be linked to at least one additional attack or arrest within 90 days.
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Nazareth's 77-day streak without murder will be broken within 90 days, with at least one new killing reported in the city.
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The search for Mally and Liel Yahalomi will yield at least one new public development—such as a confirmed sighting, a recovered item, or an official statement of a leading scenario—within 30 days.
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The Tiberias 'kosher sidewalk' will face a legal challenge or public protest within 30 days.
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The number of homicides in Arab communities will continue to rise over the next 30 days, with at least one additional killing reported in Shfaram or nearby localities.
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The 'Hostages Square' official designation will be referenced in at least three major Israeli media reports over the next 30 days, including at least one ceremony or political event held at the site.
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The Rambam Hospital controversy will lead to at least one official inquiry or report on treatment of soldiers or Arab staff within 90 days, beyond the current IDF examination.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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The number of complex X-ray misreadings reported in Israeli media will increase over the next 30 days, as the study's findings prompt further investigation and public discussion.
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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The number of police raids and closures in Rahat will increase over the next 30 days as the clan dispute continues.
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The number of reported speed-camera tickets issued by A-3 cameras will increase by at least 20% over the next 30 days following the enforcement threshold update.
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The Tair Rada case will see renewed public and media attention, with at least one new investigative report or official statement referencing possible child involvement within 90 days.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fence breach or security alert at a kibbutz near the Gaza border will be reported in Israeli media, triggering a similar barricade response.
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The number of workplace fatalities in Israel will exceed 60 by the end of the year, continuing the current pace.
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Israeli courts will issue at least one more ruling in the next 90 days that overrides a signed financial agreement between spouses, citing changed circumstances.
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Over the next 30 days, there will be at least one more reported incident of flag desecration at a military cemetery in Israel.
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The Link Up app will gain official recognition or funding from an Israeli municipality or NGO within 90 days.
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Israeli media coverage of emigration will increase, with at least two major outlets publishing feature stories on Israelis who left in 2025 within 30 days.
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The number of organized support groups for reservists' families in Be'er Sheva will grow by at least 10% over the next 30 days.
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The Health Ministry will issue additional public warnings about toxic plants or food safety within 30 days.
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Suhaila Ghanem will be publicly honored by at least one medical or Druze community organization within 90 days of her retirement.
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The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
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The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
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The number of Arabs killed in crime-related circumstances will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, given the current rate of 158 since the beginning of the year.
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The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
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Haredi enlistment will continue to rise over the next 90 days, but the rate of increase will slow as rabbinic opposition intensifies.
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International human rights organizations will issue a joint report condemning conditions in Israeli prisons, citing the al-Barsh case, within 90 days.
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At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The NYPD will officially classify the hammer attack at the Jewish Institute of Queens as a hate crime within 90 days, despite initial belief it was random.
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The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.