Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
186 forecasts
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The Rambam Hospital controversy will lead to at least one official inquiry or report on treatment of soldiers or Arab staff within 90 days, beyond the current IDF examination.
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The Arad Municipality will announce a specific penalty or enforcement action against the billboard vandal within 30 days.
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The number of complex X-ray misreadings reported in Israeli media will increase over the next 30 days, as the study's findings prompt further investigation and public discussion.
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Protests outside Cafe Basimta will continue on at least three of the next four Shabbat days, with at least one arrest reported.
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The Tzabar nucleus program will report a further increase in applications from France over the next 30 days, building on the 20-fold rise since October 7.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fatal accident involving a child during summer vacation will be reported in Israeli media.
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The number of reported speed-camera tickets issued by A-3 cameras will increase by at least 20% over the next 30 days following the enforcement threshold update.
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The number of police raids and closures in Rahat will increase over the next 30 days as the clan dispute continues.
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The Tair Rada case will see renewed public and media attention, with at least one new investigative report or official statement referencing possible child involvement within 90 days.
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Over the next 30 days, at least one more fence breach or security alert at a kibbutz near the Gaza border will be reported in Israeli media, triggering a similar barricade response.
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Israeli courts will issue at least one more ruling in the next 90 days that overrides a signed financial agreement between spouses, citing changed circumstances.
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The number of workplace fatalities in Israel will exceed 60 by the end of the year, continuing the current pace.
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Over the next 30 days, there will be at least one more reported incident of flag desecration at a military cemetery in Israel.
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The Link Up app will gain official recognition or funding from an Israeli municipality or NGO within 90 days.
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Israeli media coverage of emigration will increase, with at least two major outlets publishing feature stories on Israelis who left in 2025 within 30 days.
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The number of organized support groups for reservists' families in Be'er Sheva will grow by at least 10% over the next 30 days.
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The Health Ministry will issue additional public warnings about toxic plants or food safety within 30 days.
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The public debate over the Al-Mughayyir soldier's release will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional protest or Knesset statement addressing the incident.
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Suhaila Ghanem will be publicly honored by at least one medical or Druze community organization within 90 days of her retirement.
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The number of drowning deaths on Israeli beaches will increase over the next 30 days, continuing the deadly trend seen in the past week.
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The number of Arabs killed in crime-related circumstances will exceed 200 by the end of 2026, given the current rate of 158 since the beginning of the year.
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The number of migrants crossing the English Channel will increase over the next 30 days, reversing the 45% decrease seen so far in 2026.
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Haredi enlistment will continue to rise over the next 90 days, but the rate of increase will slow as rabbinic opposition intensifies.
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International human rights organizations will issue a joint report condemning conditions in Israeli prisons, citing the al-Barsh case, within 90 days.
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At least one additional case of severe adverse effects from unregulated dietary supplements sold on social media will be reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The NYPD will officially classify the hammer attack at the Jewish Institute of Queens as a hate crime within 90 days, despite initial belief it was random.
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The number of reported work accidents at construction sites in Israel will remain at or above the current rate over the next 30 days, given the ongoing enforcement gaps.
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The number of social workers participating in protest actions will increase over the next 30 days, following the warning that 7,400 specialists are at risk of protesting.
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The number of serious traffic accidents involving electric bicycles and scooters will be reported at a higher frequency in Israeli media over the next 30 days, following the deaths of Omer Shadi Azzam and Muad Bahash.
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The Shin Bet will officially join the investigation into Haymanot Kasau's disappearance within 30 days.
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The number of antisemitic online incidents targeting Jewish public figures will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in Israeli media.
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At least one new Israeli government initiative to support orphans in Gaza will be announced within 90 days, following the Social Development Ministry's national platform launch.
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Arad Mayor Yair Maayan's call for police enforcement against Haredi extremists will lead to at least one publicized arrest within 30 days.
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The Interior Ministry will not change its age-restriction policy for Righteous Among the Nations descendants within 30 days, despite the January 2026 court ruling.
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At least one additional snakebite incident in residential areas of Beit Shemesh will be reported in the next 90 days.
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South Korean women will not achieve an average life expectancy exceeding 90 years by 2030, as predicted, due to low birth rates and aging population pressures.
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The Tel Aviv Labor Court ruling on unpaid family work will be cited in at least one new labor lawsuit within 30 days.
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The Welfare Ministry will open fewer than 50 new places in locked youth facilities within 90 days, despite the current waitlist of 132 children.
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The number of grenade attacks linked to the Jarushi-Mosly crime family conflict will increase within 30 days.
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The number of settler attacks on Palestinian villages in Samaria will increase over the next 30 days, as measured by reports in major Israeli media.
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Israel's academic growth rate among 25-34 year olds will remain below the OECD average for the next 90 days, with no new major policy initiatives announced to reverse the trend.
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The release of a minor suspect's identity in the Binyahu Razi murder will lead to at least one more court petition by a media outlet or NGO seeking to publish the name of a minor suspect in a violent crime within 30 days.
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The Teachers' Union will not declare a new labor dispute within 30 days, as the current settlement holds.
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The Ministry of Health will announce the formation of an inter-ministerial task force for rabies control within 30 days.
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The number of veteran families returning to Kibbutz Nir Oz will increase from about 20 to at least 30 within 30 days.
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Public shaming incidents targeting Haredi charity collectors will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, driven by viral social media sharing.
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The Ministry of Health will announce a task force to address nurse burnout and retention within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a hearing on emergency preparedness for senior citizens in the Gaza envelope within 90 days.
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The Council for Higher Education will announce increased supervision of gender segregation in academia within 30 days.
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The Elem report's findings will prompt a Knesset committee hearing on youth violence within 90 days.