Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
257 forecasts
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The Tenufa LaTzafon administration will announce at least one additional major infrastructure project (budget >100 million shekels) for a northern town other than Kiryat Shmona within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli government regional development announcements (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for a second major project within 90 days of a first. Confidence adjusted up due to the one billion shekel flexible budget allocation.
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The Archbishop of Canterbury will issue a formal statement explaining the revocation of the Hubert Walter Award within 30 days, as the lack of a public reason creates pressure for transparency. Reference class: Church of England public statements on award revocations (2000-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a controversial revocation. Confidence adjusted up due to media attention and the 9/11 anniversary context.
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The family of Fatima al-Rajabi will file a formal complaint against the Israel Police for alleged negligence in the search for her, within 90 days.
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The public confrontation between Shelly Mesch Yogev and Aharon Haliva will lead to at least one additional bereaved family publicly demanding a personal meeting with a former senior IDF officer within 30 days.
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The public campaign by Barak Bar's parents for mandatory cognitive testing of elderly drivers will gain at least one Knesset sponsor within 30 days.
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At least one more former hostage will publicly criticize the government's handling of the hostage crisis in a Yom Kippur-related context within 90 days.
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The number of U.S. states adopting social studies standards that include 'ancestral homeland of the Jews' language for Israel's founding will increase from 1 to at least 2 within 90 days.
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The number of reported incidents involving heavy weapons (LAW missiles, RPGs, anti-tank missiles) in criminal contexts in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the recent attacks in Jaljulia, Kafr Qasim, and Sajur indicate a pattern.
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Public debate over the NAZA documentary will intensify, with at least one Knesset committee discussion on revoking the filmmakers' citizenship within 30 days. Reference class: Knesset committee discussions on citizenship revocation (2015-2025); base rate ~40% within 30 days of a minister's announcement. Confidence adjusted up due to Culture Minister Zohar's explicit threat.
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The controversy over the Givat Tidhar outpost will not lead to a formal evacuation order within 30 days, as the government is unlikely to enforce removals ahead of elections.
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The number of Israeli Jewish centenarians will not exceed 1,500 by end of 2026, as Japan's 107,677 figure reflects a different demographic and healthcare context.
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The total amount of ketamine seized in the Cyprus investigation will not exceed 500 kg within 90 days, as the current haul of 390 kg is already large and further seizures are likely to diminish. Reference class: large-scale drug seizures in Cyprus (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for exceeding initial haul by 30% within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ongoing nature of the investigation.
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The number of new students at the Schechter Institute will not increase by more than 10% within 90 days, as the 25% growth over two years is a medium-term trend. Reference class: Israeli academic enrollment growth rates (2015-2025); base rate ~5% per quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to reported momentum from the current news cycle.
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The Rasha Zaid candidacy in Windsor will not result in a formal investigation by the Ontario Human Rights Commission within 30 days, as the threshold for investigation is high. Reference class: Human rights complaints against candidates in Ontario (2010-2025); base rate ~30% for formal investigation within 30 days of a complaint. Confidence adjusted down due to the public nature of the statement, increasing political pressure.
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The Jerusalem Urban Food Forum will not publicly report rescuing more than 1,000 tons of food within 90 days of its launch, as the coordination mechanism is still being built. Reference class: municipal food rescue programs in cities of similar size (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for reaching 1,000 tons in the first quarter. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of coordinating 2,200 businesses.
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The number of olive trees uprooted in the West Bank will exceed 30,000 by end of 2026, as the rate of 15,534 in six months suggests continued destruction. Reference class: Ynet reporting on uprooted trees (2026); base rate ~30,000/year. Confidence adjusted up due to the accelerated pace.
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The number of Israeli cultural events abroad that are boycotted or protested will not decrease by more than 20% within 90 days, given the sustained post-Oct. 7 polarization. Reference class: Boycotts of Israeli cultural events (2023-2025); base rate ~5% month-over-month decline. Confidence adjusted up due to the Venice Biennale protests as a high-profile case.
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The controversy surrounding the film 'BDA' will not lead to a formal IDF investigation or change in targeting protocols within 30 days, as the military rejects the claims. Reference class: IDF responses to critical soldier testimonies (2014-2025); base rate ~15% for a formal investigation within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the IDF's categorical rejection.
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The number of new immigrants from North America in 2026 will exceed 4,000, as the summer wave of 2,200 suggests continued momentum through the fall. Reference class: Nefesh B'Nefesh annual aliyah figures from North America (2015-2025); base rate ~70% for hitting annual forecasts. Confidence adjusted down due to potential security deterioration after the High Holy Days.
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The Phuket Chabad House will not host any large-scale public Israeli holiday events for the remainder of the High Holy Days, as security concerns and local protest momentum persist.
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The number of 18- to 29-year-olds who learned about 9/11 in school will not increase by more than 5 percentage points over the next 90 days, as curriculum changes are slow. Reference class: US education policy change rates (2000-2025); base rate ~10% for a 5-point shift in 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the 25th anniversary media push.
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The number of families returning to Kibbutz Kfar Aza will not exceed 80 within 90 days, given the slow pace of return and the deep trauma and lack of trust among residents.
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The controversy surrounding teacher Miriam Abu Bakr at Shirat Yam school will not lead to a formal Ministry of Education investigation or policy change within 30 days, as the issue remains localized.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to address the PISA decline within 30 days, as the election campaign shifts focus away from long-term reform.
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The Ministry of Education will not announce a national program to combat bullying in schools within 90 days, despite Herzog's declaration of a state of emergency.
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The number of Haredi deserters arrested at border crossings will increase over the next 30 days as Rosh Hashanah approaches, with at least 100 total arrests reported by mid-October.
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The Syrian government will not adopt a new constitution guaranteeing equality for religious minorities within 90 days, as internal Islamist factions resist. Reference class: Syrian transitional constitutional processes (2011-2025); base rate ~15% for adoption within 90 days of a minister's call. Confidence adjusted up due to Kabawat's minority position and the segregation controversy.
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The Ministry of Health will not announce a new method for detecting or neutralizing the brain-eating amoeba in the Sea of Galilee within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli environmental health policy changes after public health warnings (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new method within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the ministry's explicit admission of no tools.
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Public debate over the treatment of Arab students in Israeli universities will intensify over the next 90 days, with at least one Knesset committee discussion or a minister's statement responding to the Adalah report. Reference class: Israeli Knesset responses to civil society reports on minority rights (2015-2025); base rate ~55% for a formal response within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the report's specific allegation of 'apartheid' and the upcoming election context.
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Moumen Al-Natour will not receive a formal response from the Trump administration within 30 days regarding his request for a meeting.
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The number of reported shootings in Arab communities in Israel will increase over the next 30 days, as the protection money racket escalates.
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The number of public protests in Jerusalem over Shabbat business closures will increase over the next 30 days, as secular and liberal groups mobilize in response to the Cafe in the Alley incident. Reference class: Jerusalem Shabbat protests (2020-2025); base rate ~55% for a protest wave within 30 days of a high-profile closure. Confidence adjusted up due to the coffee cart action and Schwartz's explicit call to action.
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The number of women applying to the Fire in the Eyes preparatory program will exceed 50 within 30 days of its launch, based on the 98 who applied last year for the general tender and the program's targeted outreach.
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The number of anti-Semitic incidents in Spain will continue to rise over the next 90 days, driven by the ongoing political fallout from the Ceuta migration crisis.
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The tension between Haredi enlistment and rabbinical opposition will intensify over the next 90 days, as the 30% enlistment increase is met with more public orders to leave the IDF. Reference class: Haredi draft crises in Israel (2017-2024); base rate ~60% for escalation after an enlistment surge. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature of the Salim order.
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Violence against public transportation drivers will continue to be reported at a rate of at least 40 cases per month over the next 30 days, as the underlying safety conditions remain unaddressed.
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The teacher shortage in Israel will not be significantly reduced within 90 days, as no new major recruitment or salary reform is announced.
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The share of Arab Israeli doctors will remain stable or increase slightly over the next 90 days, as no new medical schools are announced to address the shortage.
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Nepal will accept international aid for flood relief within 90 days, as the death toll and missing persons numbers strain domestic capacity.
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The state will not establish a dedicated psychological rehabilitation fund for released hostages within 90 days, maintaining reliance on crowdfunding.
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The number of road fatalities in Israel will exceed 300 by the end of September 2026, as the current pace of 291 since January continues without a new national safety plan.
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The PIMS hospital fire in Islamabad will trigger an official inquiry report that identifies specific safety violations within 90 days.
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The number of reported violent incidents involving knives carried by minors will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year within 90 days.
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The Education Ministry will modify the nurse-for-aide pilot program before the August 30 deadline to avoid a High Court petition.
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The IDF will issue a public directive on handling stray dogs at bases within 30 days, following the Camp Noam euthanasia controversy.
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The share of Israeli parents reporting academic harm to their children will remain above 85% in any new survey within 30 days, as the school year begins and teacher shortages persist.
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The share of Israelis who fear identifying themselves abroad will increase by at least 3 percentage points in the next poll within 30 days.
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Public transportation on Shabbat will remain a flashpoint, with at least one additional protest or confrontation reported in Israeli media within 30 days.
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The share of National-Religious men in IDF reserve duty will continue to grow relative to their population share over the next 90 days, as secular participation declines further.
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Swedish police will publicly identify a specific online community or platform linked to the Fagersta attacker within the next 30 days.