Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
14 forecasts
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Police will publicly link the Or Akiva shooting to the Yushvayev assassination within 30 days.
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The frequency of price tag attacks in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, with at least two new incidents reported by Israeli media.
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Russia will conduct at least one additional strike in Ukraine targeting a location where rescue or medical personnel are present within the next 30 days.
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The IDF will increase the tempo of airstrikes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as the political echelon signals a tougher line ahead of elections.
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Hamas will escalate its use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as a response to perceived loss of control.
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Iranian-backed proxy groups will conduct at least one publicly reported attack on a US military asset in Europe within 30 days.
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Over the next 30 days, the Israel Police will make at least one arrest in connection with the stun grenade attacks on the Rami Levy Stock branch in Ramla or the residential tower in Park Tzameret.
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The Mosli-Jerushi conflict will see at least one additional grenade or shooting incident within 30 days, breaking the current truce.
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The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical supplies within 30 days, citing the depletion of 50% of essential medicines.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical gauze donations within 30 days, citing the acute shortage.
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Israeli police will make an arrest in the settler run-over case of Yamama Abdul Mumin Ahmad Abdullah within 30 days.
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The IDF Chief of Staff will publicly warn within 7 days that a withdrawal from Lebanon without political warning could escalate casualties, using the phrase 'withdrawal under fire' or equivalent.
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Hezbollah will claim responsibility for a rocket or drone launch from southern Lebanon within 7 days, retaliating for the IDF drone interception.