Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
6 forecasts
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The number of weapons seizures from IDF personnel will increase over the next 30 days, as police and military police intensify joint operations.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical supplies within 30 days, citing the depletion of 50% of essential medicines.
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Palestinian Red Crescent Society will issue an international appeal for medical gauze donations within 30 days, citing the acute shortage.
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Israeli police will make an arrest in the settler run-over case of Yamama Abdul Mumin Ahmad Abdullah within 30 days.
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The IDF Chief of Staff will publicly warn within 7 days that a withdrawal from Lebanon without political warning could escalate casualties, using the phrase 'withdrawal under fire' or equivalent.
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Hezbollah will claim responsibility for a rocket or drone launch from southern Lebanon within 7 days, retaliating for the IDF drone interception.