Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
20 forecasts
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Police will publicly link the Or Akiva shooting to the Yushvayev assassination within 30 days.
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The Hadera business targeted by two grenade attacks will be the site of a third violent incident within 90 days.
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The number of kites launched from Gaza into Israel will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days compared to the current baseline, as the IDF's strike in Shati camp fails to deter the practice.
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The number of shootings in Israel will remain at or above the current rate, with at least one new shooting incident reported per week over the next 90 days.
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The frequency of price tag attacks in the West Bank will increase over the next 30 days, with at least two new incidents reported by Israeli media.
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Russia will conduct at least one additional strike in Ukraine targeting a location where rescue or medical personnel are present within the next 30 days.
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Piracy attacks off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden will continue at a rate of at least one per month over the next 90 days, exceeding the 2025 baseline.
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The IDF will increase the tempo of airstrikes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as the political echelon signals a tougher line ahead of elections.
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Hamas will escalate its use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes in Gaza over the next 30 days, as a response to perceived loss of control.
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The IRGC will conduct at least one publicly reported test of a new ballistic missile or drone system within 90 days, as a show of force in response to Trump's economic threats.
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The US naval blockade of Iran will lead to at least one publicly reported incident of Iranian harassment or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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The IDF will publicly restrict or ban the use of Chinese-made drones on front lines within 90 days, following the leakage warnings.
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Iranian-backed proxy groups will conduct at least one publicly reported attack on a US military asset in Europe within 30 days.
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The indictment against Abdullah Gargawi will be upgraded to include charges of attempted murder or terrorism offenses within 90 days.
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The US will announce a formal review or partial reversal of air defense withdrawals from Erbil within 90 days, following Kurdish protests.
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Over the next 30 days, the Israel Police will make at least one arrest in connection with the stun grenade attacks on the Rami Levy Stock branch in Ramla or the residential tower in Park Tzameret.
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Police will make at least one additional arrest in the suspected gang rape case in the north within 90 days.
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Police will conduct at least one more large-scale raid targeting illegal gambling or stolen property in the Tel Aviv or Ashkelon area within 90 days.
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The assassination campaign against Russian military officers will expand to include at least one new high-ranking target within 90 days.
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The Mosli-Jerushi conflict will see at least one additional grenade or shooting incident within 30 days, breaking the current truce.