Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
16 forecasts
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Iranian efforts to plan attacks against US civilians will be publicly cited by at least one additional US intelligence official within 30 days, beyond Clayton's memo.
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At least one of the nine released settler-attack suspects will be returned to custody or have house-arrest terms tightened by a court within 7 days.
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The Israel Police will issue a public statement confirming or ruling out the report of a body at Sdot Yam beach within 7 days.
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At least one additional NATO member state will publicly revise its threat assessment of a Russian attack upward within 90 days, following the Czech intelligence chief's warning.
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The Hadera business targeted by two grenade attacks will be the site of a third violent incident within 90 days.
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The number of kites launched from Gaza into Israel will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days compared to the current baseline, as the IDF's strike in Shati camp fails to deter the practice.
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The number of shootings in Israel will remain at or above the current rate, with at least one new shooting incident reported per week over the next 90 days.
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Piracy attacks off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden will continue at a rate of at least one per month over the next 90 days, exceeding the 2025 baseline.
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The IRGC will conduct at least one publicly reported test of a new ballistic missile or drone system within 90 days, as a show of force in response to Trump's economic threats.
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The IDF will publicly restrict or ban the use of Chinese-made drones on front lines within 90 days, following the leakage warnings.
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The US naval blockade of Iran will lead to at least one publicly reported incident of Iranian harassment or seizure of a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days.
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The indictment against Abdullah Gargawi will be upgraded to include charges of attempted murder or terrorism offenses within 90 days.
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The US will announce a formal review or partial reversal of air defense withdrawals from Erbil within 90 days, following Kurdish protests.
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Police will make at least one additional arrest in the suspected gang rape case in the north within 90 days.
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Police will conduct at least one more large-scale raid targeting illegal gambling or stolen property in the Tel Aviv or Ashkelon area within 90 days.
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The assassination campaign against Russian military officers will expand to include at least one new high-ranking target within 90 days.