Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
14 forecasts
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Iran will execute at least 100 more people within the next 30 days, maintaining the current pace of executions.
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Hezbollah will intensify public rhetoric against the Lebanese government's disarmament efforts over the next 30 days, with at least two major speeches or statements from Naim Qassem or other senior officials.
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The voluntary migration of Gazans will become a more prominent topic in Israeli political discourse, with at least two major party leaders publicly endorsing or rejecting it within 90 days.
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Within 90 days, Iran and Oman will sign a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping that includes a payment mechanism, as reported in talks.
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The France-Cyprus SOFA will provoke Turkey to conduct additional naval exercises or airspace violations near Cyprus within 90 days.
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Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.
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Iran's nuclear posture will become more ambiguous, with increased IAEA inspections or public statements hinting at a shift, but no formal policy change within 90 days.
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The Israel-Lebanon agreement will face continued opposition from both Hezbollah and Israeli right-wing figures, reducing its effectiveness over the next 90 days.
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The US will increase THAAD deployments in the Middle East within 90 days, leveraging the new $35 billion contract.
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Hezbollah's rhetoric of 'breaking the Israeli project' will translate into increased operational activity along the Lebanon-Israel border within 90 days, including attempted infiltrations or rocket fire.
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North Korea will accelerate its nuclear and naval buildup, using Iran's perceived vulnerability as justification, within 90 days.
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Hezbollah's domestic support in Lebanon will continue to decline, with at least one major public opinion poll showing a drop in approval among Shiite respondents within 90 days.
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The Greek PM's warning and Zisser's critique will fuel a broader European reconsideration of diplomatic approaches to Israel, with some EU states publicly expressing unease.
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The number of reported settler attacks on Palestinian agricultural lands will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year, following the camel release incident.