Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
26 forecasts
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Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure will continue, with at least one additional strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility reported by a named Saudi authority within 30 days.
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Egypt will not announce or conduct any military strike on Yemeni territory within 30 days, keeping Sisi's stated separation between defending Saudi Arabia and attacking Yemen intact.
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The trilateral defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will be ratified by the Turkish parliament within 30 days.
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At least one additional foreign engineering or construction firm will publicly announce withdrawal from a Jerusalem infrastructure project over the next 90 days, extending the cable car pattern.
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The Egyptian parliament will approve the military deployment authorization requested by President Sisi within 7 days of the vote being held.
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At least one additional commercial vessel in or near the Strait of Hormuz will be reported by UKMTO or a national maritime authority as struck by a mine or projectile over the next 30 days, sustaining the pattern set by the two tankers and the Saudi-coast incident.
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The Saudi-led coalition will publicly name at least one specific regional party as the source of Houthi advanced technology within 30 days, escalating from general accusations to a direct attribution.
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Hezbollah will announce at least one further tranche of compensation or reconstruction payments to displaced Lebanese households within 30 days, extending the current plan into a series rather than a one-off.
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Egypt will not formally join a Saudi-led regional defense alliance within 30 days; Cairo's offer will remain at the level of declared readiness rather than a signed accession.
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OpenAI will report at least one more Iranian influence operation with a rating of 3 or higher on its Influence Operation scale within 90 days.
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The Houthis will launch at least one more publicly reported attack on Saudi territory within 30 days, sustaining the current pattern of escalation despite Saudi-Iranian diplomatic contacts.
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Iran's Revolutionary Guards will conduct at least one additional publicly reported missile or drone launch drill before the end of the 90-day window, sustaining a pattern of repeated exercises rather than a single demonstration.
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The US will not announce a formal decision to join Saudi strikes against the Houthis within 30 days, as Trump's 'very quickly' framing leaves room for delay.
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Iranian hardliners will successfully force a cabinet reshuffle or the resignation of Foreign Minister Araghchi within 30 days, as the no-confidence motion gains traction. Reference class: Iranian parliamentary no-confidence motions against ministers (2015-2026); base rate ~35% for success within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the dual pressure of economic collapse and the push to strengthen the National Security Council at the expense of parliament.
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The number of reported livestock poisoning attacks by Palestinians in the West Bank will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 30-day period, as the Alon Road attack sets a precedent for a new tactic.
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The Lebanese government's caravan initiative in southern Lebanon will expand to at least two more villages within 90 days, as the state tests Hezbollah's tolerance. Reference class: Lebanese government infrastructure projects in Hezbollah-dominated areas (2020-2026); base rate ~40% for expansion to 2+ villages within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported shift in village sentiment toward the government.
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Yemeni military operations against the Houthis will expand to include at least two more provinces within 30 days, as the government seeks to capitalize on the declaration of war. Reference class: Yemeni government offensives against Houthis (2015-2026); base rate ~55% for expansion to 2+ provinces within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the formal declaration and recent Houthi provocations.
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Saudi Arabia will not publicly grant the US permission to use its airspace for strikes on Iran within 90 days, as the Patriot deployment alone may not be sufficient to overcome Saudi concerns about retaliation.
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The investigation into Iliyan Filipov's murder in Plovdiv will not result in formal charges against a suspect within 90 days.
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Dahlan will not be formally appointed to a leadership role in Gaza within 90 days, despite his reemergence as a candidate. Reference class: Post-conflict leadership transitions in Gaza (2007-2025); base rate ~45% for no formal appointment within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the 'day after' negotiations and opposition from security figures who see him as corrupt.
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Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq will conduct at least one attack on US-linked targets in Syria or Iraq within 30 days following the US withdrawal. Reference class: Militia attacks on US interests after US drawdowns in Iraq (2011-2020); base rate ~65% for an attack within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the vacuum created and the IRGC's recent aggressive rhetoric.
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Hezbollah's political isolation in Lebanon will deepen over the next 30 days, with at least one more public statement from a major Lebanese political figure criticizing the group's refusal to hand over Ali al-Taher Ridge. Reference class: Public criticism of Hezbollah by Lebanese figures (2020-2025); base rate ~60% for a new critical statement within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the recent commemoration highlighting the isolation.
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Iran will execute at least 100 more people within the next 30 days, maintaining the current pace of executions.
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The voluntary migration of Gazans will become a more prominent topic in Israeli political discourse, with at least two major party leaders publicly endorsing or rejecting it within 90 days.
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Within 90 days, Iran and Oman will sign a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping that includes a payment mechanism, as reported in talks.
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Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.