Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
45 forecasts
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Iran will execute at least 100 more people within the next 30 days, maintaining the current pace of executions.
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Iran will not carry out any overt military action to block Gulf oil exports within 90 days, despite Rezai's threat.
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Hezbollah will intensify public rhetoric against the Lebanese government's disarmament efforts over the next 30 days, with at least two major speeches or statements from Naim Qassem or other senior officials.
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The voluntary migration of Gazans will become a more prominent topic in Israeli political discourse, with at least two major party leaders publicly endorsing or rejecting it within 90 days.
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Within 90 days, Iran and Oman will sign a formal agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping that includes a payment mechanism, as reported in talks.
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Jordan will expel at least one Iranian diplomat within 30 days in response to missile strikes on its territory.
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The Lebanese army will deploy in at least two more villages in southern Lebanon within 30 days as part of the pilot program.
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Iraqi Shia groups under the 'Islamic Resistance' will carry out at least one attack on US forces in Iraq within 30 days.
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Iranian-backed attacks on Kuwait will continue at a rate of at least 10 per week over the next 30 days.
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The Houthis will attempt to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb within 90 days, but will not fully close the strait.
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Iran's internal power struggle will delay finalization of the US-Iran deal beyond 90 days.
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IRGC will conduct a limited missile or drone test launch within 30 days, citing 'divine revenge' rhetoric.
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Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will escalate into a limited cross-border attack within 30 days, but will not trigger a full war.
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The trapped Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon will either be killed or captured within 30 days, reducing the tunnel threat.
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Iran's media crackdown ahead of Khamenei's funeral will intensify, with at least one prominent journalist or editor arrested within 30 days.
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The France-Cyprus SOFA will provoke Turkey to conduct additional naval exercises or airspace violations near Cyprus within 90 days.
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Kurdish rebel clashes in Iran will escalate, drawing IRGC reinforcements and causing at least 50 additional casualties within 90 days.
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Iran's nuclear posture will become more ambiguous, with increased IAEA inspections or public statements hinting at a shift, but no formal policy change within 90 days.
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The Israel-Lebanon agreement will face continued opposition from both Hezbollah and Israeli right-wing figures, reducing its effectiveness over the next 90 days.
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The US and Iran will avoid further direct military strikes for at least 30 days, but proxy attacks in Syria and Iraq will increase.
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IRGC will conduct a limited retaliatory strike against US or Israeli assets in the Persian Gulf within 7 days.
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Israeli officials will increase public warnings to Iran via Persian-language channels over the next 30 days.
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IRGC will increase harassment of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 30 days, targeting ships using the Omani corridor.
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Israeli officials will publicly confirm a framework agreement with Lebanon within 30 days, following the Washington talks.
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The number of countries deploying personnel to the International Stabilization Force for Gaza will increase as the Cyprus summit approaches.
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The US will increase THAAD deployments in the Middle East within 90 days, leveraging the new $35 billion contract.
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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually increase but remain below 60% of pre-war levels within 90 days due to ongoing tensions.
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Hezbollah's rhetoric of 'breaking the Israeli project' will translate into increased operational activity along the Lebanon-Israel border within 90 days, including attempted infiltrations or rocket fire.
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Hezbollah will escalate attempts to locate and target senior Israeli commanders in southern Lebanon using night operations and radio monitoring.
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North Korea will accelerate its nuclear and naval buildup, using Iran's perceived vulnerability as justification, within 90 days.
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Hezbollah's domestic support in Lebanon will continue to decline, with at least one major public opinion poll showing a drop in approval among Shiite respondents within 90 days.
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The US-Iran deal will lead to increased Houthi rhetoric against Israel and the US, but not to direct military escalation from Yemen within 90 days.
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Iran will enforce new Strait of Hormuz navigation rules selectively, causing at least one reported incident with a commercial vessel within 90 days.
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Houthi attempts to infiltrate Israel by land will increase over the next 30 days, following Bar'am's warning.
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Iran will continue limited military actions against Kurdish opposition groups despite the deal, maintaining pressure on KDPI.
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International humanitarian organizations will publicly call for emergency access to deliver generator maintenance supplies to Nasser Medical Complex within 30 days.
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Gulf states will publicly express security concerns about the US-Iran deal within 30 days, with at least one state signaling a potential normalization with Iran.
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The ceasefire will partially hold for 90 days, but will be violated by at least one significant incident involving Hezbollah or Iranian-backed militias within the same period.
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Israel will intensify diplomatic efforts to undermine the US-Iran deal over the next 90 days, including lobbying US Congress and European allies.
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The US will increase diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran to dismantle proxy militias in Iraq and Lebanon over the next 30 days, without a breakthrough on Hezbollah.
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The Greek PM's warning and Zisser's critique will fuel a broader European reconsideration of diplomatic approaches to Israel, with some EU states publicly expressing unease.
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Israel will seek to counter the railway deal by accelerating diplomatic and economic ties with Greece and Cyprus.
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Iran will conduct at least one more Strait of Hormuz transit announcement or military demonstration within 30 days, following the pattern of the 28-ship transit and drone downing.
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Hezbollah will increase the frequency of cross-border attacks, with at least three incidents reported within 30 days, following the Iran deal momentum.
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The number of reported settler attacks on Palestinian agricultural lands will increase by at least 10% compared to the same period last year, following the camel release incident.