Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
105 forecasts
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The IDF will demolish the home of terrorist Kadri Samara in Bidu within 7 days, following the completed mapping of the home. Reference class: IDF home demolitions for attackers who killed an Israeli civilian (2020-2025); base rate ~85% within 7 days of mapping. Confidence adjusted down due to potential legal challenges or operational delays.
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Saudi Arabia will conduct at least one more airstrike in Taiz province within 30 days, as the Houthi advance near Bab al-Mandeb continues. Reference class: Saudi airstrikes in Taiz (2020-2025); base rate ~60% per month during active Houthi offensives. Confidence adjusted up due to the confirmed Houthi advance and Saudi airstrikes on the Al-Barah Bridge.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more engagement with IRGC naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
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The EL GAIA tanker explosion in the Strait of Hormuz will not lead to a significant disruption in global oil shipping through the strait within 7 days, as the incident appears isolated.
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The IDF will not withdraw from the Ali Taher ridge in southern Lebanon within 30 days, maintaining its stated position to enforce presence. Reference class: Israeli military hold operations in southern Lebanon (2000-2025); base rate ~85% for holding ground for 30 days after a public statement. Confidence adjusted down due to potential US or Lebanese pressure. Reference class: Israeli military hold operations in southern Lebanon (2000-2025); base rate ~85% for holding ground for 30 days after a public statement.
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The IDF will conduct at least one additional surprise drill in a different division within 30 days, following the pattern of the Judea and Samaria drill and the recent General Staff exercise Dawn 2.0.
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The Houthis will consolidate control over at least one additional Red Sea port city within 90 days, leveraging Iranian arms and the absence of direct US strikes. Reference class: Houthi territorial gains in Red Sea coastal areas since 2021; base rate ~70% for a new port capture per year. Confidence adjusted down because Trump's refusal may push Saudi Arabia toward alternative deterrence measures.
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The IDF will announce a new policy regarding reservist exemptions for mental health reasons within the next 30 days, following the Ben Gurion Airport arrest. Reference class: IDF policy changes after high-profile reservist incidents (2015-2025); base rate ~45% for a policy announcement within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the public nature of the arrest and the attorney's claims.
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The internal debate in Iran over the Strait of Hormuz strategy will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Iranian official publicly questioning the policy. Reference class: Iranian strategic debates (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for a public policy question within 30 days of a reported internal debate. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit framing in the atoms.
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The IDF will not announce the closure of any ammunition production lines within the next 30 days, despite the warning letter, as the government will likely provide a short-term budget extension to avoid immediate shutdown. Reference class: Israeli defense budget crises (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for short-term stopgap funding. Confidence adjusted up due to the public nature of the warning and political pressure.
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The US will reduce the tempo of its military strikes against Iran within 30 days, as the unsustainable campaign assessment forces operational adjustments.
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The Treasury will transfer at least part of the 15 billion shekels in agreed defense funds within 30 days, as the security establishment's warnings about the budget gap intensify.
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The IDF will not receive the full 12+3 billion shekel transfer by the Rosh Hashanah deadline of September 11, leading to a partial halt in reserve duty call-ups within 30 days.
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The IDF will publicly report at least one additional strike on a Hamas weapons production site within 30 days, as intelligence confirms renewed independent production.
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The IDF will publicly announce at least one specific tactical change in Lebanon within 30 days, following the Northern Command's operational shift.
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Greece will announce at least one additional Patriot battery relocation within 30 days, citing the Iranian threat.
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IDF strikes on Hezbollah command infrastructure in southern Lebanon will continue at a rate of at least one per week over the next 30 days.
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The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
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The United States will conduct at least one more interdiction of a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Iran within 30 days.
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Hamas will hand over fewer than 1,000 Kalashnikovs to international monitors within 30 days, far short of the 60-70 thousand estimated.
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The IDF will resume targeted killings of Nukhba terrorists within 30 days, citing operational necessity.
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Over the next 30 days, the IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one more Hezbollah drone attack on its forces in southern Lebanon, following the pattern of initial concealment.
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The number of Israeli civilian border-crossing incidents into Lebanon will decline over the next 30 days as the IDF increases patrols and police enforcement.
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Over the next 30 days, the Houthis will claim responsibility for at least two more attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden or Red Sea.
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Over the next 30 days, the US will continue to reduce its military footprint in bases near Iran, with at least one additional public report of aircraft or personnel relocation.
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The number of seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will decrease by at least 20% over the next 90 days, as evacuation efforts continue or the strait partially reopens.
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The US will increase the number of destroyers in the Mediterranean to at least four within 30 days, responding to the naval shortage warning.
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The IDF will conduct at least one additional controlled demolition of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days, following the Beaufort operation.
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The IDF will announce new disciplinary measures for unauthorized base departures within 30 days, following the Givati mutiny.
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NATO will publicly confirm enhanced air patrols over Poland within 7 days following the Russian missile incursion.
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Russia will launch a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine within 7 days, as warned by Zelensky and reported by Ukrainian sources.
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Within 90 days, the Houthis will announce or implement a fee for ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb, following discussions with Iran.
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The IDF will announce a reduction in counterterrorism battalion strength in the West Bank within 30 days due to diversion to outpost enforcement.
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Iran-aligned militias in Iraq will launch at least one more drone or missile attack against Saudi Arabia within 30 days.
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The number of Hezbollah drone incursions into Israeli airspace will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 90 days.
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The IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one incident of reservists using physical force against Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria within 30 days.
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The IDF will face increased pressure to reclassify the Samaria incident as a battle rather than 'operational activity' within 90 days.
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Iranian oil revenues will continue to flow despite the US naval blockade, with at least one new report of a tanker breaching the blockade within 30 days.
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The US will announce a new military deployment to the Persian Gulf within 30 days in response to Iranian threats.
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The IDF will expand its operation in Judea and Samaria beyond current reinforcement within 30 days, despite Chief of Staff Zamir's earlier opposition.
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The IDF will announce at least one more targeted elimination of a Hamas commander in Gaza within 7 days.
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The US will announce a new arms production initiative for long-range missiles within 30 days.
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CENTCOM will announce at least one more wave of strikes against Iranian military targets within 7 days.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation into the incident of five Israeli citizens crossing into Syria within 7 days.
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The IDF will report achieving the collapse of nearly 100% of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
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Additional US fighter squadrons will deploy to Jordan or Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of the F-16 squadron arrival.
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US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, targeting additional economic nodes beyond Bandar Abbas.
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The IDF will announce a formal investigation or disciplinary action against the soldier who criticized General Bluth within 30 days.
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The IDF will secure an alternative procurement of attack helicopters within 90 days to compensate for the missed Apache deal.
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Iran will retaliate for the US airstrike that killed seven servicemen within 30 days, likely through a proxy attack on US or Israeli targets.