Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
60 forecasts
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The IDF will not carry out the unspecified military action 'relating to Iran' that Netanyahu reportedly pushed for within 30 days.
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The Israeli security cabinet will approve a significant expansion of military operations in the West Bank within 30 days, including large-scale raids and arrests, but will stop short of a full-scale campaign to dismantle the Palestinian Authority.
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The IDF will issue additional reserve duty orders exceeding 60 days for at least one battalion within 30 days, reflecting sustained operational pressure.
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Russia will continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities at a rate of at least one multi-wave attack every 72 hours over the next 7 days.
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The United States and Israel will not publicly announce a new joint strike operation against Iran before the US midterm elections on November 3, with any disclosed planning slipping past that date.
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Israel will conduct at least one further long-range aerial maneuver or strike exercise toward Iran's border that is disclosed by a named US or Israeli official, extending the advance-notice pattern.
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Hezbollah will maintain or increase its publicly reported alert posture in Lebanon over the next 30 days, with at least one additional named Lebanese outlet reporting heightened readiness or troop movement.
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The IDF will conduct at least one publicly acknowledged airstrike against an Iranian-linked target in Syria within the next 30 days.
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Yemeni government forces will announce at least one additional major offensive operation against Houthi positions in Taiz within the next 7 days.
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Morocco will deploy at least 200 troops to the ISF in Gaza within 90 days.
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The Red Team's kidnapping-thwarting drills will be extended beyond the Gaza Strip to at least one additional front or command within 30 days, indicated by a named IDF announcement or a report citing a named officer.
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The IDF will launch at least one further interceptor against an aerial target over or near southern Lebanon within 30 days, sustaining the pattern of the past 48 hours rather than a single isolated incident.
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The Pentagon's CENTCOM preparation order will be followed within 30 days by at least one additional publicly reported US force-posture or readiness adjustment tied to Iran, rather than remaining a single internal instruction.
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The American company approved to map Hamas weapons-handover sites in southern Gaza will not complete a documented, publicly reported handover of rifles or weapons for destruction within 30 days.
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No Israeli strike on Iran will be publicly confirmed by the IDF or the White House within 90 days, as Zamir's block on the US-demanded operation holds.
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The Pentagon's three-day intensive strike plan against Iran will remain unexecuted within 90 days, as Trump's rejection of five extensive operations proposals indicates sustained political restraint. Reference class: US military strike plans against Iran (2019-2026); base rate ~20% for execution within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Trump's track record of rejecting such plans.
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The IDF will revise its PTSD freeze policy within 90 days, following the High Court petition by 117 reservists.
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The IDF citation review for October 7 battles will result in at least 10 citations being awarded within 30 days.
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NATO will issue a formal statement condemning the drone attack on commercial ships near the Bulgarian coast within 30 days, as the first such incident in NATO territorial waters demands a collective response.
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Iran will publicly test-fire a missile with a range exceeding 1,000 km within 90 days, as the IRGC's announced expansion moves from planning to demonstration. Reference class: IRGC missile tests following public range-expansion pledges (2015-2026); base rate ~60% for a test within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit 'work has already begun' phrasing in the announcement.
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The IDF will release a formal investigation into the security breach at the outpost between Quneitra and Khader within 30 days, as the incident raises operational questions. Reference class: IDF investigations of security breaches at border outposts (2023-2026); base rate ~55% for a published report within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Maariv's ongoing coverage and the unusual nature of a terrorist reaching the outpost entrance.
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The IDF will announce at least one additional major submarine procurement or construction contract within 90 days, as Netanyahu's stated ambition for naval leadership and the arrival of the sixth submarine signal a sustained investment trajectory.
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The number of IDF soldiers killed in operational accidents (non-combat) will increase by at least 50% within 90 days, as the prolonged deployment under Order 8 increases fatigue and risk.
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The number of foreign nationals detained in the West Bank for security-related provocations will increase by at least 50% within 90 days, as security forces intensify operations. Reference class: Detentions of foreign nationals in the West Bank (2025-2026); base rate ~40% for a 50% increase over 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the recent detention of four individuals and the stated policy of zero tolerance.
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The US will conduct at least one airstrike against Iranian-backed targets in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, as the buildup of naval assets and Trump's ultimatum increase the likelihood of confrontation.
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The dispute between Battalion 601 soldiers and Colonel Schneider over leave cancellations will lead to a formal complaint to the Personnel Directorate or a public statement from the soldiers within 30 days. Reference class: IDF soldier protests over conditions (2020-2026); base rate ~55% for a formal complaint within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the Personnel Directorate's expressed dissatisfaction with the brigade commander's position.
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Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, as winter approaches and power outages resume in Uman.
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Hamas will carry out at least one attack against IDF forces in the Gaza Strip within 30 days that results in Israeli casualties, despite ongoing targeted killings.
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The US will not publicly confirm or deny Iran's claim of capturing a second American AUV in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Reference class: US responses to Iranian maritime capture claims (2019-2026); base rate ~55% for no public confirmation or denial within 30 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the lack of independent evidence and the potential for the claim to be denied as propaganda.
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The IDF will release a formal investigation report on the drone explosion incident within 30 days, citing safety protocol failures. Reference class: IDF internal investigations of fatal accidents (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for report within 30 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the involvement of a brigadier general-led team which may extend the timeline.
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The IDF will neutralize at least 10 additional kilometers of underground routes in the northern Gaza Strip within 90 days, continuing the current operational tempo. Reference class: IDF tunnel neutralization rates in northern Gaza (Oct 2023–Sep 2025); base rate ~8.7 km/month. Confidence adjusted down due to diminishing returns as the campaign matures.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more battalion-level raid in the West Bank within 30 days, following the activation of Division 98 and the 'Times of Joy' operation.
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The IDF will not receive the full 25 billion shekels additional budget within 90 days, as Treasury reluctance during an election period and the unresolved gap from July's 15-billion-shekel agreement will delay a multi-year commitment.
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Iran will complete additional fortification work at the Mount Makoush complex, as satellite images show ongoing earth-moving activity, within 90 days. Reference class: Iran's underground facility fortification cycles (2020-2025); base rate ~80% for observable work continuing over a 90-day window. Confidence adjusted down slightly due to potential diplomatic pause ahead of UNGA.
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The US will announce a formal agreement to station additional refueling aircraft at an alternative Israeli airfield (e.g., Nevatim or Ovda) within 90 days of the Ramon nighttime curfew.
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The IDF will announce the elimination of at least one more battalion-level commander in the Gaza Strip within 90 days.
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The IDF will publicly announce the destruction of at least one more significant Hezbollah tunnel network in southern Lebanon within 90 days, beyond the Ali al-Taher ridge.
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The Yemeni government counteroffensive will not retake Sana'a from the Houthis within 90 days, but will make territorial gains in at least one of the four governorates mentioned.
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The Houthi attacks on Saudi cities will not trigger a formal activation of the Mecca Agreement's military clause within 90 days, as Pakistan will prefer diplomatic pressure.
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The IDF will formally integrate the new unmanned systems and AI branch into operational command structures within 90 days of its Hanukkah inauguration, with at least one documented combat use of a new AI-directed drone. Reference class: IDF branch integration timelines after formal establishment (2015-2025); base rate ~50% for documented combat use within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the existing operational tempo and the Iran strike precedent.
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The number of violent incidents in the southern Hebron Hills will decrease over the next 90 days, as the arrest of 13 suspects disrupts the local network. Reference class: Israeli police crackdowns on organized violence in the West Bank (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for a temporary reduction in incidents within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of retaliatory attacks.
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The IDF will confirm the elimination of the remaining 10-15 Hezbollah terrorists in the Ali Taher ridge tunnels within 90 days, as the siege and military activity continue. Reference class: IDF tunnel clearance operations in southern Lebanon (2024-2025); base rate ~70% for full clearance within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the difficulty of confirming kills in tunnel networks.
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Iran will increase its naval reconnaissance and harassment operations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea within 90 days, leveraging the resurrected general's plans.
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The number of investigations into IDF medication trafficking will increase over the next 90 days following the arrest of pharmacist Victoria Motola, as authorities expand their probe into the Glilot base pharmacy network.
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The number of military police investigations into looting in Gaza and Lebanon will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days, as the gap between Chief of Staff Zamir's public condemnation and the low indictment rate draws media scrutiny.
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The US will announce a partial drawdown of troops from CENTCOM within 90 days, as the fleet readiness crisis forces reallocation to other theaters.
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Hezbollah will not begin a substantive disarmament process within 90 days, as linking it to Hamas/Islamic Jihad disarmament provides a delaying mechanism.
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NATO will announce a formal plan to shift more defense responsibilities to European members within 90 days, following Colby's push.
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Turkey's naval buildup, including the construction of 47 warships, will lead to at least one public diplomatic protest from a NATO ally (e.g., Greece, France) within 90 days.
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No new mine-laying incidents will be reported in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days, following Trump's threat of destruction.