Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
165 forecasts
-
The IDF will announce at least one more targeted elimination of a Hamas commander in Gaza within 7 days.
-
The US will announce a new arms production initiative for long-range missiles within 30 days.
-
CENTCOM will announce at least one more wave of strikes against Iranian military targets within 7 days.
-
The IDF will announce a formal investigation into the incident of five Israeli citizens crossing into Syria within 7 days.
-
The IDF will report achieving the collapse of nearly 100% of Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
-
Additional US fighter squadrons will deploy to Jordan or Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of the F-16 squadron arrival.
-
US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, targeting additional economic nodes beyond Bandar Abbas.
-
The IDF will announce a formal investigation or disciplinary action against the soldier who criticized General Bluth within 30 days.
-
The IDF will secure an alternative procurement of attack helicopters within 90 days to compensate for the missed Apache deal.
-
Iran will retaliate for the US airstrike that killed seven servicemen within 30 days, likely through a proxy attack on US or Israeli targets.
-
The IDF will announce measures to address the transport vehicle shortage in Gaza reserve brigades within 30 days, following public criticism.
-
The IDF will increase enforcement along the Syrian border to prevent civilian crossings, following the detention of activists and the 'Pioneers of Bashan' incident.
-
Houthi attacks on Saudi targets will continue, with at least one more missile or drone strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility within 30 days.
-
The IDF will continue airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons storage sites in southern Lebanon over the next 30 days, as diplomatic efforts to implement the June 26 withdrawal agreement stall.
-
The IDF will continue to reduce reserve soldier call-ups, with numbers dropping below 50,000 within 30 days, as financial constraints persist.
-
IDF operations in Gaza will continue at current tempo, with at least one more targeted killing of a mid-level militant commander within 30 days.
-
US-Iran military exchanges will continue with at least one more round of strikes within 7 days.
-
Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure will intensify over the next 30 days, as Russia seeks to exploit delays in Western air defense deliveries.
-
The IDF will proceed with the discharge of 10,000 reservists by end of July, but may face internal pushback from operational commanders.
-
The IDF will not implement the proposed cuts to Home Front Command soldiers in Judea and Samaria settlements within 30 days, due to internal opposition from regional leaders and security concerns.
-
The IDF's disciplinary action against the soldiers who bound a Palestinian suspect will lead to a formal investigation or court-martial within 30 days, amid public pressure.
-
The IDF will continue targeted strikes in Gaza, eliminating at least one more mid-level militant commander within 7 days.
-
The classified phone lost in Syria will be recovered or its compromise confirmed within 30 days, leading to operational changes.
-
IDF will continue targeted strikes in southern Lebanon despite the framework agreement, citing preemptive self-defense.
-
The IDF will face increasing internal tension over gender integration in combat units, with more yeshiva students refusing to serve alongside female soldiers.
-
IDF ground operations in southern Lebanon will continue at a reduced tempo over the next 7 days, with no major new incursions reported.
-
The IDF will extend mandatory service to 36 months within 30 days to address the projected 12,000-fighter deficit.
-
The IDF will report a violation of the new proactive fire ban by a unit in Lebanon within 7 days, leading to an internal investigation.
-
The Indian Army will order additional Meprolight optics for other weapon systems within 30 days, following the Negev selection.
-
The IDF will announce an internal review or new security protocols for AI tools built by soldiers within 7 days following the TheMarker investigation.
-
Israel will conduct another targeted killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon within 30 days.
-
Iran will not launch a direct ballistic missile attack on Israel within 30 days, but will increase proxy actions via Hezbollah and Hamas.
-
Hezbollah will increase drone and rocket launches toward northern Israel in response to the Beirut strike and Daqdouq elimination, causing more civilian casualties or IDF interceptions.
-
Engineering challenges will delay the demolition of Hezbollah's tunnel city under Beaufort Castle by at least 7 days beyond the initial timeline.
-
US military will shoot down additional Iranian drones targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days.
-
Russia will commission additional military infrastructure within 90 km of the Finnish border within 90 days, as detected by satellite imagery.
-
The IDF will expand operations to the Zaharani River line within 30 days, as part of a containment strategy.
-
Over the next 30 days, the debate over integrating women into the Armored Corps will escalate, leading to either a formal policy revision or a wider coalition crisis.
-
IDF will maintain operational pressure in southern Lebanon without an immediate political decision on Nabatieh, limiting major advances for the next 7 days.
-
US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days as Trump seeks to force a diplomatic deal.
-
US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days, but will not expand into a full-scale operation as Trump seeks to maintain diplomatic options.
-
Iran will launch at least one more missile or drone salvo toward Israel within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the IDF's preparation for further fire.
-
The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, following the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
-
Hezbollah will launch additional rockets or drones at northern Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of tit-for-tat strikes.
-
The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, despite the current quiet, as part of the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
-
Hezbollah will retaliate for the Beirut strike with a significant cross-border attack within 30 days, given the new Israeli policy of striking Beirut without limits.
-
The IDF will face increasing public and legal pressure to release data on ultra-Orthodox conscription within 30 days, potentially leading to a court order.
-
Israeli arrest campaigns in the West Bank will continue at a similar or higher frequency over the next 7 days, targeting at least one academic or public figure.
-
Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the pattern of daily violations and the IDF's admission of no hermetic solution.
-
Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given the release of tank-attack footage and the IDF's continued strikes.