Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
124 forecasts
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Iran will launch at least one more missile or drone salvo toward Israel within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the IDF's preparation for further fire.
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US defensive strikes on Iran will continue over the next 7 days, but will not expand into a full-scale operation as Trump seeks to maintain diplomatic options.
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Hezbollah will launch additional rockets or drones at northern Israel within 7 days, following the pattern of tit-for-tat strikes.
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The IDF will conduct at least one more strike on the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut within 30 days, despite the current quiet, as part of the new policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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Hezbollah will retaliate for the Beirut strike with a significant cross-border attack within 30 days, given the new Israeli policy of striking Beirut without limits.
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The IDF will face increasing public and legal pressure to release data on ultra-Orthodox conscription within 30 days, potentially leading to a court order.
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Israeli arrest campaigns in the West Bank will continue at a similar or higher frequency over the next 7 days, targeting at least one academic or public figure.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the pattern of daily violations and the IDF's admission of no hermetic solution.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given the release of tank-attack footage and the IDF's continued strikes.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile or drone attack targeting US or allied forces in the Gulf within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire.
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Hezbollah will conduct at least one cross-border attack within 7 days, given Qassem's rejection of the ceasefire and the drone strike on UNIFIL.
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Hezbollah will not cease fire south of the Litani River within 7 days, despite the US-announced ceasefire agreement.
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Hezbollah will launch at least one more cross-border rocket or drone attack within 7 days, given the IDF's expanded operations and the pattern of daily violations.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile towards a US target in the Gulf within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one drone attack against IDF forces or northern Israel within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the recent siren activations.
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Ukraine will launch another drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure within 7 days.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one drone attack against IDF forces or northern Israel within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the recent attack wounding four reservists.
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Iran will impose at least one physical inspection or denial of passage on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days, citing the new permission requirement.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border drone attack within 7 days, given the admission of no hermetic solution and the 'rising learning curve'.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, despite Trump's ceasefire claim, given the sirens in Metula hours after his statement.
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Iran will launch at least one more ballistic missile towards a US target in the Gulf within 7 days, following the pattern of the intercepted missiles over Kuwait.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, following the pattern of recent barrages and the Beaufort capture.
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Hezbollah will carry out at least one cross-border attack (rocket or drone) within 7 days, following the pattern of recent sirens and security warnings.