Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
165 forecasts
-
The number of violent incidents in the southern Hebron Hills will decrease over the next 90 days, as the arrest of 13 suspects disrupts the local network. Reference class: Israeli police crackdowns on organized violence in the West Bank (2020-2025); base rate ~70% for a temporary reduction in incidents within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of retaliatory attacks.
-
The IDF will confirm the elimination of the remaining 10-15 Hezbollah terrorists in the Ali Taher ridge tunnels within 90 days, as the siege and military activity continue. Reference class: IDF tunnel clearance operations in southern Lebanon (2024-2025); base rate ~70% for full clearance within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the difficulty of confirming kills in tunnel networks.
-
Iran will increase its naval reconnaissance and harassment operations in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea within 90 days, leveraging the resurrected general's plans.
-
The number of investigations into IDF medication trafficking will increase over the next 90 days following the arrest of pharmacist Victoria Motola, as authorities expand their probe into the Glilot base pharmacy network.
-
The number of military police investigations into looting in Gaza and Lebanon will increase by at least 50% over the next 90 days, as the gap between Chief of Staff Zamir's public condemnation and the low indictment rate draws media scrutiny.
-
The US will announce a partial drawdown of troops from CENTCOM within 90 days, as the fleet readiness crisis forces reallocation to other theaters.
-
The US will reduce the tempo of its military strikes against Iran within 30 days, as the unsustainable campaign assessment forces operational adjustments.
-
The Treasury will transfer at least part of the 15 billion shekels in agreed defense funds within 30 days, as the security establishment's warnings about the budget gap intensify.
-
Hezbollah will not begin a substantive disarmament process within 90 days, as linking it to Hamas/Islamic Jihad disarmament provides a delaying mechanism.
-
The IDF will not receive the full 12+3 billion shekel transfer by the Rosh Hashanah deadline of September 11, leading to a partial halt in reserve duty call-ups within 30 days.
-
NATO will announce a formal plan to shift more defense responsibilities to European members within 90 days, following Colby's push.
-
Turkey's naval buildup, including the construction of 47 warships, will lead to at least one public diplomatic protest from a NATO ally (e.g., Greece, France) within 90 days.
-
No new mine-laying incidents will be reported in the Strait of Hormuz within 90 days, following Trump's threat of destruction.
-
The IDF will publicly report at least one additional strike on a Hamas weapons production site within 30 days, as intelligence confirms renewed independent production.
-
The IDF will deploy at least one additional regular brigade to the West Bank within 90 days, as concerns over a third intifada persist.
-
The use of AI-directed autonomous drones in combat will be reported in at least one new conflict zone within 90 days, following the precedent set in Ukraine.
-
The IDF will publicly announce at least one specific tactical change in Lebanon within 30 days, following the Northern Command's operational shift.
-
Qatar will take delivery of at least one Boeing KC-46A tanker within 90 days of the US approval, despite Israeli objections.
-
Greece will announce at least one additional Patriot battery relocation within 30 days, citing the Iranian threat.
-
IDF strikes on Hezbollah command infrastructure in southern Lebanon will continue at a rate of at least one per week over the next 30 days.
-
The US will resume strikes on Iranian targets within 30 days if the ceasefire expires without a new agreement.
-
Russia and North Korea will announce or conduct a joint military exercise within 90 days, building on their new agreement.
-
The IDF will maintain control of the Ali Tahar ridge for at least 90 days, with no reported Hezbollah re-capture.
-
The United States will conduct at least one more interdiction of a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Iran within 30 days.
-
Iran's newly appointed IRGC commanders will initiate at least one major military exercise or operation within 90 days, signaling continuity of deterrence.
-
The INS Dragon will arrive in Israel within 90 days, as announced, but will not be operational before 2027.
-
Hamas will hand over fewer than 1,000 Kalashnikovs to international monitors within 30 days, far short of the 60-70 thousand estimated.
-
The IDF will resume targeted killings of Nukhba terrorists within 30 days, citing operational necessity.
-
Over the next 30 days, the IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one more Hezbollah drone attack on its forces in southern Lebanon, following the pattern of initial concealment.
-
The number of Israeli civilian border-crossing incidents into Lebanon will decline over the next 30 days as the IDF increases patrols and police enforcement.
-
Over the next 30 days, the Houthis will claim responsibility for at least two more attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden or Red Sea.
-
The number of Israeli strikes in Gaza will decline by at least 20% over the next 30 days compared to the previous 30 days, as the new approval requirement takes effect.
-
Over the next 30 days, the US will continue to reduce its military footprint in bases near Iran, with at least one additional public report of aircraft or personnel relocation.
-
The number of seafarers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will decrease by at least 20% over the next 90 days, as evacuation efforts continue or the strait partially reopens.
-
The US will increase the number of destroyers in the Mediterranean to at least four within 30 days, responding to the naval shortage warning.
-
The reserve manpower shortage in southern Lebanon will become more acute, with at least one additional brigade reporting understaffing in official channels within 90 days.
-
The IDF will conduct at least one additional controlled demolition of Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 30 days, following the Beaufort operation.
-
The IDF will announce new disciplinary measures for unauthorized base departures within 30 days, following the Givati mutiny.
-
NATO will publicly confirm enhanced air patrols over Poland within 7 days following the Russian missile incursion.
-
Russia will launch a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine within 7 days, as warned by Zelensky and reported by Ukrainian sources.
-
The IDF will publicly disclose evidence linking Hezbollah's ceasefire violations to Iranian direction within 90 days.
-
Within 90 days, the Houthis will announce or implement a fee for ships passing through Bab el-Mandeb, following discussions with Iran.
-
The IDF will announce a reduction in counterterrorism battalion strength in the West Bank within 30 days due to diversion to outpost enforcement.
-
Iran-aligned militias in Iraq will launch at least one more drone or missile attack against Saudi Arabia within 30 days.
-
The number of Hezbollah drone incursions into Israeli airspace will increase by at least 50% compared to the previous 90 days.
-
The IDF will publicly acknowledge at least one incident of reservists using physical force against Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria within 30 days.
-
The IDF will face increased pressure to reclassify the Samaria incident as a battle rather than 'operational activity' within 90 days.
-
Iranian oil revenues will continue to flow despite the US naval blockade, with at least one new report of a tanker breaching the blockade within 30 days.
-
The US will announce a new military deployment to the Persian Gulf within 30 days in response to Iranian threats.
-
The IDF will expand its operation in Judea and Samaria beyond current reinforcement within 30 days, despite Chief of Staff Zamir's earlier opposition.