Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
70 forecasts
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The prosecution will appeal the six-year sentence in the Kard case within 30 days, citing the disparity with the 15-year request.
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The Shfaram shooting case will result in an indictment with a criminal (non-nationalist) motive within 90 days, as reported.
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An indictment will be filed against the East Jerusalem stalking suspect by August 3, 2026, as expected.
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The News 12 investigation into abuse at the Prime Minister's residence will lead to a formal inquiry or police investigation within 90 days.
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The lawsuit filed by former residence employee Y. will lead to a formal investigation or court hearing within 90 days.
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The soldier arrested for shooting the Palestinian child will face formal charges within 30 days, given the IDF's stated investigation.
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The Knesset will hold a new vote for state comptroller within 30 days, but the coalition will face internal dissent over candidate selection.
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The investigation into the kindergarten abuse case in Kiryat Gat will lead to additional charges against staff beyond the owner, including for obstruction.
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The debate over arrest legality in public safety cases will intensify, with at least one court ruling explicitly addressing warrantless rooftop arrests within 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will comply with the Elections Committee order to remove the video within 7 days, avoiding further legal escalation.
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The Gur Levi affair will see at least one additional complaint filed within 30 days.
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The High Court will rule that the Attorney General must be investigated for conflict of interest in the Sde Teiman affair within 90 days.
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The bungee instructor case in Brazil will see at least one suspect charged with homicide, not just manslaughter, within 30 days.
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The Rehovot patricide suspect will be found unfit for detention due to mental illness within 7 days, leading to hospitalization.
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The Telegram pedophilia case will expand further, with additional arrests beyond the current 12 within 30 days.
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The complaint against police spokesperson Aryeh Doron will lead to an internal investigation or disciplinary action within 90 days.
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Gur Levy will be convicted of invasion of privacy but acquitted of rape, given his admission to filming and denial of rape.
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The 'Russian Scam' case will expand, with additional indictments filed within 30 days as authorities target the network's organizers.
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The Israel Securities Authority will issue a public statement on Victory's compliance with disclosure rules within 7 days.
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Amir Maron will be released on bail within 7 days despite incitement charges.