Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
70 forecasts
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The conviction of one defendant in the submarine affair for mediation for bribery will lead to at least one additional defendant in the case seeking a plea deal within 30 days.
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The Attorney General's office will file or join at least one formal request to a court or government body seeking to revoke or condition financial benefits tied to yeshiva students or draft evaders within 30 days.
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The Be'er Sheva Magistrate's Court will extend contractor detentions in the IDF fraud case at least once more, or the state will file an indictment, within 30 days.
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The investigation into the foiled Highway 1 attack will lead to at least one indictment within the next 30 days.
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The witness-tampering investigation involving Commissioner Alona Shoshan will result in at least one formal charging decision or a closed-file notice from the investigating body within 90 days.
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The Israel Police will face at least one formal complaint or petition to the High Court of Justice regarding its failure to respond to gunfire incidents in Moshav Azriel within 30 days.
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The prosecution will appeal the lenient indictment in the Ma'ale Adumim case within 30 days, citing the suspect's explicit threat to carry out an attack.
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David Abuaziz will be sentenced to life imprisonment within 30 days, given the aggravating circumstances of the murder conviction and his prior life sentence.
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German prosecutors will file formal charges against at least one of the two teenage suspects in the Cologne robot incident within 30 days.
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The Attorney General's office or the State Attorney will publish a formal response to Netanyahu's demand for prosecution over the film 'NAZA' before the 27 October election.
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The gag order on the Samaria security personnel arrest will be partially lifted or formally challenged in a published court ruling within 30 days, as Honenu's appeal to the Lod District Court forces a judicial response.
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The detention of the 19-year-old suspect in the Be'er Sheva vehicle arson will be extended at least once beyond Monday as police pursue the obstruction concern.
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The criminal investigation into Idan David will result in a formal indictment within 90 days. Reference class: Israeli white-collar crime cases involving resume fraud (2018-2025); base rate ~65% for indictment within 90 days of questioning. Confidence adjusted up due to the prior finding by the Committee for the Examination of Appointments that David presented a false representation.
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The Portuguese investigation into the legality of US use of Lajes Air Base will not result in a formal suspension of the authorization within 30 days.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue a formal warning or reprimand to Yiska Haimov for her participation in the incident with Mordechai David within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass a law formally codifying the new disqualification criteria for candidates within 90 days, despite the Abu Shahada case.
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The FBI investigation into the alleged Houthi material support by Ashton Hamed Ellaboudy will not result in a guilty plea within 90 days, given the complexity of the case and the use of an official passport. Reference class: U.S. federal terrorism finance cases (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for guilty plea within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the defendant's former DOE employment and potential classified evidence issues.
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The US Supreme Court will not grant the Tennessee Attorney General's appeal to reinstate Christa Pike's execution within 30 days.
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The indictment of Rabbi Shmueli will not lead to a conviction for incitement to violence within 90 days, as the defense will argue his statements were protected religious speech. Reference class: Israeli incitement prosecutions against religious figures (2010-2025); base rate ~40% for conviction within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the difficulty of proving direct incitement to violence from a prayer-like statement.
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The Supreme Court will reject Lt. Col. A's appeal to prevent the disclosure of his identity within 30 days, upholding the lower court's ruling that public interest outweighs privacy. Reference class: Israeli Supreme Court rulings on military gag orders and privacy (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for upholding lower court decisions in national security cases. Confidence adjusted up due to Judge Vardi's explicit finding of massive prior publicity.
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The police request for an additional extension of Eyal Nager's arrest will be approved by the court within 30 days.
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The investigation into the Prinok affair will expand to include additional supermarket branches or suspects within 90 days.
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The investigation of the child-marriage activist will result in an indictment within 30 days, given Judge Melamed's ruling that the suspicion remains at high intensity. Reference class: Israeli investigations of public figures for familial offenses (2018-2025); base rate ~55% for indictment within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the judge's explicit finding of danger and the existence of a signed contract as concrete evidence.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a final ruling on the Police Internal Investigations Department Law within 30 days, likely striking it down or requiring significant amendments.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a temporary injunction requiring the advisory committee to provide security for Yair Golan within 90 days, given the police's own high risk assessment.
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The Haifa District Attorney's Office will file additional charges against Khamis Suaed within 90 days, expanding the indictment beyond the initial ISIS-related offenses.
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The frozen NIS 400,000 in the Haifa District Court rape compensation ruling will remain frozen for at least 30 days, with no appeal or payment order issued. Reference class: Israeli civil compensation rulings with frozen portions (2017-2024); base rate ~55% for no change within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the case and the defendant's likely financial constraints.
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Yair Golan will file a defamation lawsuit against Sara Netanyahu within 30 days if she does not issue a public apology.
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The compensation ruling for the middle school student attacked by classmates will not be appealed by the municipality within 30 days, despite its claim the attack was a 'prank.'
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The Trump administration will appeal Judge Wise's ruling on visa revocations for pro-Palestinian activity within 90 days, escalating the constitutional challenge.
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The parole board's decision to reduce Monder Issa's sentence will face a formal appeal by the state or the victim's family within 30 days.
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The Supreme Court will issue a final ruling on the Tomer-Yerushalmi case transfer within 30 days, either upholding the freeze or allowing the transfer to proceed.
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The debate over community reconciliation processes in criminal sentencing will gain public attention, with at least one op-ed or news analysis piece in a major Israeli outlet discussing the Tsegai case's implications within 30 days.
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The police will not file additional charges against Yuval Goldiak within 30 days, given the early stage of the investigation and the complexity of sex offense cases.
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The Mousawa Center's complaint over the Umm al-Fahm wedding raid will lead to a formal police investigation or disciplinary review within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will not issue a final ruling on the Death Penalty for Terrorists Law petition within 30 days.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the Afula resident for the bus assault within 30 days, given the existing indictment.
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The police will appeal the release of Yossi Mosli within 30 days, leading to a new court hearing.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the police officers who strip-searched Itamar Greenberg within 30 days.
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The Saskatoon egg-throwing case will result in a plea deal or a trial date within 30 days, given the minor nature of the charges.
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The investigation into the Lod stabbing will lead to an arrest within 90 days, given the severity of the injury.
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The investigation into Eldar Dayan's murder will produce at least one new formal step—such as an additional arrest, an indictment, or a charge against Berman or Peretz—within 90 days.
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The prosecution's decision to remove Lin from the Mauda indictment will face a public appeal or additional media scrutiny over the next 30 days.
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The police officer fired for sexual relations with a released woman will face additional legal proceedings or a public appeal within 30 days.
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Chaim Rotter's release to house arrest will face a public challenge or a reported violation within 30 days, given the court's 'high danger' finding.
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The appeal against Ohad Goldberg's promotion will result in a formal review or decision by the Police Internal Investigations Department within 90 days.
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The Al-Bahiri brothers will be convicted on at least one charge of assault or threatening behavior within 90 days.
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Within 90 days, the investigation into Eldar Dayan's death will yield at least one formal charge against a suspect, based on the abandoned car evidence.
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The investigation into the murder of Binyahu Razi will lead to formal charges against at least one additional suspect beyond the three currently detained.
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The real estate fraud investigation involving a former Likud MK will lead to formal charges against at least one suspect within 30 days.