Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
51 forecasts
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The Supreme Court will reject Lt. Col. A's appeal to prevent the disclosure of his identity within 30 days, upholding the lower court's ruling that public interest outweighs privacy. Reference class: Israeli Supreme Court rulings on military gag orders and privacy (2015-2025); base rate ~65% for upholding lower court decisions in national security cases. Confidence adjusted up due to Judge Vardi's explicit finding of massive prior publicity.
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The investigation into the Prinok affair will expand to include additional supermarket branches or suspects within 90 days.
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The police request for an additional extension of Eyal Nager's arrest will be approved by the court within 30 days.
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The investigation of the child-marriage activist will result in an indictment within 30 days, given Judge Melamed's ruling that the suspicion remains at high intensity. Reference class: Israeli investigations of public figures for familial offenses (2018-2025); base rate ~55% for indictment within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the judge's explicit finding of danger and the existence of a signed contract as concrete evidence.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a final ruling on the Police Internal Investigations Department Law within 30 days, likely striking it down or requiring significant amendments.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a temporary injunction requiring the advisory committee to provide security for Yair Golan within 90 days, given the police's own high risk assessment.
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The Haifa District Attorney's Office will file additional charges against Khamis Suaed within 90 days, expanding the indictment beyond the initial ISIS-related offenses.
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The frozen NIS 400,000 in the Haifa District Court rape compensation ruling will remain frozen for at least 30 days, with no appeal or payment order issued. Reference class: Israeli civil compensation rulings with frozen portions (2017-2024); base rate ~55% for no change within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the complexity of the case and the defendant's likely financial constraints.
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Yair Golan will file a defamation lawsuit against Sara Netanyahu within 30 days if she does not issue a public apology.
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The compensation ruling for the middle school student attacked by classmates will not be appealed by the municipality within 30 days, despite its claim the attack was a 'prank.'
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The Trump administration will appeal Judge Wise's ruling on visa revocations for pro-Palestinian activity within 90 days, escalating the constitutional challenge.
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The parole board's decision to reduce Monder Issa's sentence will face a formal appeal by the state or the victim's family within 30 days.
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The Supreme Court will issue a final ruling on the Tomer-Yerushalmi case transfer within 30 days, either upholding the freeze or allowing the transfer to proceed.
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The debate over community reconciliation processes in criminal sentencing will gain public attention, with at least one op-ed or news analysis piece in a major Israeli outlet discussing the Tsegai case's implications within 30 days.
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The police will not file additional charges against Yuval Goldiak within 30 days, given the early stage of the investigation and the complexity of sex offense cases.
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The Mousawa Center's complaint over the Umm al-Fahm wedding raid will lead to a formal police investigation or disciplinary review within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will not issue a final ruling on the Death Penalty for Terrorists Law petition within 30 days.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the Afula resident for the bus assault within 30 days, given the existing indictment.
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The police will appeal the release of Yossi Mosli within 30 days, leading to a new court hearing.
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The prosecution will file an indictment against the police officers who strip-searched Itamar Greenberg within 30 days.
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The Saskatoon egg-throwing case will result in a plea deal or a trial date within 30 days, given the minor nature of the charges.
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The investigation into the Lod stabbing will lead to an arrest within 90 days, given the severity of the injury.
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The investigation into Eldar Dayan's murder will produce at least one new formal step—such as an additional arrest, an indictment, or a charge against Berman or Peretz—within 90 days.
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The prosecution's decision to remove Lin from the Mauda indictment will face a public appeal or additional media scrutiny over the next 30 days.
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The police officer fired for sexual relations with a released woman will face additional legal proceedings or a public appeal within 30 days.
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Chaim Rotter's release to house arrest will face a public challenge or a reported violation within 30 days, given the court's 'high danger' finding.
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The appeal against Ohad Goldberg's promotion will result in a formal review or decision by the Police Internal Investigations Department within 90 days.
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The Al-Bahiri brothers will be convicted on at least one charge of assault or threatening behavior within 90 days.
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Within 90 days, the investigation into Eldar Dayan's death will yield at least one formal charge against a suspect, based on the abandoned car evidence.
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The investigation into the murder of Binyahu Razi will lead to formal charges against at least one additional suspect beyond the three currently detained.
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The real estate fraud investigation involving a former Likud MK will lead to formal charges against at least one suspect within 30 days.
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The prosecution will appeal the six-year sentence in the Kard case within 30 days, citing the disparity with the 15-year request.
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The Shfaram shooting case will result in an indictment with a criminal (non-nationalist) motive within 90 days, as reported.
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An indictment will be filed against the East Jerusalem stalking suspect by August 3, 2026, as expected.
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The News 12 investigation into abuse at the Prime Minister's residence will lead to a formal inquiry or police investigation within 90 days.
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The lawsuit filed by former residence employee Y. will lead to a formal investigation or court hearing within 90 days.
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The soldier arrested for shooting the Palestinian child will face formal charges within 30 days, given the IDF's stated investigation.
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The Knesset will hold a new vote for state comptroller within 30 days, but the coalition will face internal dissent over candidate selection.
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The investigation into the kindergarten abuse case in Kiryat Gat will lead to additional charges against staff beyond the owner, including for obstruction.
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The debate over arrest legality in public safety cases will intensify, with at least one court ruling explicitly addressing warrantless rooftop arrests within 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will comply with the Elections Committee order to remove the video within 7 days, avoiding further legal escalation.
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The Gur Levi affair will see at least one additional complaint filed within 30 days.
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The High Court will rule that the Attorney General must be investigated for conflict of interest in the Sde Teiman affair within 90 days.
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The Rehovot patricide suspect will be found unfit for detention due to mental illness within 7 days, leading to hospitalization.
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The bungee instructor case in Brazil will see at least one suspect charged with homicide, not just manslaughter, within 30 days.
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The Telegram pedophilia case will expand further, with additional arrests beyond the current 12 within 30 days.
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The complaint against police spokesperson Aryeh Doron will lead to an internal investigation or disciplinary action within 90 days.
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Gur Levy will be convicted of invasion of privacy but acquitted of rape, given his admission to filming and denial of rape.
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The 'Russian Scam' case will expand, with additional indictments filed within 30 days as authorities target the network's organizers.
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The Israel Securities Authority will issue a public statement on Victory's compliance with disclosure rules within 7 days.