Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
21 forecasts
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The price of 95-octane gasoline at self-service stations in Israel will rise above 8.5 shekels per liter within 30 days.
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The net outflow of Israelis (leavers minus returnees) will exceed 6,000 in the next 90 days, accelerating from the 5,100 recorded in 2024.
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The Ministry of Finance will formally propose a reform to the insurance commission model within 90 days, reducing the total commissions paid annually.
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The Bank of Israel will leave the interest rate unchanged at its next decision, despite rising inflation expectations.
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The EU will publicly announce a formal timeline for the proposed Chinese import restrictions within 30 days, moving from von der Leyen's announcement to a concrete legislative schedule.
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World sugar prices will remain at least 10% above last year's level within 90 days, sustained by Indian ethanol policy and reduced harvests.
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The price of copper will increase by at least 5% within 30 days, driven by AI data center demand and the fact that an advanced data center requires up to 50,000 tons of copper. Reference class: Copper price movements following major AI infrastructure announcements (2023-2026); base rate ~60% for a 5% increase within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the specific $500 billion Nvidia-SK Hynix deal and the $735 billion in tech capex.
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Israeli tech fundraising in Q4 2026 will not exceed $3.5 billion per month, as the September $2.5 billion pace moderates. Reference class: Israeli tech monthly fundraising (2024-2025); base rate ~$1.8B. Confidence adjusted up due to large September rounds pulling demand forward.
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El Al will not announce a further expansion of its Dubai route network beyond the resumed Tel Aviv-Dubai flights within 90 days. Reference class: Post-conflict route resumptions by El Al (2014-2025); base rate ~55% for no further expansion within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the security uncertainty following the incident on the flight from Dubai.
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The fuel price increase of 52 agorot per liter will lead to at least one official announcement of price increases in a major consumer sector (food, transportation, or housing) within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli fuel price hikes and sectoral price responses (2020-2025); base rate ~65% for a sectoral price increase within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the broad economic fear of a domino effect.
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Iran's floating oil stockpile will remain below 10 million barrels within 90 days, as exports continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Qatar's LNG exports will not recover to 10 million tons per quarter within 90 days, remaining well below pre-decline levels.
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The bank stock index will recover from the 1.5% drop caused by the class action approval within 90 days, as investors price in the low probability of a full NIS 15 billion payout. Reference class: Israeli bank stock reactions to major class action approvals (2010-2025); base rate ~65% for recovery within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the slow pace of class action litigation and the banks' strong capital positions.
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Union Investments will sell its entire 37% stake in Super-Pharm within 90 days, as the Competition Authority condition on the Union-Cal merger forces the sale. Reference class: Israeli corporate divestitures mandated by Competition Authority conditions (2010-2025); base rate ~70% for completion within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to potential buyer search delays. Expected indicators: confirming: Union announces a buyer for the Super-Pharm stake within 90 days; falsifying: Union announces it is unable to find a buyer or seeks an extension within 90 days.
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The divergence between rising national average rents and localized oversupply-driven rent drops will widen over the next 90 days, with at least one more Israeli city reporting a year-over-year decline in new contract rents.
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The Bazan refinery relocation plan will not receive formal government approval within 90 days, given the $5-6 billion cost and the tension with maintaining refining capacity in Haifa.
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The Bank of Israel will hold its interest rate steady for at least the next 90 days, as rising US bond yields constrain the ability to cut despite low local inflation.
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The PanStar Acro's Arctic voyage will be followed by at least one additional commercial transit by a South Korean vessel within 90 days, despite Western concerns.
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Israeli banks will partially reduce but not fully sever correspondent banking ties with Palestinian Authority banks over the next 90 days, as the dilemma between legal risk and economic collapse remains unresolved.
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Hezbollah's monthly salary payments to activists will decline in real value or frequency over the next 90 days, as Iranian funding prioritizes weapons rebuilding.
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The Turkey-Saudi railway project will not be operational within 365 days due to security and financing hurdles.