Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
66 forecasts
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
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Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
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The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The defense budget dispute between the Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry will intensify, with public statements from both sides but no resolution within 30 days.
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Smotrich will face increasing public backlash from hostage families, leading to at least one more high-profile confrontation within 30 days.
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Public pressure on the government to address Arab crime will intensify, with at least one coalition MK publicly calling for a state of emergency in Arab communities.
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The Shin Bet leak investigation will face political interference from coalition members within 7 days.
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The Knesset will advance legislation regulating AI in elections within the next 30 days, following the Constitution Committee's discussion.
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The DSA's primary victories will intensify the pro-Israel establishment's opposition to the DSA, with at least one major Jewish organization publicly launching a campaign against DSA-endorsed candidates within 30 days.
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Internal Likud opposition to Netanyahu's reserved slots demand will grow, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly criticizing the move within 30 days.
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The number of investigation files opened against minors in 2025 will exceed 2,500 by year-end, reflecting a continued rise in youth crime.
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Internal tensions within the Democrats party will intensify, with at least one more senior figure publicly criticizing Yair Golan's leadership within 30 days.
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The controversy over the Shin Bet memorial dismantling will lead to at least one public protest by families of fallen officers within 30 days.
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The Basic Law: Torah Study bill will not pass its final readings within 30 days due to coalition infighting and IDF opposition.
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The closure of northern border emergency response teams will lead to at least one public protest or legal petition by affected residents within 30 days.
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The coalition heads meeting on June 23 will not result in an immediate decision to dissolve the Knesset, but will produce a public statement reaffirming coalition unity.
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Colombia's election result will be officially certified within 7 days, with de la Espriella confirmed as winner despite Cepeda's challenge.
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Coalition internal tensions over the primaries dilemma will intensify, with at least one public threat of a split from a coalition party within 30 days.
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The opposition bloc's polling lead will narrow but remain above 55 seats over the next 30 days.
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The ultra-Orthodox protest movement against conscription will expand, with at least two more large demonstrations in the next 30 days.
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The welfare system crisis will prompt the government to announce a plan to hire at least 500 new social workers within 30 days.
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The Israeli Ministry of Health will issue a recall or safety alert for 'Prinok' brand fruit puree within 30 days, following the benzodiazepine contamination incident.
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Coalition infighting over settler violence and Iran response will intensify, with at least one public resignation or ultimatum from a senior minister within 30 days.
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Eisenkot's party will gain additional Knesset seats in at least one further poll within 7 days, maintaining its lead over Bennett.
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Threats to investigate media figures like Amnon Abramovich will escalate, with the State Prosecutor's Office announcing a formal inquiry within 7 days.
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The open letter to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir will prompt an official IDF investigation into alleged misconduct in the occupied territories within 30 days.
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Efforts to form a new right-center satellite party will become public within 7 days, aiming to capture centrist voters while remaining aligned with Likud.
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Internal pressure on Netanyahu to cancel Likud primaries will intensify over the next 30 days, as party comptroller's ruling and MK opposition create legal and political hurdles.
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Tensions between Likud and Shas will escalate over the Basic Law: Torah Study, leading to a coalition crisis within 30 days.