Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
169 forecasts
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At least one additional Israeli municipality will face a public dispute over banning a party from a public building before election day, extending the Herzliya pattern.
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At least one additional party currently polling near the 3.25% threshold will publicly confirm it is running through election day rather than withdrawing, before October 27.
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Likud's internal tensions over vote cannibalization will intensify, with at least one more public accusation from a right-wing splinter party leader against Likud campaign tactics before October 27.
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The defamation lawsuit filed by Netanyahu against Yoav Horowitz will not be withdrawn or settled before the October 27 election, remaining an active legal proceeding through election day.
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The opposition change bloc will not issue a joint declaration before October 27, given the rejection of Forer's proposal and the ongoing distrust between Eisenkot and Lieberman.
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By the October 27 election, at least one further Israeli party or candidate will issue a formal legal demand over an AI-generated or manipulated campaign video, extending the Golan-Gantz and Eisenkot-Likud pattern into a series rather than two isolated cases.
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Ofer Winter will not withdraw from the Knesset election race within 7 days, despite Netanyahu's pressure and his party polling below the threshold.
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The right-wing bloc's seat count in published polls will not exceed 66 mandates within 30 days, given the current fragmentation and the left-wing bloc's floor of 44. Reference class: Right-wing bloc polling in election campaigns (2019-2026); base rate ~55% for staying below 66. Confidence adjusted up due to the ceiling imposed by the left-wing bloc's stable floor.
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Likud will not gain more than 1 additional seat from the 'October surprise' campaign within 30 days, as the 2-3 seat estimate is optimistic given the current 8% undecided voter pool.
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The state will not fully comply with the High Court ruling on draft dodger arrests by the October 15 deadline, and will instead request an extension or present partial data. Reference class: Israeli government compliance with High Court rulings on Haredi conscription (2017-2025); base rate ~30% for full compliance. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit admission by law enforcement of being 'deterred by Haredi protests'.
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The Central Elections Committee will disqualify at least one candidate or list within 30 days, as the ten petitions filed create pressure for a decision. Reference class: Israeli CEC disqualification rulings in election cycles (2019-2025); base rate ~60% for at least one disqualification. Confidence adjusted up due to the high number of petitions and the focus on Ra'am and Balad. Expected indicators: confirming: CEC announces disqualification of a candidate or list within 30 days; falsifying: CEC rejects all petitions within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will intensify personal attacks on Liberman over the next 30 days, as the Polymarket gap widens and he seeks to consolidate right-wing voters.
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Ben Gvir's public complaint about Netanyahu not answering his calls will lead to at least one additional coalition MK publicly expressing frustration with the Prime Minister's communication style within 30 days.
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The Haifa Magistrate's Court will extend the remand of the Lahav 433 officer's relative at least once more within 30 days, as the investigation into the stabbing continues.
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The controversy over the release of Agam Tzarfati's footage will lead to a formal investigation by the Ministry of Justice or the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee within 30 days.
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Public attacks by coalition MKs on Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional MK publicly labeling him a 'Kaplanist' or similar political epithet. Reference class: Knesset MK attacks on Supreme Court presidents (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new attack within 30 days of a previous one. Confidence adjusted up due to Rothman's explicit framing and the election campaign context.
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Public criticism of the 7-year sentence for Soria Abu Arar will not lead to a formal appeal by the state within 30 days, as the prosecution's position is not yet clear. Reference class: state appeals of lenient sentences in fatal road accidents (2015-2025); base rate ~20% within 30 days of sentencing. Confidence adjusted up due to the absence of immediate prosecution statements.
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The Likud disqualification request against Ra'am will be rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days.
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Police Commissioner Danny Levy will hold a placement discussion for additional officers within 30 days, despite Minister Ben Gvir's refusal to sign off on appointments until after the elections.
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The center-left bloc will not produce a unified list that passes the electoral threshold within 30 days, as personal rivalries and failed merger attempts persist.
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Public tensions within the Change Bloc between Lapid and Eisenkot will become more visible in media reports over the next 30 days. Reference class: Israeli coalition internal conflicts in election campaigns (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for public leaks within 30 days of a vote. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported covert premiership battle.
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The Likud's internal criticism of Bardugo will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly questioning his candidacy or its impact on the party's image.
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Ben-Gvir will not approve senior police officer appointments before the October 27 election, despite police threats to petition the High Court. Reference class: Israeli ministers blocking appointments before elections (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for holding the line. Confidence adjusted up due to Ben-Gvir's stated position and the election proximity.
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The public and political pressure on Netanyahu regarding the October 7 investigations will intensify over the next 30 days, as new evidence of his failure to read them emerges.
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The disciplinary proceedings against police spokesman Aryeh Doron will result in a formal reprimand or suspension within 30 days, as the Police Disciplinary Department moves swiftly on high-profile internal cases.
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The Ja'far Farah sexual harassment allegations will lead to his formal withdrawal from the Hadash list within 30 days, as internal and external pressure mounts.
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Likud will not fall below 19 seats in polls within 30 days, as the party's core base remains stable despite Gottlieb's defection.
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Sara Netanyahu's conspiracy claim against Yair Golan will continue to dominate Israeli political news cycles over the next 7 days, with at least two additional major political figures publicly condemning or defending the statement.
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The Smotrich-Feiglin technical bloc will be finalized and registered within 30 days, but will not include Ben Gvir or Vinter.
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Shas will not secure an explicit exemption from conscription as a formal coalition condition within 30 days, as other coalition partners will resist the demand.
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The Gantz-Erdan merger talks will fail to produce a joint list by the September 8 deadline, as the leadership dispute remains unresolved.
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At least one additional MK from Likud will announce a departure to another party within 30 days, as internal fragmentation accelerates.
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Shas will publicly campaign against Attorney General Baharav-Miara within 30 days, framing the commemoration postponement as a political attack on Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's legacy.
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The demand to reopen Road 463 will not result in a formal government decision within 30 days, as the security establishment's opposition remains unaddressed.
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The push to unite small right-wing parties under a technical bloc will fail within 30 days, as Netanyahu refrains from supporting the move.
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Ofer Winter's party will surpass Religious Zionism in at least one additional public poll within 30 days.
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The Likud primary recount will result in a change to the official list order, altering Gila Gamliel's realistic slot, within 30 days.
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The High Court's freeze on coalition funds will trigger a legislative attempt by coalition MKs to bypass the ruling within 30 days.
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Internal police criticism over the Dayan case collapse will intensify, with at least one public call for an investigation into the investigation within 30 days.
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Internal Shas tensions over the enlistment law will produce at least one more public protest or heckling incident targeting a Shas MK within the next 30 days.
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The Ra'am party's internal cohesion will be tested over the next 30 days, as the primaries may expose factional tensions that spill into public criticism of Abbas's leadership.
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The Ramla stabbing and Kiryat Gat shooting will prompt at least one Knesset member to submit a parliamentary question or call for a committee hearing on domestic violence and public security within 30 days.
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The gap between the opposition and coalition blocs will narrow in the next major poll, as Likud consolidates its base and Yashar's growth plateaus.
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Coalition negotiations will intensify, with at least one new right-wing merger or alliance announced before the September 7 deadline for submitting lists.
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Internal Likud tensions over reserved spots for pushed-back MKs will escalate, with at least one MK publicly threatening to leave the party or vote against coalition discipline within 30 days.
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Bennett's Yashar party will gain at least 2 seats in the next major public opinion poll, as his security-focused messaging and hardline stance on Haredi conscription resonate with right-wing voters.
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The KKL investigation will prompt at least one official inquiry or public statement from KKL leadership within 30 days.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will maintain a lead of at least 15 seats over the coalition in public polls through October, as Likud's internal turmoil and the Yashar party's rise persist.
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Israeli coalition tensions over the Gaza roadmap will intensify, with at least one public statement from a coalition minister criticizing the US-Hamas channel or the plan's terms.
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Tali Gottlieb will not formally join Otzma Yehudit within 30 days, despite reported talks.