Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
101 forecasts
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The Syrian transitional government will announce at least one additional high-profile arrest of a former Assad regime figure within 30 days, continuing the purge of the old guard.
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The student protest movement will form a parliamentary faction within 30 days, with at least one named student leader publicly announcing their candidacy for a seat.
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The police budget dispute will escalate, with Police Commissioner Danny Levi filing a High Court petition within 30 days to secure the delayed 350 million shekels.
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Arab voter turnout in the October 28 Knesset elections will reach at least 65%, up from previous elections, as indicated by Netanyahu's closed-door warning of a 75% surge.
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Moti Leitner's Haredi Public party will fail to pass the electoral threshold in the October 28 elections, resulting in its votes being wasted.
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Internal coalition tensions over Haredi Shabbat observance will produce at least one public resignation or formal coalition crisis within 30 days.
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The opposition's minority government plan will be publicly criticized by at least one additional named party leader (beyond Liberman and Bennett) within 7 days.
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The QatarGate security indictments against Orich and Feldstein will be formally filed within 30 days, given the Mossad opinion transfer.
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The number of homicides in Arab society will exceed 200 by the end of November 2026, continuing the current trend of unchecked violence.
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Netanyahu will publicly commit to a specific military plan for Judea and Samaria within 7 days, either by announcing a preemptive strike or by detailing a response to the Yehuda Junction attack.
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Ahmad Tibi's two-stage plan will be formally endorsed by at least one additional Arab-majority party (beyond the Joint List) within 30 days of the election.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling or interim order within 7 days that imposes additional sanctions on Haredi draft dodgers, beyond the current status quo.
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The combined vote share of small right-wing parties (Amcha Yisrael, Hatzibur Haharedi, Noam LeYisrael, Tzomet Beit Yisrael) will exceed 4.5% in the official election results, preventing them from all being wasted votes.
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At least one of the small lists now polling near the threshold (People of Israel, Charedi Public, Handel-Zalicha) will not appear on the final ballot as an independent list, whether by withdrawal or merger.
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Official Central Elections Committee results will show the combined seat total of lists that fail the 3.25 percent threshold exceeding one full mandate's worth of votes.
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At least one additional sitting Likud MK will publicly state refusal to vote for Likud before election day, extending the Hanegbi pattern.
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In the final week before the Knesset elections, at least one additional party polling near the 3.25% threshold will be the target of a public call by a named right-wing broadcaster or politician to drop out or consolidate, extending the Magal pattern.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! will finish the election with a larger Knesset faction than Likud, judged by the official Central Elections Committee results.
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The 'Brigade C' plan for 700–800 police in Area C will remain unfunded and unlaunched 30 days out, with no published government budget line approving it.
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The Joint List will maintain external-support conditions rather than join any coalition, and no signed coalition agreement listing the Joint List as a member will be submitted to the Knesset within 30 days.
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The Eisenkot bloc's seat advantage over the Netanyahu bloc will narrow or reverse in at least one major poll before election day.
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The 'Relay Race' extortion case will expand, with at least one additional suspect publicly named or arrested within 30 days.
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The Israeli government will approve a defense budget increase for 2026 smaller than the 40 billion shekels the military has requested, with the gap covered by further cuts to civilian ministry budgets or reserve transfers.
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The Gur Hasidic sect's call to vote for United Torah Judaism will hold, with no new boycott threat from the sect emerging before the election.
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The Tekuma Directorate budget will be cut by less than the full NIS 140 million proposed, or the cut will be deferred past the October 27 election, as coalition parties compete for Gaza-envelope voters.
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The Interior Ministry will not impose emergency economic measures on Bnei Brak within 30 days, despite the city's 130 million shekel deficit and the ministry's threat, as the Shas-controlled ministry will seek a negotiated solution.
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No single Israeli party or bloc will secure a decisive 61-seat majority in the certified October 27 Knesset results, leaving coalition formation dependent on at least one cross-bloc partner.
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The Lebanese state will not forcibly disarm Hezbollah's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon within 90 days; the standoff over the 500 kg explosives will remain unresolved or be resolved through a negotiated return.
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The Likud-Religious Zionism observer deployment in Arab polling stations will face at least one legal challenge or public condemnation from a civil rights organization within 30 days.
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The cancellation of the Haredi draft arrest operation will lead to at least one public statement from a High Court justice or former justice criticizing the police decision within 30 days.
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The right-wing bloc will not recover to 61 or more seats in published polls within 30 days, remaining below the governing threshold.
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The proportion of women in the next Knesset will not reach the predicted record of 33; the final number will be 30 or fewer.
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The Irgun Museum in Binyamina will host at least one further publicly reported commemorative event tied to Altalena or Irgun heritage within 90 days, extending the current transfer into a series rather than a one-off.
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The deputy chief of staff post will be filled by a formal IDF announcement naming either Uri Gordin or Yaniv Asor within 90 days, ending the current open contest between the Chief of Staff and the political echelon.
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Kfar Saba Mayor Rafi Saar will remain in detention or under formal restriction and will not return to active mayoral duties within 30 days.
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The vacancy at the head of Israel's Interior Ministry will remain unfilled over the next 30 days, with no new minister sworn in.
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At least one additional Israeli public figure or MK will publicly criticize the Shin Bet's handling of the Samaria security personnel arrest within 30 days, as the case becomes a rallying point for right-wing coalition voices.
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The Knesset will hold at least one formal discussion or committee hearing specifically addressing the phenomenon of domestic violence and femicide within 90 days, following the Be'er Sheva murder confession.
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Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav's demand for a binding 2029 deadline will be publicly endorsed by at least one major party (Likud or Yesh Atid) within 30 days, but no binding Knesset legislation will be advanced before the election.
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At least one additional Israeli party currently polling below the electoral threshold will announce a merger or joint list with another party before the election date.
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Gantz's Blue and White will remain below the electoral threshold in at least two of the next three published Israeli polls over the next 30 days, as his unity pitch fails to consolidate the anti-Netanyahu vote.
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Feiglin's proposal to close two-thirds of ministries will be publicly rejected by at least one coalition partner within 30 days, as it threatens their ministerial portfolios.
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The halted Apache helicopter procurement deal will not be approved before the elections, as Smotrich's position has been accepted by the Attorney General. Reference class: Israeli procurement deals halted by Attorney General in election season (2015-2026); base rate ~85% for remaining blocked until after elections. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit acceptance by Baharav-Miara.
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Coalition internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more senior coalition figure publicly criticizing Netanyahu's Gaza policy within 30 days.
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The opposition bloc's public no-attack pledge will be violated by at least one more recorded incident within 30 days, as internal competition for seats intensifies.
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The political feud between Minister Shikli and Peter Palchik will escalate into a formal complaint or disciplinary action within 90 days, as Shikli's mockery of a Russian accent touches a sensitive nerve among Israel's Russian-speaking community. Reference class: Israeli ministerial disciplinary actions following public ethnic mockery incidents (2015-2026); base rate ~45% for a formal complaint or censure within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Palchik's status as an Olympic medalist and the timing near elections, which heightens scrutiny.
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Eisenkot's Yashar party will maintain a polling lead over Likud in at least one major media poll within 30 days.
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The investigation into the senior judge on suspicion of sex crimes will result in a formal indictment being filed within 30 days, as the judge has already gone on leave pending a decision, indicating the case is advanced.
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Amcha Yisrael will continue to publicly decline to commit exclusively to recommending Netanyahu for prime minister over the next 30 days, keeping open the option of recommending a unity or change-bloc candidate.
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The Brazilian election will proceed to a second round, as no candidate reaches 50% of the total valid votes. Reference class: Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2026); base rate ~80% for a runoff when no candidate has >50% in early counts. Confidence adjusted up due to the early snapshot showing Bolsonaro at 50.74% but with only 32% counted, making a final majority uncertain.