Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
303 forecasts
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The Likud Central Committee's approval of eight reserved places for Netanyahu will be challenged or annulled by a party court within 90 days.
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Saeed Jalili's Paydari movement will intensify public opposition to the Hormuz deal, with at least two major statements or protests within 30 days.
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The Knesset's gender segregation law will face increased public and institutional opposition over the next 30 days, with at least one additional medical school dean publicly condemning it.
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The Together party's seat count in Maariv polls will remain below 20 over the next 30 days, failing to recover from the 15-seat crash.
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Yoav Segalovitz will formally announce his candidacy on the Ra'am slate within 30 days, making him the party's first Jewish candidate.
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The detention of Avraham Hadi will be extended at least once more beyond the current four-day order, as the investigation into the News 12 brick-throwing continues.
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Ben Gvir's public opposition to the ceasefire draft will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement or action calling for continued military operations in Gaza.
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The reserve duty burden will become a more prominent public issue, with at least one major protest or Knesset debate specifically addressing the gap between official limits and actual service.
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The internal pressure on police spokesman Arie Doron will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional senior officer publicly joining the call for his dismissal.
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At least one more prominent figure will announce joining a party or forming a new political list within 30 days, as the October 27 elections approach.
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Likud will intensify legal actions against media outlets perceived as critical over the next 30 days, citing election law violations.
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The coalition tensions over the Chief Rabbinate appointment will lead to a public rift between Shas and Religious Zionism within 90 days.
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The Likud party will formally adopt digital primaries for its candidate selection within 30 days.
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Pressure on Lapid to dissolve the union with Bennett will result in a public announcement of separation within 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
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Internal coalition tensions over the draft exemption will lead to at least one public ultimatum from a Haredi party within 90 days.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
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Iran will execute at least 5 of the 10 young men sentenced to death within 90 days, despite UN calls to halt.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
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The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
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Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
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The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.