Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
184 forecasts
-
The closure of northern border emergency response teams will lead to at least one public protest or legal petition by affected residents within 30 days.
-
Iran's internal crackdown will intensify, with the number of executions surpassing 100 within 90 days, as the regime seeks to suppress dissent amid nuclear negotiations.
-
The coalition heads meeting on June 23 will not result in an immediate decision to dissolve the Knesset, but will produce a public statement reaffirming coalition unity.
-
Colombia's election result will be officially certified within 7 days, with de la Espriella confirmed as winner despite Cepeda's challenge.
-
Coalition internal tensions over the primaries dilemma will intensify, with at least one public threat of a split from a coalition party within 30 days.
-
The opposition bloc's polling lead will narrow but remain above 55 seats over the next 30 days.
-
The ultra-Orthodox protest movement against conscription will expand, with at least two more large demonstrations in the next 30 days.
-
The welfare system crisis will prompt the government to announce a plan to hire at least 500 new social workers within 30 days.
-
The Israeli Ministry of Health will issue a recall or safety alert for 'Prinok' brand fruit puree within 30 days, following the benzodiazepine contamination incident.
-
Coalition infighting over settler violence and Iran response will intensify, with at least one public resignation or ultimatum from a senior minister within 30 days.
-
Eisenkot's party will gain additional Knesset seats in at least one further poll within 7 days, maintaining its lead over Bennett.
-
Threats to investigate media figures like Amnon Abramovich will escalate, with the State Prosecutor's Office announcing a formal inquiry within 7 days.
-
AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will weaken further over the next 90 days, as more candidates emulate Lander's rejection of funding.
-
The open letter to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir will prompt an official IDF investigation into alleged misconduct in the occupied territories within 30 days.
-
Efforts to form a new right-center satellite party will become public within 7 days, aiming to capture centrist voters while remaining aligned with Likud.
-
Internal pressure on Netanyahu to cancel Likud primaries will intensify over the next 30 days, as party comptroller's ruling and MK opposition create legal and political hurdles.
-
Tensions between Likud and Shas will escalate over the Basic Law: Torah Study, leading to a coalition crisis within 30 days.
-
The northern protest movement will expand to other excluded communities, pressuring the government to revise its aid criteria within 90 days.
-
The number of violent incidents in Israel's Arab sector will increase over the next 30 days, as family feuds and organized crime continue unchecked.
-
Coalition internal tensions over ultra-Orthodox conscription will intensify as Shas pushes for equalization of yeshiva students with soldiers.
-
The Knesset will hold a preliminary vote on granting immunity to Tali Gottlieb within 7 days, given the coalition's insistence and majority.
-
The Ramallah government will fail to secure full clearance fund transfers from Israel within 30 days, maintaining its deficit above 1 billion shekels monthly.
-
At least one more violent ultra-Orthodox protest will occur within 7 days, given the pattern of escalation and the riot outside Justice Solberg's home.
-
The Knesset will not pass the law splitting the Attorney General's office before the next election, given opposition from Deputy AG and the need to amend 250 laws.
-
The Likud convention will fail to approve primary regulations by June 25 due to the frozen powers, leading to a court challenge.
-
Haredi protests against conscription will escalate, with at least one more violent incident involving an IDF soldier or police within 7 days.
-
The Hungarian parliament will not pass the constitutional amendment to impeach President Sulyok within 30 days, due to insufficient governing majority.
-
Yair Golan's call to include Arab parties in a future coalition will not result in a formal coalition agreement within 30 days, but will spark public debate among opposition leaders.
-
The Israeli cabinet will approve the north rehabilitation, protection, and tax benefits plan at the special meeting scheduled for June 2, 2026.
-
Yair Golan's call to include Arab parties in a future coalition will lead to a public debate within the opposition, but no formal coalition agreement will be reached within 30 days.
-
The Knesset will hold a discussion on violence against the LGBTQ community within 90 days, following Attorney Nimrod Gorenstein's remarks.
-
Haifa municipality will issue a public statement within 7 days announcing an investigation into the inspector who slapped Ez al-Din Muad.
-
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will deliver a speech within 7 days publicly opposing the emerging US-Iran deal and calling for preserving military options.
-
The Likud party court will reject the motion to cancel primaries, but Netanyahu will announce a new selection mechanism for the party list within 7 days.