Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
272 forecasts
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The Alberta referendum on October 19 will pass with a majority supporting the start of separation talks, but the federal government will refuse to negotiate, citing the non-binding nature of the vote.
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Kosovo's parliament will fail to elect a president within 30 days, triggering early elections.
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The 'Anyone but Bibi' camp's lead over Netanyahu will narrow to within 15 points in at least one major poll over the next 90 days, as the fluid 15% voter market shifts.
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The Afula municipality will face increased public pressure over the market's neglect, leading to at least one official statement or action plan within 90 days.
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Yashar's electoral support will grow in polls over the next 90 days, driven by Eisenkot's security credentials and the opposition's rallying behind him.
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Public confrontations between October 7 victims' families and coalition politicians will increase in frequency over the next 30 days, with at least two more reported incidents in Israeli media.
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Over the next 30 days, public statements by Otzma Yehudit will continue to publicly support Religious Zionism passing the threshold, while privately preparing more attack materials against Smotrich.
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The opposition bloc's seat lead in polls will narrow to within 5 seats of the coalition within 90 days, as small parties fail to cross the threshold.
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The Democrats will publicly propose a specific alternative to the Haredi draft law within 90 days, likely involving phased enlistment targets.
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Turkey's citizenship revocation will expand to at least 7,000 total revocations within 30 days, as the crackdown on sham transactions continues.
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The Jerusalem Faction will intensify protests against Haredi conscription, staging at least two public demonstrations in Jerusalem within 30 days.
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The High Court will rule on the NIS 270 million haredi education transfer within 30 days, either approving or blocking it.
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The Democratic Party's shift away from unconditional support for Israel will intensify, with at least one more incumbent critic of Israel losing a primary within 90 days.
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Public criticism of Netanyahu's handling of Knesset requests will intensify, with at least two additional opposition MKs publicly condemning the PMO's response rate within 30 days.
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The 'crocodile prison' project will face increased legal scrutiny, with at least one additional court ruling or official objection within 30 days.
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The attack on Ilan Manes will lead to a formal police investigation and at least one arrest within 90 days.
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Public criticism of Defense Minister Katz's handling of the Bluth dismissal will intensify, with at least two additional senior political figures issuing public statements against the move.
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The Likud Central Committee's approval of eight reserved places for Netanyahu will be challenged or annulled by a party court within 90 days.
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Erdan will formally rule out sitting in a government that includes at least one of the ultra-Orthodox parties within 30 days.
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The New Hope party's internal conflict over the comptroller ballot scandal will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement from either Sa'ar or Haskel.
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The Knesset's gender segregation law will face increased public and institutional opposition over the next 30 days, with at least one additional medical school dean publicly condemning it.
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Saeed Jalili's Paydari movement will intensify public opposition to the Hormuz deal, with at least two major statements or protests within 30 days.
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The Together party's seat count in Maariv polls will remain below 20 over the next 30 days, failing to recover from the 15-seat crash.
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Yoav Segalovitz will formally announce his candidacy on the Ra'am slate within 30 days, making him the party's first Jewish candidate.
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The detention of Avraham Hadi will be extended at least once more beyond the current four-day order, as the investigation into the News 12 brick-throwing continues.
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Ben Gvir's public opposition to the ceasefire draft will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional public statement or action calling for continued military operations in Gaza.
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The reserve duty burden will become a more prominent public issue, with at least one major protest or Knesset debate specifically addressing the gap between official limits and actual service.
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The internal pressure on police spokesman Arie Doron will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional senior officer publicly joining the call for his dismissal.
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At least one more prominent figure will announce joining a party or forming a new political list within 30 days, as the October 27 elections approach.
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Likud will intensify legal actions against media outlets perceived as critical over the next 30 days, citing election law violations.
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The coalition tensions over the Chief Rabbinate appointment will lead to a public rift between Shas and Religious Zionism within 90 days.
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The Likud party will formally adopt digital primaries for its candidate selection within 30 days.
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Pressure on Lapid to dissolve the union with Bennett will result in a public announcement of separation within 30 days.
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Ben Gvir will publicly demand a specific senior ministry (e.g., Defense or Public Security) as a condition for Otzma Yehudit joining the next coalition within 30 days.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling partially invalidating the amendment that freezes arrests of yeshiva students within 30 days.
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Iran will execute at least 5 of the 10 young men sentenced to death within 90 days, despite UN calls to halt.
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Internal coalition tensions over the draft exemption will lead to at least one public ultimatum from a Haredi party within 90 days.
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The politicization of Mahash will lead to at least one public statement from a senior police or legal figure criticizing the law within 30 days.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.