Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
184 forecasts
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Likud will continue to lose seats in upcoming polls over the next 30 days, falling below 20 seats.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will fail to form a stable coalition government within 90 days after the election, leading to a snap election.
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Arnon Bar-David will face a formal no-confidence motion within the Histadrut within 30 days.
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The Democrats party will face increased internal criticism over its left-wing identity, with at least one prominent Labor-affiliated figure publicly questioning the merger's direction within 90 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over Netanyahu's primary-skip plan will intensify, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly opposing the move to cancel primaries within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will face at least one coalition partner publicly criticizing his handling of the draft exemption crisis within 7 days.
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Internal Likud dissent over religious municipal policies will increase, with at least one more MK publicly criticizing Haredi-driven legislation or local ordinances within 30 days.
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The 'March of the Thousands' will not lead to any formal government policy change regarding settlement expansion or Gaza access within 90 days.
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The police commissioner will face a Knesset committee hearing regarding the Rosh Pina ambush failure within 30 days.
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The opposition's anti-ultra-Orthodox campaign will lose momentum within 90 days, as internal divisions emerge over the lack of alternative policy platforms.
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At least one major Israeli party will adopt a binding gender parity mechanism (zipper list or quota) within 90 days, following pressure from the 5050 project.
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The Israeli Foreign Ministry will face increased scrutiny from Knesset committees over the alleged digital influence operation within 30 days.
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Sharren Haskel's Israel First party will poll above the electoral threshold within 30 days, drawing support primarily from disillusioned Likud voters.
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The High Court will strike down or significantly modify the freeze on arrests of Haredi draft evaders within 30 days, given the precedent of the previous suspension.
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The appointment of Tamir Shneid as PM's spokesperson will be finalized within 90 days, despite potential legal challenges.
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President Herzog will not grant the pardon for Elor Azaria within 30 days, due to IDF opposition and lack of remorse.
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The police will announce a new task force or increased resources to combat organized crime in the Tel Aviv district within 30 days.
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The High Court will issue a ruling on the yeshiva tax benefits petition within 90 days, either dismissing it or ordering further state explanation.
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Eisenkot's lead over Netanyahu in preferred PM polling will narrow to within 5 points within 30 days.
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The 32-month service extension bill will pass its final Knesset votes within 30 days, despite IDF objections and coalition resistance to a longer term.
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The investigation into MK Haim Biton will expand to include additional Shas figures within 30 days.
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The Knesset will not pass the budget for prosecuting Nukhba terrorists before dissolution on July 17, delaying the project until after the election.
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The Likud internal election proposal will be revised to a compromise giving Netanyahu 4-5 reserved slots.
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The arrest of four settlers for attacking a CNN crew will lead to increased political pressure on Israel Police to enforce the law against settler violence, but no significant policy change will occur within 90 days.
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Likud internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more MK announcing departure within 30 days.
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Public discourse on election integrity will intensify, with at least one prominent figure publicly questioning the fairness of the electoral process within 30 days.
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The Supreme Court will face renewed legislative attempts to limit its power of judicial review over Knesset laws within 90 days.
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Coalition tensions over Haredi conscription and budgets will intensify, with at least one public ultimatum from Shas or Ya'adut HaTorah within 30 days.
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The government's defiance of the High Court on the Second Authority Council will lead to a formal petition to the High Court within 30 days, intensifying the constitutional crisis.
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The Shin Bet's involvement in fighting crime in the Arab sector will face legal challenges or delays from the Police Commissioner's opposition within 30 days.
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The national commission of inquiry into October 7 will face political obstacles that delay its formation beyond 90 days.
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Netanyahu's meeting with Trump will not produce a major shift in US policy toward Israel's military operations within 90 days.
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Public criticism of Netanyahu over his October 7 joke will persist, but will not trigger a coalition crisis within 90 days.
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The defense budget dispute between the Defense Ministry and Finance Ministry will intensify, with public statements from both sides but no resolution within 30 days.
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The Western Wall Law will not pass a Knesset vote within 90 days due to coalition infighting.
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Coalition defections will continue, with at least one more local council head leaving Likud within 90 days.
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Smotrich will face increasing public backlash from hostage families, leading to at least one more high-profile confrontation within 30 days.
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Public pressure on the government to address Arab crime will intensify, with at least one coalition MK publicly calling for a state of emergency in Arab communities.
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The Shin Bet leak investigation will face political interference from coalition members within 7 days.
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The Knesset will advance legislation regulating AI in elections within the next 30 days, following the Constitution Committee's discussion.
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Eisenkot's National Unity party will gain at least one additional Knesset seat in polls within 90 days, as his campaign gains traction.
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The DSA's primary victories will intensify the pro-Israel establishment's opposition to the DSA, with at least one major Jewish organization publicly launching a campaign against DSA-endorsed candidates within 30 days.
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Internal Likud opposition to Netanyahu's reserved slots demand will grow, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly criticizing the move within 30 days.
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Internal disagreement within the Israeli government over the duration of the security zone in Lebanon will become more public, with at least one senior minister openly contradicting Katz's 'no withdrawal' stance.
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The number of investigation files opened against minors in 2025 will exceed 2,500 by year-end, reflecting a continued rise in youth crime.
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Internal tensions within the Democrats party will intensify, with at least one more senior figure publicly criticizing Yair Golan's leadership within 30 days.
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Police will face increased public criticism and possibly a Knesset inquiry into the failure to protect state witnesses' families.
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The controversy over the Shin Bet memorial dismantling will lead to at least one public protest by families of fallen officers within 30 days.
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The High Court will rule on the frozen October 7 audit reports within 90 days, likely allowing publication of at least some of the eight blocked reports.
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The Basic Law: Torah Study bill will not pass its final readings within 30 days due to coalition infighting and IDF opposition.