Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
272 forecasts
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Sara Netanyahu's conspiracy claim against Yair Golan will continue to dominate Israeli political news cycles over the next 7 days, with at least two additional major political figures publicly condemning or defending the statement.
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The Smotrich-Feiglin technical bloc will be finalized and registered within 30 days, but will not include Ben Gvir or Vinter.
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Yair Golan will ultimately recommend Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, despite his current non-commitment.
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The settlement expansion in the Hebron Hills will accelerate over the next 90 days, with at least one of the planned settlements (Meged or Ma'ale Enav) seeing families move in.
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The Advisory Committee on Security Affairs will recommend approving Shin Bet security for Gadi Eisenkot within 90 days, but the ministers may delay or reject the recommendation.
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Shas will not secure an explicit exemption from conscription as a formal coalition condition within 30 days, as other coalition partners will resist the demand.
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The Gantz-Erdan merger talks will fail to produce a joint list by the September 8 deadline, as the leadership dispute remains unresolved.
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Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party will not cross the electoral threshold in the October 27 elections, leading to its dissolution.
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The Joint List will not be fully reunited within 90 days, as internal disagreements over seat distribution persist.
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At least one additional MK from Likud will announce a departure to another party within 30 days, as internal fragmentation accelerates.
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Shas will publicly campaign against Attorney General Baharav-Miara within 30 days, framing the commemoration postponement as a political attack on Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's legacy.
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The demand to reopen Road 463 will not result in a formal government decision within 30 days, as the security establishment's opposition remains unaddressed.
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The push to unite small right-wing parties under a technical bloc will fail within 30 days, as Netanyahu refrains from supporting the move.
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The Likud primary recount will result in a change to the official list order, altering Gila Gamliel's realistic slot, within 30 days.
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Ofer Winter's party will surpass Religious Zionism in at least one additional public poll within 30 days.
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Internal police criticism over the Dayan case collapse will intensify, with at least one public call for an investigation into the investigation within 30 days.
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The High Court's freeze on coalition funds will trigger a legislative attempt by coalition MKs to bypass the ruling within 30 days.
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The state comptroller election will not be completed within 90 days, leaving the position vacant through the election period.
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Internal Shas tensions over the enlistment law will produce at least one more public protest or heckling incident targeting a Shas MK within the next 30 days.
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AIPAC's influence in Democratic primaries will decline measurably over the next 90 days, as at least one major Democratic candidate will explicitly refuse AIPAC endorsement or funding.
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The Ra'am party's internal cohesion will be tested over the next 30 days, as the primaries may expose factional tensions that spill into public criticism of Abbas's leadership.
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Gideon Sa'ar will face increased criticism from within the coalition for his remarks on the 2021 government, potentially leading to a public rebuke from a coalition partner within 90 days.
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The Ramla stabbing and Kiryat Gat shooting will prompt at least one Knesset member to submit a parliamentary question or call for a committee hearing on domestic violence and public security within 30 days.
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Gilad Erdan's new party Achdut will fail to cross the electoral threshold in at least one major poll within 90 days.
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Coalition negotiations will intensify, with at least one new right-wing merger or alliance announced before the September 7 deadline for submitting lists.
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The gap between the opposition and coalition blocs will narrow in the next major poll, as Likud consolidates its base and Yashar's growth plateaus.
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Internal Likud tensions over reserved spots for pushed-back MKs will escalate, with at least one MK publicly threatening to leave the party or vote against coalition discipline within 30 days.
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The new 'Third Camp on the Right' merger will fail to cross the electoral threshold in the next major public opinion poll, polling below 3.25% of the vote.
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Bennett's Yashar party will gain at least 2 seats in the next major public opinion poll, as his security-focused messaging and hardline stance on Haredi conscription resonate with right-wing voters.
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The KKL investigation will prompt at least one official inquiry or public statement from KKL leadership within 30 days.
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The Knesset will hold a public hearing on the failure to protect northern educational institutions within 30 days.
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The anti-Netanyahu bloc will maintain a lead of at least 15 seats over the coalition in public polls through October, as Likud's internal turmoil and the Yashar party's rise persist.
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Israeli coalition tensions over the Gaza roadmap will intensify, with at least one public statement from a coalition minister criticizing the US-Hamas channel or the plan's terms.
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Netanyahu's request for eight reserved slots will be partially granted, with at least four slots allocated by the party's central committee within 90 days.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list where at least one MK who scored below 90% compatibility with Likud in the Walla questionnaire will be placed in a non-realistic slot, indicating internal friction.
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Tali Gottlieb will not formally join Otzma Yehudit within 30 days, despite reported talks.
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The Knesset will not cancel the budget transfers approved during the election recess within 30 days, as the legal adviser's opposition will hold.
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Yosef Haddad's 'Israel Amitza' party will either merge with Ofer Winter's faction or announce a formal alliance within 30 days, as both seek to consolidate right-wing support.
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The Likud primaries will produce a list that includes Tally Gotliv in a top-10 slot, despite Netanyahu's concerns about seat loss.
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Avraham Burg's entry into the Knesset race will increase media coverage of left-wing opposition parties by at least 20% over the next 30 days.
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The Likud party will face an internal disciplinary review or public call for Kleiner's resignation over his admission about 'creative methods' in list slots.
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The anti-Netanyahu opposition will fail to present a unified candidate list for the October 27 elections, with at least two separate slates remaining.
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The Central Elections Committee will issue at least one additional ruling on election propaganda involving children or public figures within the next 30 days, beyond the Netanyahu video order.
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The Attorney General's opposition to Mahash appointments will lead to a public clash with the government, with at least one formal legal challenge or public statement from either side within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's personal promises to Likud MKs will face public challenge or leak within 30 days, as internal factions dispute the allocations.
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The Central Elections Committee will present a plan to the High Court by August 17 that includes at least 290 alternative accessible polling stations, but will face further court challenges over adequacy.
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Likud's internal tensions over reserved slots will intensify, with at least one additional public dispute or court petition filed within 30 days.
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The Democrats will face sustained internal criticism over leadership decisions, with at least one additional public resignation or high-profile complaint within 90 days.
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The IDF will face increased public and political pressure over West Bank outpost policy, with at least one new report or Knesset discussion on nationalist crime within 30 days.
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Likud will formally declare Dan Ilouz and Yuli Edelstein as defectors within 30 days if they do not resign, as threatened by MK Avichai Boaron.