Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
272 forecasts
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Feiglin's proposal to close two-thirds of ministries will be publicly rejected by at least one coalition partner within 30 days, as it threatens their ministerial portfolios.
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The halted Apache helicopter procurement deal will not be approved before the elections, as Smotrich's position has been accepted by the Attorney General. Reference class: Israeli procurement deals halted by Attorney General in election season (2015-2026); base rate ~85% for remaining blocked until after elections. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit acceptance by Baharav-Miara.
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The opposition bloc's public no-attack pledge will be violated by at least one more recorded incident within 30 days, as internal competition for seats intensifies.
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Coalition internal tensions will escalate, with at least one more senior coalition figure publicly criticizing Netanyahu's Gaza policy within 30 days.
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The political feud between Minister Shikli and Peter Palchik will escalate into a formal complaint or disciplinary action within 90 days, as Shikli's mockery of a Russian accent touches a sensitive nerve among Israel's Russian-speaking community. Reference class: Israeli ministerial disciplinary actions following public ethnic mockery incidents (2015-2026); base rate ~45% for a formal complaint or censure within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Palchik's status as an Olympic medalist and the timing near elections, which heightens scrutiny.
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Eisenkot's Yashar party will maintain a polling lead over Likud in at least one major media poll within 30 days.
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The investigation into the senior judge on suspicion of sex crimes will result in a formal indictment being filed within 30 days, as the judge has already gone on leave pending a decision, indicating the case is advanced.
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Amcha Yisrael will continue to publicly decline to commit exclusively to recommending Netanyahu for prime minister over the next 30 days, keeping open the option of recommending a unity or change-bloc candidate.
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Eisenkot's debate challenge will not be accepted by Netanyahu within 30 days, as the Likud leader avoids a direct confrontation that could unify the opposition. Reference class: Israeli prime ministers accepting debate challenges from opposition leaders (2000-2026); base rate ~35% for acceptance within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Netanyahu's consistent avoidance of one-on-one debates in recent campaigns.
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The Brazilian election will proceed to a second round, as no candidate reaches 50% of the total valid votes. Reference class: Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2026); base rate ~80% for a runoff when no candidate has >50% in early counts. Confidence adjusted up due to the early snapshot showing Bolsonaro at 50.74% but with only 32% counted, making a final majority uncertain.
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The Knesset will not pass a law establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 massacre within 90 days, given the opposition's lack of a majority and coalition resistance. Reference class: Israeli parliamentary attempts to establish state commissions (2006-2026); base rate ~20% for passage within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the coalition's stated opposition and the upcoming elections.
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The right-wing bloc's seat count in published polls will not exceed 66 mandates within 30 days, given the current fragmentation and the left-wing bloc's floor of 44. Reference class: Right-wing bloc polling in election campaigns (2019-2026); base rate ~55% for staying below 66. Confidence adjusted up due to the ceiling imposed by the left-wing bloc's stable floor.
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The Knesset will hold at least one formal debate on the October 7 warnings and failures within the next 30 days, triggered by the new disclosures.
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The Likud petition against the Fly&Vote project will be partially rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days, allowing the project to proceed with modifications.
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The internal dispute between Defense Minister Katz and Maj. Gen. Blot over administrative orders will lead to a formal meeting or public statement within 30 days, but not to Blot's removal.
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The Shin Bet will not provide security for Gadi Eisenkot before the October 27, 2026 elections, despite the High Court petition.
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Likud will not formally distance itself from Itzik Bonzel's Facebook post against Yocheved Lifshitz within 90 days, as the party has not done so in the past 12 hours. Reference class: Likud responses to controversial statements by party candidates (2020-2025); base rate ~50% for no formal distancing within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to Bonzel's 29th slot on the list and his son's death, which complicates party discipline.
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The criminal investigation into Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar for the theft of a mobile phone will not result in formal charges within 90 days. Reference class: Hungarian political corruption investigations (2010-2025); base rate ~40% for charges within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile nature and the prime minister's own request to waive immunity, but down due to potential political maneuvering.
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Smotrich's call for war in Judea and Samaria will not be translated into a formal cabinet vote or IDF operational order within 30 days, as it remains a rhetorical position rather than a policy shift.
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Likud will not gain more than 1 additional seat from the 'October surprise' campaign within 30 days, as the 2-3 seat estimate is optimistic given the current 8% undecided voter pool.
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The opposition bloc will fail to reach the 63-65 seat target set by Eisenkot within 90 days, as internal divisions over leadership and the Ra'am exclusion reduce coalition-building flexibility.
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The state will not fully comply with the High Court ruling on draft dodger arrests by the October 15 deadline, and will instead request an extension or present partial data. Reference class: Israeli government compliance with High Court rulings on Haredi conscription (2017-2025); base rate ~30% for full compliance. Confidence adjusted up due to the explicit admission by law enforcement of being 'deterred by Haredi protests'.
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The Central Elections Committee will disqualify at least one candidate or list within 30 days, as the ten petitions filed create pressure for a decision. Reference class: Israeli CEC disqualification rulings in election cycles (2019-2025); base rate ~60% for at least one disqualification. Confidence adjusted up due to the high number of petitions and the focus on Ra'am and Balad. Expected indicators: confirming: CEC announces disqualification of a candidate or list within 30 days; falsifying: CEC rejects all petitions within 30 days.
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Netanyahu will intensify personal attacks on Liberman over the next 30 days, as the Polymarket gap widens and he seeks to consolidate right-wing voters.
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Ben Gvir's demand to execute the Neve Tzuf terrorist will not result in an execution order being signed within 90 days, as legal and procedural hurdles delay the process.
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The 102,000 new Russian and Ukrainian immigrant voters will not coalesce into a single voting bloc for any one party, as their diverse political backgrounds and lack of a unifying leader will fragment their electoral impact across at least three different lists. Reference class: Immigrant voting patterns in Israeli elections (1990s Russian aliyah, 2010s French aliyah); base rate ~70% for fragmentation across multiple parties in a first election. Confidence adjusted down due to the absence of a dedicated immigrant party or leader.
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President Herzog will not issue a public pardon for Netanyahu before the next election, as his 'solely substantive' stance suggests he will wait for a political resolution.
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Ben Gvir's public complaint about Netanyahu not answering his calls will lead to at least one additional coalition MK publicly expressing frustration with the Prime Minister's communication style within 30 days.
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The Haifa Magistrate's Court will extend the remand of the Lahav 433 officer's relative at least once more within 30 days, as the investigation into the stabbing continues.
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The Swedish center-left bloc led by Magdalena Andersson will succeed in forming a government within 90 days, given its narrow 176-seat majority.
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The controversy over the release of Agam Tzarfati's footage will lead to a formal investigation by the Ministry of Justice or the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee within 30 days.
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Public attacks by coalition MKs on Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional MK publicly labeling him a 'Kaplanist' or similar political epithet. Reference class: Knesset MK attacks on Supreme Court presidents (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for a new attack within 30 days of a previous one. Confidence adjusted up due to Rothman's explicit framing and the election campaign context.
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Public criticism of the 7-year sentence for Soria Abu Arar will not lead to a formal appeal by the state within 30 days, as the prosecution's position is not yet clear. Reference class: state appeals of lenient sentences in fatal road accidents (2015-2025); base rate ~20% within 30 days of sentencing. Confidence adjusted up due to the absence of immediate prosecution statements.
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Ofer Vinter's Amcha Yisrael party will not pass the electoral threshold in the next elections, as Likud's campaign against him will consolidate the right-wing vote.
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The Likud disqualification request against Ra'am will be rejected by the Central Elections Committee within 30 days.
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Police Commissioner Danny Levy will hold a placement discussion for additional officers within 30 days, despite Minister Ben Gvir's refusal to sign off on appointments until after the elections.
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The center-left bloc will not produce a unified list that passes the electoral threshold within 30 days, as personal rivalries and failed merger attempts persist.
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Public tensions within the Change Bloc between Lapid and Eisenkot will become more visible in media reports over the next 30 days. Reference class: Israeli coalition internal conflicts in election campaigns (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for public leaks within 30 days of a vote. Confidence adjusted up due to the reported covert premiership battle.
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The leadership change in Degel HaTorah from Gafni to Asher will not lead to a significant shift in the party's stance on Haredi conscription within 90 days, as Asher's institutional loyalty outweighs generational change. Reference class: Israeli Haredi party policy shifts after leadership transitions (2003-2025); base rate ~20% for a substantive policy change within 90 days. Confidence adjusted down due to Asher's deep roots in the Lithuanian yeshiva world.
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The Netanyahu bloc will not reach 61 seats in the October 27 election, given the fragmentation on the right and the failure to recruit Haddad. Reference class: Israeli right-wing bloc performance in elections with threshold-dwelling parties (2003-2025); base rate ~30% for reaching 61 seats. Confidence adjusted up due to Winter's marginal position and the 640,000 first-time voters who lean anti-Netanyahu.
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The Likud's internal criticism of Bardugo will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Likud figure publicly questioning his candidacy or its impact on the party's image.
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The loophole exploited by Strock and Otzma Yehudit for separate party registration will not be closed by legislation within 90 days, as the coalition lacks the majority and will to amend the party funding law before the election.
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Ben-Gvir will not approve senior police officer appointments before the October 27 election, despite police threats to petition the High Court. Reference class: Israeli ministers blocking appointments before elections (2015-2025); base rate ~60% for holding the line. Confidence adjusted up due to Ben-Gvir's stated position and the election proximity.
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The Likud will not finalize an agreement to bring Gabi Ashkenazi onto its list within 90 days, as internal party resistance and Ashkenazi's conditions will stall the offer. Reference class: Likud high-profile candidate recruitment (2015-2025); base rate ~40% for successful integration within 90 days of an offer. Confidence adjusted up due to Ashkenazi's independent political history and Likud's existing factional tensions.
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The High Court ruling on expatriate voting will not be overturned by legislation within 90 days, as the coalition lacks the necessary majority and political will. Reference class: Israeli legislative responses to High Court rulings (2015-2025); base rate ~30% for an override within 90 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the narrow scope of the petition (100 people) and the coalition's focus on other issues.
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The fragmentation of the Israeli Right will lead to at least one new party alliance or merger announcement within 90 days, as smaller parties seek to avoid falling below the electoral threshold.
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The public and political pressure on Netanyahu regarding the October 7 investigations will intensify over the next 30 days, as new evidence of his failure to read them emerges.
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The disciplinary proceedings against police spokesman Aryeh Doron will result in a formal reprimand or suspension within 30 days, as the Police Disciplinary Department moves swiftly on high-profile internal cases.
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The Ja'far Farah sexual harassment allegations will lead to his formal withdrawal from the Hadash list within 30 days, as internal and external pressure mounts.
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Likud will not fall below 19 seats in polls within 30 days, as the party's core base remains stable despite Gottlieb's defection.