Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
119 forecasts
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The Ukrainian government will issue a formal public statement either confirming or denying the energy ceasefire with Russia within 7 days. Reference class: Ukrainian official denials of uncoordinated ceasefire announcements (2022-2026); base rate ~70% for a clarifying statement within 7 days. Confidence adjusted down due to the Financial Times report already signaling denial.
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Netanyahu's UN attack on Mamdani will not lead to a formal apology or retraction from the Prime Minister's Office within 30 days. Reference class: Israeli PM responses to criticism from US Jewish leaders (2015-2025); base rate ~20% for apology/retraction. Confidence adjusted up due to the current political climate and Netanyahu's consistent refusal to back down from such attacks.
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Erdogan's statement of no hostility toward Israelis will not be followed by a public meeting or phone call between Turkish and Israeli officials within 30 days, given the current diplomatic freeze.
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The Lavrov-Rubio meeting will not lead to any announced agreement on Ukraine within 30 days, as the fundamental positions of both sides remain unchanged. Reference class: US-Russia meetings on Ukraine since 2022; base rate ~10% for any agreement. Confidence adjusted up due to the lack of prior progress.
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Indonesia will not announce any formal normalization steps with Israel within 30 days, as President Prabowo's pro-Palestinian speech signals a shift away from previous signals. Reference class: Indonesian government announcements on Israel normalization (2020-2026); base rate ~20% for a formal step within 30 days of a pro-Palestinian speech. Confidence adjusted up due to the strength of the 'Free Palestine' declaration.
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The US will not announce a formal sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, despite the State Department approval, as congressional review and regional objections delay the final contract.
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The US will announce a new round of sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks within 30 days, as the Treasury's BitBank action signals a broader crackdown. Reference class: US sanctions rounds on Iran (2020-2025); base rate ~70% within 30 days of a prior sanctions action. Confidence adjusted down due to the possibility of diplomatic restraint ahead of UNGA.
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Saudi Arabia will announce a formal request to China for mediation with the Houthis within 30 days, following its reported turn to Beijing for help curbing the group.
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Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will face increased political opposition from Hezbollah-aligned factions within 30 days, following his visit to Nabatieh and call for state sovereignty.
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The upcoming Washington meeting between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors will produce a joint statement or framework for further talks, but will not result in a substantive ceasefire or disarmament agreement within 30 days.
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At least one additional Arab state will publicly distance itself from either Algeria or the UAE within 30 days of the severance announcement.
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The shift in Palestinian public opinion toward negotiations will be cited by at least one Western foreign ministry as a basis for renewed peace initiative discussions within 30 days.
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The UK-Israel diplomatic confrontation over personal sanctions will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one additional Israeli retaliatory measure beyond the street renaming proposal.
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The public tension between US ambassador Huckabee's stated positions and Israeli ministerial rhetoric on Gaza deportation will intensify over the next 30 days.
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The Witkoff-Kushner mission to Moscow and Kyiv will not produce a public ceasefire framework within 30 days of their visit. Reference class: US diplomatic missions to Russia-Ukraine talks (2022-2026); base rate ~25% for a public framework within 30 days. Confidence adjusted up due to the high-profile envoys and renewed US focus, but down due to entrenched positions. Expected indicators: confirming — no joint statement or framework announced within 30 days; falsifying — a public ceasefire framework is announced. Prerequisites: []
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The US will not announce a withdrawal of naval forces from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, despite internal debate, as the risk of a global energy crisis remains high.
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Additional European countries will announce purchases of Israeli air-defense systems within 30 days, following the Achilles Shield deal and the LORA test. Reference class: European air-defense procurement from Israel (2021-2025); base rate ~80% for follow-on deals within 30 days of a major test. Confidence adjusted up due to the LORA test's strategic timing amid tensions with Russia.
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Britain will announce its comprehensive package of measures regarding Israeli settlements within 30 days, as Miliband's stated timeline narrows the window for delay.
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China will announce new investment deals with Egypt worth at least $5 billion within 30 days of Xi's visit, as part of the Belt and Road expansion.
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Iran will not return to nuclear negotiations with the US within the next 30 days, as it conditions talks on the US first fulfilling commitments, a precondition the administration is unlikely to meet.
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Saudi Arabia will seek alternative military partners for the Houthi campaign within 30 days, after the US refusal to lead.
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The Volkswagen-Iron Dome production deal will face a public veto threat from the Qatari investment fund within 30 days, potentially delaying the conversion of the Osnabrück plant.
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CIA Director Ratcliffe's unannounced Moscow visit will be followed by a public statement from the Kremlin or the White House confirming a specific area of discussion within 30 days.
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Turkish diplomatic pressure on Syria will intensify over the next 30 days, following the US delisting and Israeli-Syrian talks.
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Pakistan will publicly announce a mediation initiative between the US and Iran within 30 days, leveraging Munir's visit to Tehran.
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US special envoys will increasingly preface remarks on occupied territories with explicit disclaimers that they are describing UN positions, not US policy, over the next 30 days.
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The US will not allow Mahmoud Abbas to address the UN General Assembly next month, despite his appeal to Erdogan.
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Diplomatic pressure on Israel over the World Central Kitchen killings will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one more country summoning Israel's ambassador or issuing a formal protest.
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Over the next 30 days, the US-Hamas channel will produce at least one public statement from either side confirming progress on the 15-point roadmap, but no final agreement on Hamas disarmament will be announced.
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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Gulf states will increase public criticism of the US military presence over the next 30 days, with at least two official statements or media reports questioning basing agreements.
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Japan will issue a formal diplomatic protest to Russia over the Kuril visit and escalate rhetoric in the coming 30 days.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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Egypt will publicly comment on the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan alliance within 30 days, either endorsing or distancing itself from joining.
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Spain will begin transferring migrant minors from Ceuta to mainland Spain within 30 days, prioritizing girls as announced.
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Iranian parliamentary pressure to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one formal committee vote on the bill.
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The political-security cabinet will approve a harsher military response in southern Lebanon within 30 days, despite US pressure.
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The Board of Peace will revise its disarmament plan to address Israel's objections within 30 days.
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Rebeca Grynspan will face increased scrutiny from permanent Security Council members over her stance on Israel-Palestine issues, potentially affecting her candidacy.
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Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
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The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
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The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
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Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.