Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
68 forecasts
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The US-Iran 'talks' will remain unacknowledged by Iran over the next 30 days, with no official meeting between US and Iranian officials confirmed by either side.
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US-Israel intelligence friction over Iran will surface publicly, with at least one official or leaked report questioning Israeli credibility on Iranian threats within 90 days.
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Iran will publicly reiterate or expand its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz in at least one official statement or interview within 90 days.
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Iran will not agree to joint management of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, maintaining its demand for majority control.
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The US will publicly endorse Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities within 30 days, following the Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
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The US will impose new sanctions on Iranian state media outlets Mehr and Tasnim within 30 days in response to the threats against Melania Trump.
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The Adams-Pahlavi meeting will be followed by at least one public statement of support from a major Israeli political figure within 30 days.
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The proposed London summit on the Strait of Hormuz will convene within 30 days, with participation from at least 20 of the 40 invited countries.
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The security cabinet will authorize a new operational directive targeting Iranian proxy cells in the West Bank within 30 days.
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The Temple Mount status quo will be reaffirmed by a public statement from the Prime Minister's Office or the Defense Ministry within 30 days, following today's right-wing ascension.
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The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement signed tonight will face at least one formal objection from a European ally within 30 days.
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Netanyahu's US trip will be officially confirmed or canceled within 7 days.
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Pakistan will publicly reaffirm its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia within 30 days, amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
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The Strait of Hormuz will remain partially navigable for commercial shipping over the next 30 days, despite Iranian threats, as both sides avoid a full blockade.
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Saudi Arabia will publicly reiterate its conditions for normalization with Israel, including the replacement of Netanyahu, within 30 days.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify, with at least one Gulf state publicly condemning Iran's actions within 30 days.
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Egyptian mediation efforts will intensify but fail to produce a ceasefire breakthrough within 30 days due to Hamas refusal to disarm.
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The bill to freeze additional funds to the Palestinian Authority will advance to a second reading within 30 days, but will face legal challenges.
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Iraq's deadline for militia disarmament will not be met, leading to increased tensions with the US.
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The US revocation of the Iranian oil permit will lead to increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, likely resulting in further attacks on commercial vessels.
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Emanuel's criticism of Netanyahu will be echoed by additional US Democratic figures, increasing pressure on the administration to condition aid.
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The water dispute with Jordan will escalate diplomatically, with Jordan raising the issue at the UN or Arab League within 30 days.
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NATO summit will not agree to Trump's 5% GDP demand; final communiqué will reference a lower target or no specific number.
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The EU will not impose trade restrictions on Judea and Samaria products within 30 days, but the proposal will generate diplomatic friction.
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US will not approve F-35 sale to Turkey within 30 days, but the issue will remain publicly contested.
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The US-Israel relationship will see increased public friction over military operations, with at least one more critical statement from a senior US official within 30 days.
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Israel-Venezuela relations will advance to the opening of a diplomatic representative office within 90 days, following the aid delegation.
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The US review of military cooperation with Saudi Arabia will lead to a formal reduction in joint exercises or arms sales within 90 days.
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Turkey will retaliate diplomatically against Israel within 30 days, possibly by expelling the Israeli ambassador or downgrading relations.
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The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will intensify, with Iran rejecting the US demand for free navigation and possibly conducting naval exercises in the strait.
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The US-Iran talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will not take place as announced, due to conflicting statements from both sides.
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Slovenia's embassy move to Jerusalem will face procedural delays or EU pushback over the next 30 days.
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Iran's legal campaign against Israel and the US will gain symbolic traction in non-aligned forums over the next 30 days, but will not result in formal proceedings.
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Israeli public criticism of Vice President Vance will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one senior Israeli official publicly questioning his reliability.
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Diplomatic pressure on Iran will intensify over the next 30 days, with the US seeking to rally Arab states against Iran.
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The US will establish a backchannel communication with Iran within 30 days to prevent accidental clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Israeli public diplomacy efforts will intensify over the next 30 days, with at least one new government initiative aimed at improving Israel's image among American Jews and Democrats.
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Iran will continue to deny any agreement on nuclear inspections despite U.S. claims, leading to a stalemate in negotiations within 30 days.
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The IAEA inspectors will not physically arrive in Iran within the next 7 days despite Vance's announcement, due to internal Iranian opposition.
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The US-Iran talks will produce a framework agreement within 30 days, but implementation will face delays due to internal opposition in both countries.
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The US-Qatar humanitarian fund release for Iran will be delayed by at least 30 days due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
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The Meloni-Trump photo-op dispute will lead to a cooling of US-Italy bilateral engagements over the next 30 days, with at least one scheduled high-level meeting postponed or canceled.
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European Union divisions on Israel sanctions will widen, with at least two more member states publicly opposing sanctions in the next 30 days.
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Israeli public distrust of Trump on the Iran deal will remain above 65% over the next 30 days, as measured by subsequent polls.
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The US will publicly reiterate its demand for Israel to halt operations in Lebanon within 30 days, but Israel will not comply.
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European countries will announce concrete conditions for lifting sanctions on Iran within 7 days.
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The US-Iran memorandum will be signed on June 14 despite Iranian denials, but will face immediate implementation hurdles.
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Netanyahu will publicly reject the emerging US-Iran nuclear deal within 30 days, citing security concerns.
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The Board of Peace's Gaza governance plan will face significant delays as Tony Blair's expanded role fails to overcome differences among stakeholders.
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The release of Hassan Yousef will amplify internal pressure on Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire, as his moderate stance may be leveraged by external mediators.